Round Oak Weather
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I just need a few more ticks north and I can get a nice event out of this. Nothing like what we were all hoping for but I’ll take it
Cae will make out with at least .25 qpf, maybe .30I think we are starting to trend a little bit better with this system. I just don't think there's enough time to give I-20 in SC a big snowstorm. Feel like if it's going to continue to trend NW at all, it will trend just enough to get us 1-2 inches of snow, while having to watch Charleston and Myrtle Beach get anywhere between 3-6 inches of snow, which would feel gross.
I was saying "event" for those in Carolinas. Just to clarify. Most people in these areas will possibly struggle to see much. For the Gulf of "Mexico?" crew, I wish nothing but large amounts of snow.Let’s not minimize this event by putting it on quotations. This is historic storm for some, even if it’s sad for us. We have posters in the areas that could get a historic snowfall.
This keeps up it’ll be a 2022 situation where the nam comes in and blossoms precip out of nowhere far Inland (I pray)I can't wait to see a little strip of 3-4 inches show up by 00z imby
0.27 qpf for youHRRR is coming in a bit to the south so far.
Man, I just don't know. Think this is going to be a whiff exactly like CAE suggests and similar to 2018.
I think maybe a few passing flurries would be my bet on late afternoon tomorrow and overnight.
but how does that happen when the hp is so strong? /sNAM is finally understanding how to lift air parcels.
No doubt it’s horrible. However it was the only model a few days back showing my area getting accumulating snow while others showed nothing. As it got closer the euro and gfs started showing a minor event also. Canadian was trying to drop 2-3 inches so it definitely wasn’t correct, but it was the first to show anything more then flurries.The canadian literally wiffed on most of us last run. It did horrible for the upcoming event.
To be fair, for mby, the canadian's ensemble probabilities are not 0 for > 6 inches still haha.No doubt it’s horrible. However it was the only model a few days back showing my area getting accumulating snow while others showed nothing. As it got closer the euro and gfs started showing a minor event also. Canadian was trying to drop 2-3 inches so it definitely wasn’t correct, but it was the first to show anything more then flurries.
Crazy trends but I guess your never outCAE and AGS are going to do well. 2-3 inches probably.
The virga monster is going to hurt, but eventually it'll saturate.
WAA/upglidebut how does that happen when the hp is so strong? /s
but but. the HP is too strong for it.WAA/upglide
Dr Lackmann told us he was forecasting 2-3” for Jan 2000 and folks then thought “wow, that seems a bit high?”This feels like January 2000.
I mean, not really, but
Haha. Is he still teaching intro to meteorology (or whatever the course was called)? He was fun.Dr Lackmann told us he was forecasting 2-3” for Jan 2000 and folks then thought “wow, that seems a bit high?”
A man can dream
I would not be shocked. I'm just down the road in Calhoun County (Saint Matthews) and looking under the hood, the column actually moistens up fairly quickly and would be surprised to see a burst of at least moderate rates for a few hours with the recent increase in qpf...CAE and AGS are going to do well. 2-3 inches probably.
The virga monster is going to hurt, but eventually it'll saturate.
Somehow, Mt Airy is going to get 2” of snow from this while we get blanked!That big frosty magic is about to happen for gsp/Charlotte/ Raleigh
Still looks a long ways from the upstate/Central Carolina
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I do think the ceiling for us is 0.3 qpf sadly.The Columbia/Augusta Bullseye may be thing after all. Just gotta bump up the precip a bit compared to the NAM has.
He’s dept head now. Taught his last synoptic course last semester great profHaha. Is he still teaching intro to meteorology (or whatever the course was called)? He was fun.
Yeah seriously. It's a derivative of the "the storm can't possibly put into that strong of a high pressure".but but. the HP is too strong for it.
I love how we get closer and closer, temps continue to climb up.
it's funny, really, how these super HP are taken so serious 4+ days out.
I wouldn't be sad about that. Could be 4-4.5 inches of powder.I do think the ceiling for us is 0.3 qpf sadly.
So will there be anything else to track before winter is over???