Snowlover34
Member
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Misc Cold Season Complaining
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
He posts on AmericanWx
BHS1975
Member
Missed him talking about the great Gainesville radiator.
NoSnowATL
Member
Make Larry Great Again
StoneColdHeel
Member
I guess he likes talking to himself.
Brent
Member
The GFS having a snow hole all day here is just crazy. It runs for 16 days!!
I need to see if Tulsa has ever had a winter with zero snow before January 20th. I bet not
I need to see if Tulsa has ever had a winter with zero snow before January 20th. I bet not
Roswellian
Member
I was going to ask, is it just a preference thing to post on American vs here? I’m a world class lurker and I don’t even bother lurking over there. #southernwxloyal
NoSnowATL
Member
Old Navy = GAP kinda thang
I think it's more along the lines of people who just want to check for new posts every couple of days vs every couple minutes.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
1900-1904 was a particularly bad period for snow in Tulsa. There was 0.0" in 1900-01 and 1903-04.
StoneColdHeel
Member
I think I am more likely to get snow this winter than UNC is to make the NCAA tournament this year.
Brent
Member
I've always found it weird those are actually the only truly snowless winters here. Like even some recent ones that were bad still had an inch
Now 21-22 all the snow was after January but still January at least had flakes. To not even have a flake is just shocking
Its interesting to see modeling trying to converge on a solution of leaving our potent wave out in the West, or even the Pacific now.
Imagine that. The Southeast always finds a way to no snow.
Imagine that. The Southeast always finds a way to no snow.
NCSNOW
Member
Wheres those probability maps showing some of us at 80-90% for 1 inch plus accum over next 10 days? Heck i was at like 50-60% for 3 inches at one time lol.
Brent
Member
Don't feel alone like I said we have a 9 inch climo here and it's entirely possible we may wipe out half of January with nothing still
And last year winter was over mid February...
NCSNOW
Member
Climate change
Brent
Member
Models are pathetic especially when it comes to winter weather in the SE. That's all I'm going to say about that. lol
Brent
Member
Yeah all I've heard for 6 weeks now is how such a great pattern was coming and yet here we sit... Not one flake. Not even close either...
I'm going to quit this crap of following weather one of these days...
lol
StoneColdHeel
Member
Probably end up with no snow and UNC missing the tournament this year.
This is one of my issues with probability forecasting, which has gained a lot of traction in recent years. What does an 80-90% probability of 1" of snow mean? Any 80-90% chance of getting 1" snow, right?
Well, no, as it turns out. There is no scenario where an ensemble suite can actually give you an 80% probability of 1" of snow 7+ days out. I mean, it can show that, but in reality, you do not actually have an 80% chance of getting 1" of snow.
It's fun to look at all those images, but they don't mean anything at all...other than there is a period of interest that you should pay closer attention to.
Brent
Member
I'm going to quit this crap of following weather one of these days...
Yeah good luck. It's like a sickness and there's no cure
Yup. Had this sickness for far to longYeah good luck. It's like a sickness and there's no cure
StoneColdHeel
Member
I have actually wondered the last two years why I do it. It's not like following the models and all and seeing what they show a week to 10 days or more out is going to change things one way or the other. Why do we need to know so far in advance if it's going to snow or not?I'm going to quit this crap of following weather one of these days...
Brent
Member
I mean I think I said it earlier in the thread but the last two winters here a storm has fallen apart in the final 12 hours and yet I sit here looking at models a week out...
Like make it make sense
And don't even get me started on 300 hours. I've seen enough of those for the entire winter
You nailed it. I have railed against probability forecasting my entire career. It's a crutch for mainly broadcast meteorologists to lean on as easy and visible justification for their forecasts. It's horse
IMO. It's also very easy to use to misrepresent to fit a narrative - IYKYK.
Exactly. The "probabilities" change with every model run, sometimes substantially. That's not a probability. That is just another pretty model chart.You nailed it. I have railed against probability forecasting my entire career. It's a crutch for mainly broadcast meteorologists to lean on as easy and visible justification for their forecasts. It's horse
I don’t even like ensembles. Much less a probability map. If I had a nickel for every time I was lead on by one of those I’d have a pocket full of change
Twister
Member
Maybe one of these days We will learn if a Storm is showing up in a particular Timeframe, To not look at it again until it's with 5 days of Happening. Watching every run know good and well a run 10 days out is not verifying is pretty useless and really not even fun
It's why I said what I said the other day about it being less stressful when you only had the MRF, which I think only went out to 7 days.
Heard this one before. Its impossible to do that anymore. However, sometimes I wish it was like pre 1999 for me (when I found the interwebs of weather) and I had to watch TWC on the 8th to see what was up
You know, I remember a time we didn't get along so well
. You've become one of my favorite posters. You literally just described my own creed on ensembles and probability maps. Kudos on your pattern discussions recently too, btw 
.
Round Oak Weather
Member
The mood is not good tonight. Really though I remember from 2010-2014 when all I did was watch the weather channel. It felt like it snowed almost every year and sometimes even twice. Now I wonder how it even did. The last snow I had was the clipper that tapped the gulf. It gave me an inch of snow in 2018
StoneColdHeel
Member
I used to just read the RAH forecast discussions and see if they were talking about snow. Then one year they were talking about a storm and I wondered if there were online forums where people talked about the weather. That's how I ended up at American and then here. Sometimes I think maybe it would be better to go back to just reading the forecast discussion and if they mention a possible storm then come here to check things out.
I appreciate that I think. I grew up a cold blooded winter freak. As a kid I would buy weather books from Barnes and Noble just to skim through them in my bed at night. Had to have the farmers almanac every year to see when I was going to get snow. My weather knowledge is subpar compared to most of you guys but I generally know what I’m looking for. Most of what I’ve learned is from following these boards for the last 15-20 years. There’s a wealth of knowledge here for closet weather nerds. You just have to be willing to try at times.
You know, I remember a time we didn't get along so well
NCSNOW
Member
And nailed blzzard of 93 from 5 days out. I was in mtns for that one an twc, local mets saw it coming from the get go. Had to be all they had to use for a tool back then.
Back in pre internet days all we had where tv mets, noaa radio, am radio with bastardi, accuwx calling in on live shows every morning. Have to arrange your schedule around not missing broadcast to keep up. I got same sickness today model chasing.
It's annoying that software and scripts for handling model data natively suck for the average Windows user. This includes other foreign model sources.
Like, can we finally get Fortran and Perl out of the NWS and get with the time of Python or not? It's INFURIATING how crap from like the 1970s is still being used in some of the core of our weather forecasting toolsets.
Like, can we finally get Fortran and Perl out of the NWS and get with the time of Python or not? It's INFURIATING how crap from like the 1970s is still being used in some of the core of our weather forecasting toolsets.