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Misc Cold Season Complaining

atlwx said:
needs to be zoomed and cropped a little more.
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think everyone is triggered by that. especially in real time watching the radar and seeing you are so close, but it clearly isn't going to involve you. but when it does, man it's amazing!

despite your proclivity for cropping out time stamps and model info, I sure as heck hope you see something really good out of this!
 
TigerSnow said:
We better hope so.
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Don’t worry, the 21z SREFs will save us!

Although even the Euro is a 2” event here, so I guess I can’t be too choosy. Guidance here has anything from 0” (UKMET) to 5-7” (GFS / 3km NAM). I would guess 2-4” for Chapel Hill / Durham at this point, 3-6” for Raleigh. Thinking / hoping / praying the Euro is a little underdone.
 
superjames1992 said:
The Euro is bad at these setups, or something.
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So, I believe I’d just throw a Generic

1-3” Raleigh Metro

T-1” Charlotte Metro / Winston Metro / Upstate SC

2-3” Greensboro - Richmond

3-5” NE NC - VA Beach

4-6” Mountains (TN Border) Majority is NW Flow

Hell with it, no one will remember if you bust too low they’ll be happy. Not what I actually think will happen but yea why not.


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jcd03 said:
What are yalls predictions for Chapel Hill? Staying in CH this week and hoping I get walloped.
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(Answering this in banter.)

I am thinking 2-4" for us, though I am a weenie who tends to overpredict. Raleigh will probably do a little better with 3-6". A tough forecast, though, given the modeling envelope goes all the way from 0-7" (UKMet to NAM). I'd certainly take the 18z GFS' 5.2" depiction.

I think there is "boom" potential for more, but there's also a chance this falls apart nearly completely. So we'll see. I am still hopeful for an increase in QPF near go-time. I don't hate where we sit, though I'd certainly rather be in NE NC / SE VA.
 
superjames1992 said:
(Answering this in banter.)

I am thinking 2-4" for us, though I am a weenie who tends to overpredict. Raleigh will probably do a little better with 3-6". A tough forecast, though, given the modeling envelope goes all the way from 0-7" (UKMet to NAM). I'd certainly take the 18z GFS' 5.2" depiction.

I think there is "boom" potential for more, but there's also a chance this falls apart nearly completely. So we'll see. I am still hopeful for an increase in QPF near go-time. I don't hate where we sit, though I'd certainly rather be in NE NC / SE VA.
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Whoops sorry if I used the wrong thread, just signed up. I appreciate your response. Hoping like crazy for that boom.
 
jcd03 said:
Whoops sorry if I used the wrong thread, just signed up. I appreciate your response. Hoping like crazy for that boom.
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Welcome to the board! We just don't usually do IMBY posts in the main thread this close to a storm to keep it from getting too cluttered up with them, so that's why I answered it in here.
 
Where are My SENC Southern Brethren?

Anyone heard from @Shaggy or @lexxnchloe ??
They are "closest" to Me, abit south, in WILMYWOOD, Love to hear their status, at times.
Cheeiit, I hoping to get/meet, w/shaggy & plug for Spanish or "something" off the pier(s) this year, Hopefully & Meet Him..
 
Well guess it is a little too late in the game for any major changes to the storm. It definitely is not going to come west any further. The only hope for Western VA and Western NC is that the initial overrunning is more amped or that the the coastal lows precip shield is more robust and expansive.
 
SimeonNC said:
Every storm seems to trend to a dusting event for Charlotte this year, no matter the set up.

At least the D.C and VA folks don't get yet another storm.
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It seems impossible to have 4 different snow events in the same season, and all of them range from were between 1/4 and 1 inch of snow.
But I guess that's what Charlotte could be staring at this winter.
 
rburrel2 said:
It seems impossible to have 4 different snow events in the same season, and all of them range from were between 1/4 and 1 inch of snow.
But I guess that's what Charlotte could be staring at this winter.
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Similar for me, however it has been 2" to 3" events and mostly ICE and cold rain. The only decent one was the first one in January we got 3.8 inches of snow and that stuck around for almost two weeks. Other than that mainly been sleet /freezing rain changing to cold rain that melts it all away.
 
rburrel2 said:
It seems impossible to have 4 different snow events in the same season, and all of them range from were between 1/4 and 1 inch of snow.
But I guess that's what Charlotte could be staring at this winter.
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Unfortunately it’s been the reality for us in the south metro area since Feb 2014 actually. I think the last minute trend to rain in Feb 2015 has forever broken our snow chances here. But I’ll keep tracking and hoping lol.
 
superjames1992 said:
(Answering this in banter.)

I am thinking 2-4" for us, though I am a weenie who tends to overpredict. Raleigh will probably do a little better with 3-6". A tough forecast, though, given the modeling envelope goes all the way from 0-7" (UKMet to NAM). I'd certainly take the 18z GFS' 5.2" depiction.

I think there is "boom" potential for more, but there's also a chance this falls apart nearly completely. So we'll see. I am still hopeful for an increase in QPF near go-time. I don't hate where we sit, though I'd certainly rather be in NE NC / SE VA.
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it feels real boom or bust for the triangle. i could see northern parts of durham, wake, and/or orange scoring a half a foot out of this potentially -- but could also see some spots in the triangle struggling to pull out a full inch of snow. makes me nervous, ngl
 
saw a supposedly professional met from further north (MD i think) put out a first call map that put raleigh at a TRACE, NoVa in the jackpot zone, and DC with upwards of 3 inches, with 1" climbing all the way up to Boston. do what ya want, man, but when youve got thousands of followers tracking this through you.... idk, seems a bit ill guided
 
I got Chinese Takeout tonight ….. the fortune cookie apparently has been burned by a weather model before …

“Time will always make one wiser , listen to the older ones around you, they already know what your future will hold” soooooo NAM it is


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
I’m so confused following this storm thread …. Just got home and on phone can’t check any models myself

“Omg Bad run”

“Omg good Run”

“Omg it’s going boom”

“Omg this run sucked”

Like What the Hell is actually happening


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virtually everyone on here is pulling for a different thing. Eastern folks loving the Nams. Western piedmont folks not so much
 
Bigedd09 said:
virtually everyone on here is pulling for a different thing. Eastern folks loving the Nams. Western piedmont folks not so much
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At this point if even the NAM is going dry back here I’m out… can’t believe that POS EURO gonna score another one. Hopefully it just gets shredded by the apps and never redevelops , weak little storm anyway


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
At this point if even the NAM is going dry back here I’m out… can’t believe that POS EURO gonna score another one. Hopefully it just gets shredded by the apps and never redevelops , weak little storm anyway


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and eastern nc gets in on the better qpf on the backside. sheesh. they can't fumble this one
 
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