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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Webberweather53 said:
It’s going to take a lot of fortunate bounces & sheer luck on shortwave timing/placement to hit on this event & we won’t know what kind of hand we’re being dealt for several more days.

A lot of times, when a big chunk of the troposphere polar vortex drops down like this, it usually leads to either too much suppression or a big storm, with not much room for anything in between.
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I feel like the "it's all or nothing" discussion is just trying to prep us for the fact it's probably not going to snow.
 
SnowNiner said:
I feel like the "it's all or nothing" discussion is just trying to prep us for the fact it's probably not going to snow.
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There’s definitely a good chance nothing happens at all and it’s just cold/dry, but a realistic chance it’s not, that’s likely the reality we’re up against here.

With a setup this complicated and volatile, only subtle changes to wave placement, amplitude, and phasing are the difference between 2 extreme scenarios.
 
I'd feel pretty good between i10 and I20 right now. Pretty funny, really. Cae is usually just on the outside in any type of interesting weather that's not destructive.
 
SnowNiner said:
I feel like the "it's all or nothing" discussion is just trying to prep us for the fact it's probably not going to snow.
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Dumb And Dumber GIF
 
TBH, I think anybody outside of the mountains or Virginia are likely to experience any snow over a coating and maybe a little ice until at least the 14th-15th time frame (and that would be an absolute miracle). The vodka cold the models were spitting out 3-4 days ago are now just a faint memory and instead we get some Cabernet cold, little dry and mild with a touch of tart. The tease the GFS is constantly throwing out of phantom snow and cold is par for the course and we should have learned it is a crap model by now exceeded in delusion only by the CFS. Think Lucy and the football and we are Charlie Browns
 
MichaelJ said:
TBH, I think anybody outside of the mountains or Virginia are likely to experience any snow over a coating and maybe a little ice until at least the 14th-15th time frame (and that would be an absolute miracle). The vodka cold the models were spitting out 3-4 days ago are now just a faint memory and instead we get some Cabernet cold, little dry and mild with a touch of tart. The tease the GFS is constantly throwing out of phantom snow and cold is par for the course and we should have learned it is a crap model by now exceeded in delusion only by the CFS. Think Lucy and the football and we are Charlie Browns
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ecmwf-ensemble-KTDF-daily_tmin_tmax-5689600.png
 
jrips27 said:
2025 Masters in jeopardy lol. Shoutout Macon and Augusta
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This actually realistically might be "too" much of a wish hahahaha (even if you shift it a bit north).

I did mention that ice would probably be a problem, but this would easily level probably the rest of the weaker trees that are around if it actually verified.

Just give me 6" somehow and I'll be fine for this winter.
 
When you've already accepted that seeing snow again is unlikely, it makes tracking these storms less stressful lol.

I personally just want cold, if the cold snap starts disappearing or moderating too much then I'm gonna be upset.
 
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