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Misc Cold Season Complaining

GFS just seems like it’s been catching up to other modeling this whole new pattern IMO. Not really paying attention to it honestly, especially this far out. I want Euro and EPS, Ukmet, and CMC clown maps to feel like it actually has a chance.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Always wait until the current system passes so models can see more clearly. With that said, still a chance of a major winter storm given cold air is on our side of the globe. 🌏
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This is one of the most popular and widely applied modern forecasting ideas that most often holds little merit.

Also on the list are:

The table-setter and

It can't cut into a block like that
 
weatherfide said:
Well, crap, this is going to be plastered all over the interwebs now... Everyone's going to be talking about it without understanding the actual low probability.View attachment 158440
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Death No GIF
 
jrips27 said:
2025 Masters in jeopardy lol. Shoutout Macon and Augusta
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The possibility of this actual outcome is next to zero but if it happened as modeled I would be pretty crushed. Not from snow but from seeing Macon to CAE get crushed. I want them to get theirs too but if they're getting 2 feet and I only get 7 inches I am going to feel cheated.☃️
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
The possibility of this actual outcome is next to zero but if it happened as modeled I would be pretty crushed. Not from snow but from seeing Macon to CAE get crushed. I want them to get theirs too but if they're getting 2 feet and I only get 7 inches I am going to feel cheated.☃️
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I would think 7 inches is much easier to handle.
 
jrips27 said:
People talking about the NW trend for thing on on the 10th when the GEFS looks like this??
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I mean, Webber cannot say it enough lol. I know it's typically classic to say "the NW trend will ALWAYS happen", but it's very much possible this is a swing and a miss to the south entirely or just a weak system in the southern/eastern parts of the state.
 
Snowlover34 said:
After seeing that 12z gfs run I should of never moved all way up north of huntsville should of stayed down south in phenix city smh
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Lol I'm sitting here with a 9 inch climo and the only snow I've seen is when I went to Breckenridge 3 and a half weeks ago. Seen flakes every year here by now til this year

And tbh I wouldn't be surprised if we see no snow through mid January at least... I had a bad feeling this pattern might screw us tbh

But honestly if the Arctic air is really extreme a lot more people may get screwed I hate to say it. The GFS appears to be an outlier

Still a lot of possibilities but that is a worse case possible scenario
 
Brent said:
Lol I'm sitting here with a 9 inch climo and the only snow I've seen is when I went to Breckenridge 3 and a half weeks ago. Seen flakes every year here by now til this year

And tbh I wouldn't be surprised if we see no snow through mid January at least... I had a bad feeling this pattern might screw us tbh

But honestly if the Arctic air is really extreme a lot more people may get screwed I hate to say it. The GFS appears to be an outlier

Still a lot of possibilities but that is a worse case possible scenario
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Yeah i agree it’s just tough to see when models finally show cold we have a hard time having moisture with the cold. Than again after not seeing anything for four years snow wise I decide to move up to Hazel green up in the tennessee valley where i know this area of the state gets snow. And it just kills me where the places that rarely gets snow finally has a chance of getting something right when i move.
 
I mean my other issue is people said last year just wait.. waited nothing ever happened. This year yes it's still early but the idea of eating up most of January isn't sitting well with me. I mean yes some of our biggest snowstorms have come in February and March but last year there never was anything. Like it's becoming cruel tbh. I shouldn't have to go to Colorado to see snow up here
 
Brent said:
I mean my other issue is people said last year just wait.. waited nothing ever happened. This year yes it's still early but the idea of eating up most of January isn't sitting well with me. I mean yes some of our biggest snowstorms have come in February and March but last year there never was anything. Like it's becoming cruel tbh. I shouldn't have to go to Colorado to see snow up here
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You definitely shouldn’t have to go to colorado at all especially when you in a more favorable area to get snow especially being in oklahoma. It may be still early in the year winter wise but we know time starts ticking when we have to continue to wait 300 hours out to see fantasy snow come up or gets push back time in time again which does us no good. I think it’s best to have high hopes when i see it snowing with my own two eyes.
 
Snowlover34 said:
You definitely shouldn’t have to go to colorado at all especially when you in a more favorable area to get snow especially being in oklahoma. It may be still early in the year winter wise but we know time starts ticking when we have to continue to wait 300 hours out to see fantasy snow come up or gets push back time in time again which does us no good. I think it’s best to have high hopes when i see it snowing with my own two eyes.
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Yeah I mean the last two winters we've had a pretty well guaranteed storm fall apart in the final 12 hours so like... Even seeing it on the models days out doesn't do us any good. I try to stress to people not to get caught up in what the op runs show
 
Brent said:
Yeah I mean the last two winters we've had a pretty well guaranteed storm fall apart in the final 12 hours so like... Even seeing it on the models days out doesn't do us any good. I try to stress to people not to get caught up in what the op runs show
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Now that’s something I have had a hard time dealing with living and dieing by every model run. I even try to purposely not look at the models everyday but the snow weenie in me keeps pulling back each time.
 
Snowlover34 said:
Now that’s something I have had a hard time dealing with living and dieing by every model run. I even try to purposely not look at the models everyday but the snow weenie in me keeps pulling back each time.
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Oh I know it's hard for me too.... Just like how I'm posting about the GFS showing no snow. I mean the ensembles aren't totally blank to be fair. They aren't that great either but it's not hopeless

I've always had a fear in my head about this pattern though

It's very high risk high reward. There's gonna be people who get screwed
 
I know this isn't a popular sentiment here but I think the climate has just shifted to a point where it's becoming increasingly unlikely for areas south of I-40 and outside of the mountains to see significant winter storms. The fact that places up north that usually have their first snows in November/December and usually have some sort of snow cover by now are seeing later and later first snows and are going into the new year with bare ground, it's obvious that things are changing for the worse.

I hope this pattern produces but I'm not biting my tongue
 
When you see a storm giving feet of snow in the Deep South, the model is telling you that the cold is a real possibility.


The northwest trend talk is mute in a setup like this. Suppression could happen, and makes sense in such a pattern.

This isn't like normal where you're just cold enough in the edge to snow in the deep South. This is parts of FL below freezing with a wave coming out of the SW.

I personally like the look for a real possibility between i10 and i20, including i95 East.
 
Shawn said:
When you see a storm giving feet of snow in the Deep South, the model is telling you that the cold is a real possibility.


The northwest trend talk is mute in a setup like this. Suppression could happen, and makes sense in such a pattern.

This isn't like normal where you're just cold enough in the edge to snow in the deep South. This is parts of FL below freezing with a wave coming out of the SW.

I personally like the look for a real possibility between i10 and i20, including i95 East.
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What I'm wondering is how much influence the -AO will have to keep the suppresed track, and if the increase from severely negative to a less negative value would cause any northern shift?
 
GaStorm said:
What I'm wondering is how much influence the -AO will have to keep the suppresed track, and if the increase from severely negative to a less negative value would cause any northern shift?
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I am looking into the possibility of phasing sure... the models love to crush waves under a strong northern stream dripping down towards the gulf.

I could be completely wrong with my last statemenet with timing lining up perfectly to get a wave picked up... its just i feel more confident that even with that happening, it would remain a coastal hugger, at best, with the northward motion.

What I look for at 500 vort a stringing of the southern energy.. into a flat pancake/line. That is a carbon copy of supression, but again, the models tend to overdo a cold push.. so everything is still on the table, except an inland runner IMO.
 
jrips27 said:
Something about the simplicity of the CPC heavy snow graphic just fires me up.
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Yeah it's nice to see such a big area with more areas south as well getting in on the action.
 
Since the CPC is down with this, screw it, I'm gonna bite and track this one. Though knowing my luck it'll probably start trending to nothing
 
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