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Misc Cold Season Complaining

rburrel2 said:
My excitement meter for a day 9 threat is pinging at about a 9 out of 10 right now... When the 00z GEFS/EPS/CMCE means come in showing multiple inches of snow tonight i'll be at 10/10.

Also, it's always nice to have great potential out past a threat to fall back on, and we absolutely have that going for us too. Good time to be a snow weenie.
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Bruh, yeah interest is peaked….but it’s so far out…and it wouldn’t take much NW trend for this to be a big rain storm imo. SE ridge is on all models so I’m just gonna marinate, wait and watch. It’s going to take a heck of a cad to get a strong winter storm with as strong as the storm looks. I’d like to see more trough and less SE ridging the next 3 days.

Ensembles are improving but not great imo. Let’s get it under a week and see where it is.
 
And here came the 18z GFS to output reality.
 
SnowNiner said:
Bruh, yeah interest is peaked….but it’s so far out…and it wouldn’t take much NW trend for this to be a big rain storm imo. SE ridge is on all models so I’m just gonna marinate, wait and watch. It’s going to take a heck of a cad to get a strong winter storm with as strong as the storm looks. I’d like to see more trough and less SE ridging the next 3 days.

Ensembles are improving but not great imo. Let’s get it under a week and see where it is.
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When you have to say let’s get it under a week you’ve said it all lol.
 
rburrel2 said:
My excitement meter for a day 9 threat is pinging at about a 9 out of 10 right now... When the 00z GEFS/EPS/CMCE means come in showing multiple inches of snow tonight i'll be at 10/10.

Also, it's always nice to have great potential out past a threat to fall back on, and we absolutely have that going for us too. Good time to be a snow weenie.
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Are you 12?
 
SnowNiner said:
Bruh, yeah interest is peaked….but it’s so far out…and it wouldn’t take much NW trend for this to be a big rain storm imo. SE ridge is on all models so I’m just gonna marinate, wait and watch. It’s going to take a heck of a cad to get a strong winter storm with as strong as the storm looks. I’d like to see more trough and less SE ridging the next 3 days.

Ensembles are improving but not great imo. Let’s get it under a week and see where it is.
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The new GFS says the ridge wins out and it's hard to go against it. We are going to probably end up with a warm and dry Feb and March. That southeast ridge is not going anywhere.
 
LickWx said:
I was 12 when I started following weather forums 13 years ago, don’t be too hard he could be and that’s ok! Many of our members started here at that age roughly, I think Ollie was around that age and now he is in met school!
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Hey Lick. Going to be enjoying the warm weather next week thinking about you.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
c3cf8d35435e00c852134e524a9e7997.jpg

Quick…. Someone ask this guy what happens in 10 days so we can all just find out


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Me and some buddies are going to see Wembanyama play in Charlotte on Friday. I’m hammering his prop overs.
 
rburrel2 said:
My excitement meter for a day 9 threat is pinging at about a 9 out of 10 right now... When the 00z GEFS/EPS/CMCE means come in showing multiple inches of snow tonight i'll be at 10/10.

Also, it's always nice to have great potential out past a threat to fall back on, and we absolutely have that going for us too. Good time to be a snow weenie.
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If you live in Central SC I would not have my excitement at a 9/10
 
IDK why people are thinking this thing won't go to the mid ATL and NE. Even the footprint of modeling and the ZR and Sleet was showing the idea..

What happened to the NW trend people for every other event?

The 18z GFS seems more realistic to me. Guess we will have to see.
 
Shawn said:
IDK why people are thinking this thing won't go to the mid ATL and NE. Even the footprint of modeling and the ZR and Sleet was showing the idea..

What happened to the NW trend people for every other event?

The 18z GFS seems more realistic to me. Guess we will have to see.
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wasn’t it you who was hyping this time period up and even bragging about it earlier lol
 
Stevo24 said:
wasn’t it you who was hyping this time period up and even bragging about it earlier lol
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I mean, I expected a storm to show on the models for the 9-15 range. Didn't say it would happen. The footprint of the models has sucked and had a bullseye North of the SE for a while me thinks. I guess one could wish for a fringe ice or something? IDK.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Biblical run for the Mid Atlantic. They couldn’t miss if they tried View attachment 167593
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Yea id rather not get another flake than watch those crybabys get another decade level storm. They cry every year in their forums and barely even track a 3-6" event but will all show up for this. Thats called being a bandwagon fan
 
rburrel2 said:
Some interesting fresh data on verification scores published yesterday. GFS sucks guys.

climateimpactcompany.com

AI Graph Cast ECM ENS Becoming No. 1 Performing Model across North America in Medium-range - Climate Impact Company

Chart of the Day - AI Graph Cast ECM ENS Becoming No. 1 Performing Model across North America in Medium-range
climateimpactcompany.com climateimpactcompany.com
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What is Hilarious (yes we do the same) but Big Bastard(i) is only posting GFS runs over n over on twitter and talking about MA/NE. None of them will even acknowledge the EURO A.I, And as it shows here.....they should. I will never doubt EURO A.I 5-8 Days out , NAM 48hRS Anymore.... Hopefully some semblance of the old EE Rule comes back in years to come
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
What is Hilarious (yes we do the same) but Big Bastard(i) is only posting GFS runs over n over on twitter and talking about MA/NE. None of them will even acknowledge the EURO A.I, And as it shows here.....they should. I will never doubt EURO A.I 5-8 Days out , NAM 48hRS Anymore.... Hopefully some semblance of the old EE Rule comes back in years to come
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Yea, this is sorta like last week when the GFS was showing ice storms here with epic wedging in the day 8-10 timeframe... and the Euro AI had the freezing line up in Maine with hardly any semblance of a wedge... Euro AI never flinched and was completely accurate in the end.

Which, I don't think many here ever even got their hopes up for that one; we know better.

Mid-atlantic crew is still in a good spot though for next week, they just aren't gonna be getting the 40 inches from 3 seperate banger storms like the GFS is showing.
 
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