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Misc Cold Season Complaining

IDK about this with the soundings man, but considering that I remember Jan 2014, it's going to be super cold tonight, AND I already had an accident in the car last week I am driving for now, I may need to pay attention to ground truth and plan to tap out of work tomorrow if snow is reaching the ground.

Told my parents I'd try to use my judgment here.
 
With the way the ensembles have bounced around with this storm (and others), I sometimes fail to see the value in ensemble forecasting, at least within D7 or so. It seems the ensembles just follow the operational around with their massive shifts.

For example, the Euro op had that big weenie run a few days ago and the EPS supported it, yet it meant nothing. The Canadian ensembles strongly supported the operational Canadian and it meant diddly squat; they all folded like a house of cards!!!
 
superjames1992 said:
With the way the ensembles have bounced around with this storm (and others), I sometimes fail to see the value in ensemble forecasting, at least within D7 or so. It seems the ensembles just follow the operational around with their massive shifts.

For example, the Euro op had that big weenie run a few days ago and the EPS supported it, yet it meant nothing. The Canadian ensembles strongly supported the operational Canadian and it meant diddly squat; they all folded like a house of cards!!!
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While ik its our hobby and we will.... I think old times it was "inside 5 days" i think that line needs to be pushed to "its not a threat until NAM is active. No not saying bc of NAM but bc that timeframe of 3 days
 
How far are we off from having reliable model runs within 3 days, I get the weather is fluid, dynamic and human input but with so many technological changes, at times, it seems the model have regressed with time and technology!
 
superjames1992 said:
With the way the ensembles have bounced around with this storm (and others), I sometimes fail to see the value in ensemble forecasting, at least within D7 or so. It seems the ensembles just follow the operational around with their massive shifts.

For example, the Euro op had that big weenie run a few days ago and the EPS supported it, yet it meant nothing. The Canadian ensembles strongly supported the operational Canadian and it meant diddly squat; they all folded like a house of cards!!!
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I think we’re just using them wrong. If you go back and look at the best eps runs, they still had 40% of members showing something similar to what’s happening or worse. That should have told us there’s a near coin flip chance this goes bad, and it did. And that’s even showing in the “best” runs we saw.

We just don’t want to focus on bad, and we got a bit unlucky this time.

So even though the eps mean followed the op, the data was there within in it to say “Guh, this is far from a lock”
 
jeremyt said:
How far are we off from having reliable model runs within 3 days, I get the weather is fluid, dynamic and human input but with so many technological changes, at times, it seems the model have regressed with time and technology!
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Chaos is hard. Bugs are inevitable. Confirmation bias is unavoidable.
 
IMO waffling around 50-100 miles either way around the current track isn’t a NW trend. A full NW trend to me, would bring the storm back in line with where it was modeled for several days early/mid week… before it decided to take a beach trip.
 
RobertRath said:
IMO waffling around 50-100 miles either way around the current track isn’t a NW trend. A full NW trend to me, would bring the storm back in line with where it was modeled for several days early/mid week… before it decided to take a beach trip.
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Premature to call it a NW trend, for sure. But this weenie sure as hell has a disconnect from logic when snow is involved.
 
RobertRath said:
IMO waffling around 50-100 miles either way around the current track isn’t a NW trend. A full NW trend to me, would bring the storm back in line with where it was modeled for several days early/mid week… before it decided to take a beach trip.
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I get that, but I think another run or two with jumps like that It will be back in line. Not the crazy Amount of QPF of course but pretty solid

.4 - .5" QPF immediate Coastlines

.25 - .4" QPF I-95 - I-85

.1 - .2" QPF I-85 Corridor

.01 - .1" QPF back to around N AL / N GA / W NC
 
rburrel2 said:
I think we’re just using them wrong. If you go back and look at the best eps runs, they still had 40% of members showing something similar to what’s happening or worse. That should have told us there’s a near coin flip chance this goes bad, and it did. And that’s even showing in the “best” runs we saw.

We just don’t want to focus on bad, and we got a bit unlucky this time.

So even though the eps mean followed the op, the data was there within in it to say “Guh, this is far from a lock”
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Yup. We’ve latched onto those “outliers” many times before when they showed a storm/what we want. On rare occasion, they’ve come to pass. And you forget they were “outliers”.
 
LickWx said:
For now, but as I have posted the Triangle areas, and all the metros around here have pretty much caught up and are now more expensive than every metro outside of the traditional old metros of the NE, West coast. COL is rising the fastest in the sun belt metros as well.
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Yup we committed to a property in 2020 before the bubble and closed during the bubble in 2021, and we had $200k in equity upon closing. Just absurd here in Western Wake.
 
@Mitch West and I have been doing snow dances and it seems to be working.

It will and it must snow even if kcae says not.
 
Lexington SC schools just announced early release for tomorrow. They apparently don’t want to risk any precipitation starting earlier than forecasted like it did 2 weeks ago and school busses were on the road during the heaviest part of our sleet precipitation.
 
DopplerWx said:
You’re getting at least an inch I can feel it
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I was a thinking around 0.15 qpf as the floor and 0.30 as the ceiling. I'm still all in. Just hated to see the euro start to back off last night.

I am going outside and running many many diesel generators I copped to increase the warm air advection
 
SegTindoPro said:
I just wanna say to the people in Birmingham & Atlanta And NC no offense but you already had snow why are you hoping for a NW and screwing others out of snow just so you can get some again it makes no sense


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I'll take the bait. RDU has historically averaged 6" of snow per season. They haven't had 6" of snow COMBINED in the last six years. If you want more snow, move to a climate that gets it. Trust me, I'm working on taking my own advise.

I got 0.5" of snow last week, that doesn't cut it. That's pathetic. I could not care less if the Gulf Coast or areas that average almost no snow get hosed. Not like my wishing effects things anyway because if they did everyone would be miserable at my expense from a weather perspective.
 
SegTindoPro said:
I just wanna say to the people in Birmingham & Atlanta And NC no offense but you already had snow why are you hoping for a NW and screwing others out of snow just so you can get some again it makes no sense


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We're snow weenies. We want as much snow as we can get. I'd love for places like New Orleans to get a big snow, why not! But I also want mine. Getting one storm just makes me want another, bigger storm.
 
SegTindoPro said:
I just wanna say to the people in Birmingham & Atlanta And NC no offense but you already had snow why are you hoping for a NW and screwing others out of snow just so you can get some again it makes no sense


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And as you can see, our hoping has got us nothing. Nada. We can't control the weather, but we can wish cast with the best of them. When we hope for a NW trend, we are doing so for our own selfish needs. Don't take it personal. Wish extra hard for a SE trend 😅
 
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