Some quick long range pattern musings:
A large-scale pattern change is coming into view on the models later in week 2 into week 3. Our first wintry wx pattern window of the winter season will probably close at some point later in week 2 or so.
The Negative E Asia Mountain Torque event that's been advertised for a while now should force some retraction of the North Pacific Jet/damp the current jet extension later in week 2 & week 3.
Due to the higher-than-usual background +AAM in the mid-latitudes which should advect the Aleutian ridge downstream/eastward some into the Gulf of Alaska. I don't think we're going full boar classic La Niña/-PNA in general, but we're headed for something in between that & the pattern we've seen the first few weeks of December. Rockies & Upper Midwest/Great Plains would probably be the most favored for cold/snow as we get near and just past mid-December.
It usually takes ~2-3 weeks for a Mountain Torque event, the associated pattern change + response from global frictional torques & atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to run its course.
I could see this pattern change that's coming generally stick into at least part of the Holidays, then the pattern we've seen the first few weeks of the month may try to re-emerge near the tail end of December &/or early January.
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