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Misc Cold Season Complaining

anybody ever still tune in the the mid atlantic/NE boards on AMWX or on any other forums?

i'm interested to hear about the morale of those communities right now
 
Webberweather53 said:
This event scarred me
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It's in my top-5 all-time heartbreakers. At the same time, it's probably one of the best statewide forecast maps I've ever made. I was just talking to one of my colleagues about that forecast recently and this is what he said 🤣

The best art always comes from a place of difficulty. Your forecast map (next to this map) should be hung in the Louvre.
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1300m said:
It's in my top-5 all-time heartbreakers. At the same time, it's probably one of the best statewide forecast maps I've ever made. I was just talking to one of my colleagues about that forecast recently and this is what he said 🤣
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Yeah I agree. It was probably the snow event I learned the most from of any I’ve had to forecast in real time
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I agree. It was probably the snow event I learned the most from of any I’ve had to forecast in real time
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I still vividly remember driving home on Capital Blvd and talking to another one of the mets I worked with at the time and asking him if the 18z RGEM was still trending more neg. tilt with the shortwave and thus stronger with the warm nose. He was like yep. It was a slow, painful death but once the ball started rolling, you knew where it was going.
 
It really is wild how we have wasted February over the last 10-11 years. We have not had a widespread significant Winter storm for the Carolinas since 2014. It just doesn't even feel remotely realistic to score a storm in that month anymore. It use to produce some big ones.. Not it's just an early extension to Spring. Whether you believe in climate change or not, it's pretty obvious we are in some sort of bad cycle or something. What's wild to me & even more strange is that it's happened so fast. I mean it's not like the early 2000s were that long ago.

Even in the worst Winters down here in Columbia, we almost always managed to get a Winter weather advisory at some point during Winter. I remember being pissed off that I'd call my dad in Rock Hill & it was pouring snow & I was in a rain. Now we can't even work a threat of Winter weather into the medium range anymore let alone get a close miss.

Some would argue that it's better that way, to not even come close to a chance instead of missing at the last second.. But idk, now more than ever I kinda miss at least getting close.

We can't score a CAD anymore & the only thing Mother Nature knows how to do lately is drop the entire North Pole down the Mississippi valley & stall out an arctic boundary just West of the Apps... It's literally all she knows how to do right now.
 
Mitch West said:
It really is wild how we have wasted February over the last 10-11 years. We have not had a widespread significant Winter storm for the Carolinas since 2014. It just doesn't even feel remotely realistic to score a storm in that month anymore. It use to produce some big ones.. Not it's just an early extension to Spring. Whether you believe in climate change or not, it's pretty obvious we are in some sort of bad cycle or something. What's wild to me & even more strange is that it's happened so fast. I mean it's not like the early 2000s were that long ago.

Even in the worst Winters down here in Columbia, we almost always managed to get a Winter weather advisory at some point during Winter. I remember being pissed off that I'd call my dad in Rock Hill & it was pouring snow & I was in a rain. Now we can't even work a threat of Winter weather into the medium range anymore let alone get a close miss.

Some would argue that it's better that way, to not even come close to a chance instead of missing at the last second.. But idk, now more than ever I kinda miss at least getting close.

We can't score a CAD anymore & the only thing Mother Nature knows how to do lately is drop the entire North Pole down the Mississippi valley & stall out an arctic boundary just West of the Apps... It's literally all she knows how to do right now.
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To add, not only are we struggling, the Mid Atlantic and northeast as well. The NE will still get plenty of it, it’s just less than it once was.

North America seems to be in a funk. Thankfully it IS only late December and there’s still plenty of time, however we have sang that tune before only to get booed off stage by Old Man Winter.
 
Avalanche said:
To add, not only are we struggling, the Mid Atlantic and northeast as well. The NE will still get plenty of it, it’s just less than it once was.

North America seems to be in a funk. Thankfully it IS only late December and there’s still plenty of time, however we have sang that tune before only to get booed off stage by Old Man Winter.
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I am telling ya, it seems like it's everywhere East of the Apps.. Like just West and East of the I-95 Corridor.
 
Mitch West said:
It really is wild how we have wasted February over the last 10-11 years. We have not had a widespread significant Winter storm for the Carolinas since 2014. It just doesn't even feel remotely realistic to score a storm in that month anymore. It use to produce some big ones.. Not it's just an early extension to Spring. Whether you believe in climate change or not, it's pretty obvious we are in some sort of bad cycle or something. What's wild to me & even more strange is that it's happened so fast. I mean it's not like the early 2000s were that long ago.

Even in the worst Winters down here in Columbia, we almost always managed to get a Winter weather advisory at some point during Winter. I remember being pissed off that I'd call my dad in Rock Hill & it was pouring snow & I was in a rain. Now we can't even work a threat of Winter weather into the medium range anymore let alone get a close miss.

Some would argue that it's better that way, to not even come close to a chance instead of missing at the last second.. But idk, now more than ever I kinda miss at least getting close.

We can't score a CAD anymore & the only thing Mother Nature knows how to do lately is drop the entire North Pole down the Mississippi valley & stall out an arctic boundary just West of the Apps... It's literally all she knows how to do right now.
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Times have changed. Lets just be glad we were alive to see some pretty incredible winters. I feel bad for the younger folks who may have to go 10+ years before they see another good winter.
 
This question is for any of you guys that really know your stuff like Webb. Will all of this bad luck eventually flip back in our favor and give us a period of winter weather like in the past where we have a good run for a few years? Or are we in fact seriously looking at the new norm.
 
Top 10 Christmas Movies. What did I miss?

1. A Christmas Carol - George C. Scott
2. Christmas Vacation
3. Love Actually
4. Home Alone
5. Die Hard
6. Elf
7. The Ref
8. The Santa Clause
9. Jingle All The Way
10. Miracle on 34th Street 1994
 
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I'm one of the most Southern members on here, but I can recall in the not so distant past whenever the chance of at least having some passing form of winter precipitation was on the table each year. My last accumulating snowfall was January 17, 2018 and I've only experienced one passing flurry shower since that juncture in time. For my area, I feel as if this current pitiful winter regime started in 2018-2019 and there's seemingly no end in sight. I cannot express just how frustrating it is to see places like Natchez, MS/Southern Louisiana get pounded and absolutely nothing happen in Georgia. It is honestly getting easier for snow to fall in Pensacola, FL now than Macon, GA, the cold air will just not make it East of the Apps or the storm will diminish before reaching this area. Snow droughts have occurred around here before (the 40s/50s were just as bad as this time frame), but I almost feel as if things are magnified now due to having so much access to data, models, etc.
 
Rain Cold said:
Top 10 Christmas Movies. What did I miss?

1. A Christmas Carol - George C. Scott
2. Christmas Vacation
3. Love Actually
4. Home Alone
5. Die Hard
6. Elf
7. The Ref
8. The Santa Clause
9. Jingle All The Way
10. Miracle on 34th Street 1993
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Did you mean Miracle on 34th St 1994 ?
 
Heelyes said:
Charlie Browns Christmas?
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Pastor talked about this movie in sermon Sunday. Schultz wouldnt do it, if they wouldnt let him tell true Christmas story. Anyway,the only time you will ever see linus drop his blanket, was when hes on that pageant stage telling audience Luke Chapter 2. Reason for it, is blanket is his security always. But when you talking Luke Ch 2, Jesus was sent to this earth to be our Good Shepherd if you choose to let him be. Morale is he's (Jesus) gotcha covered, watching over you 24/7/365 days a year. Hes your security blanket.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The Grinch with Jim Carrey

Even though my kids watch it all year long and I’m to the point where I can barely stand it anymore
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Perhaps I’ve grown a little cynical, but I don’t enjoy the Christmas movies as much as I use to. However, if it came down to watching a newer one, I’d still choose the classics.
 
Stevo24 said:
This question is for any of you guys that really know your stuff like Webb. Will all of this bad luck eventually flip back in our favor and give us a period of winter weather like in the past where we have a good run for a few years? Or are we in fact seriously looking at the new norm.
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whether i "really know my stuff" is debatable but i've been thinking about this some.

it should flip back- i think the optimal windows will be shorter but we'll still have those weeks that make up for the bad years. the climate is changing but absolutely not at a fast enough clip to give raleigh the climatology of new orleans. we'll still have mediocre years where we can scratch and claw to a 1-4 inch event with a lucky corridor sniffing a half dozen.

however the way we've failed the last few years is totally concerning. every threat worth sniffing at lately trends to a benign positive tilt that spins something offshore. we're left on clipper watch. here in richmond, i think i've had a few 3+ inch eps snowfall means a week out only to lose it- not to charlottesville, but to positive tilt. when i was in wilmington and raleigh all of my heartbreaks were from north trends; we got stopped at 4th and 1. now it just feels like every play is getting blown up at the line of scrimmage. this has been consistent through a few enso phases- only thing i can think of is that warmed mid latitude SSTs have permanently altered some longwave pattern into a new base state that influences shortwaves to take an unfavorable trajectory. i hope things flip
 
Mitch West said:
It really is wild how we have wasted February over the last 10-11 years. We have not had a widespread significant Winter storm for the Carolinas since 2014. It just doesn't even feel remotely realistic to score a storm in that month anymore. It use to produce some big ones.. Not it's just an early extension to Spring. Whether you believe in climate change or not, it's pretty obvious we are in some sort of bad cycle or something. What's wild to me & even more strange is that it's happened so fast. I mean it's not like the early 2000s were that long ago.

Even in the worst Winters down here in Columbia, we almost always managed to get a Winter weather advisory at some point during Winter. I remember being pissed off that I'd call my dad in Rock Hill & it was pouring snow & I was in a rain. Now we can't even work a threat of Winter weather into the medium range anymore let alone get a close miss.

Some would argue that it's better that way, to not even come close to a chance instead of missing at the last second.. But idk, now more than ever I kinda miss at least getting close.

We can't score a CAD anymore & the only thing Mother Nature knows how to do lately is drop the entire North Pole down the Mississippi valley & stall out an arctic boundary just West of the Apps... It's literally all she knows how to do right now.
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Great post. And that Feb 14 storm, was supposed to be a huge deal in my area but ended up an ENORMOUS bust due to huge warmnose delivering a slow changeover to mostly sleet (kinda like Dec 18 as well).
 
The NAM is playing with the NE folks. Love to see it
 
Rain Cold said:
Top 10 Christmas Movies. What did I miss?

1. A Christmas Carol - George C. Scott
2. Christmas Vacation
3. Love Actually
4. Home Alone
5. Die Hard
6. Elf
7. The Ref
8. The Santa Clause
9. Jingle All The Way
10. Miracle on 34th Street 1994
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I'd put the Santa Clause "trilogy" up around 3rd, I just happen to be a fan of Tim Allen and those movies. Also, Christmas with the Kranks is an underrated one to me. I've never watched Love Actually, always figured that was a wife movie (Hallmarkish lol), might have to check it out
Has anyone seen the new Netflix movie, Carry-On? It's been labeled as a Die Hard for the modern generation, I'd say that is accurate. It's pretty good actually
 
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