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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Honestly I'd be down for another mood flakes event like that clipper last week lol. Or if we can't get anything at all, I hope we have at least a MECS or a HECS that comes out of that storm, even if it gives us nothing.
 
SASQUATCH said:
Can I get ONE G** D**N slightly negative trough swinging out of the SW instead of a positive Arctic Hammer falling out of the NNW? I mean, I don't ask for much...
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We used to get those all the time *Apps Rubbers
 
weatherfide said:
According to the Euro AI, spring starts right after Christmas this year.View attachment 155889
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It had the next ice age starting right after Christmas a few days ago. But that was in the face of the MJO being in P6. What it is showing now makes more sense, if the MJO slows/stalls/loops/dies in P6, like some models now suggest.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don’t see any real reason why it won’t stay strong overall at least into 7-8 or so.

This is one of the few times where I think we will see the MJO verify closer to the CFS/GEFS than the EPS.

The EPS is generally better at forecasting the MJO than the CFS just about everywhere in tropics, except when an MJO wave is being initialized over the maritime continent (phase 4-5), which is where it is now.

I see a lot of similarities to the current forecast bifurcation between the extreme EPS & CFS suites & this paper from Kim et al (2014) that I read several years ago. Even despite a decade plus of model upgrades to the EPS, many of the same biases still linger

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https://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim2014.pdf
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