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Misc Cold Season Complaining

KyloG said:
The Sat 0z Euro run was a brutal tease...I thought we were back...day 4 out, Euro catching on. That is just brutal..way worse than the CMC

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And the EPS. That's what got me. It full on went with the op, look at all those home runs. I don't care what anyone says, I NEVER want to hear about how great ensembles are or that ensemble forecasting is the new way to forecast. Ensembles are dead to me after this storm. Use them for pattern recognition sure, but storm details they are just as useless as the ops.
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1300m said:
And the EPS. That's what got me. It full on went with the op, look at all those home runs. I don't care what anyone says, I NEVER want to hear about how great ensembles are or that ensemble forecasting is the new way to forecast. Ensembles are dead to me after this storm. Use them for pattern recognition sure, but storm details they are just as useless as the ops.
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Something happened/got ingested around the 4 day mark that was beyond the scope and range of the perturbations for any ensemble unfortunately. Weird given that this was a little less complicated than the last storm
 
rburrel2 said:
Pretty solid backside band showing up on the 3km NAM now. Verbatim it says nothing reaches the ground, but the Euro/Euro AI disagrees. A couple more trends and maybe this feature can lay down an inch or two for everyone in the Upstate and Central/Eastern NC.

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Still looks a long ways from the upstate/Central Carolina


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rburrel2 said:
Pretty solid backside band showing up on the 3km NAM now. Verbatim it says nothing reaches the ground, but the Euro/Euro AI disagrees. A couple more trends and maybe this feature can lay down an inch or two for everyone in the Upstate and Central/Eastern NC.

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Can’t believe I’m still here but I’ve seen some crazier crap happen.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Still looks a long ways from the upstate/Central Carolina


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It's not as far as you think. We just need the Euro/GFS to be right with flakes reaching the ground to get our dusting. We don't need the back edge of the precip to trend 100's of miles West... we just need the back edge of the precip to trend strong enough to reach the ground. (It's already progged to go over our backyards)... by our, I mean Upstate/Central Carolina's.
 
Oconeexman said:
I ranted about that yesterday on FB..had a woman reply shed lived here 39 years and never seen single digits...lol
77 we had single digits and 85 we had multiple nights at 3-5 degrees at my house. Was -7 in mountain rest in 85 and Ceasars Head got down to like -19.
And i know weve had other nights since then that had gotten to 9 or 10 for a low. Its so ridiculous the way they media hype crap now!
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superjames1992 said:
Did January 2018 not make single digits there?
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I think people just have short memories. According to NWS, GSP last saw below 10 with a 7 recorded on Christmas eve 2022, and the high that day was 28. That is well below anything forecast for this week and that was at the airport; meaning many outlying areas were likely colder. I think I was 5 or 6 that morning. Heck, just last Jan, GSP made it own to 11 with a high of 32 on the 20th. Many surrounding areas would have been upper single digits. Upper single digits for the upstate are not unusual at all and occur more years than not for areas outside the heat islands. GSP also recorded multiple mornings below 10 in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 with the fronts we had those years, as well as highs below freezing. I remember it getting at least down to 5 at the airport but, again, many outlying areas were lower single digits. I think in 2018 the offical low at the airport was 10 but most areas made single digits on multiple nights. Below zero is obviously a lot more rare around here; though Cearser's Head get there occasionally; know they got to -5 in 2014 and may have in 2018.

I will say that, to be fair, I guess the wide area of cold for much of the country combined with the unusual snow along the gulf makes this one stand out more, but at least more locally, there is nothing historic or particularly unusual about this front. I think the media loves to hype these more now because they get clicks and views that way.
 
KyloG said:
This winter will mark RDUs worst 3 year stretch for snow going back 130+ years...and yeah the earth is getting warmer but it's about to snow 6-8" along the gulf coast. So a lot of this is just bad luck.

Below is the other worst 3 year stretches.

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The year after these looked pretty good
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I think people just have short memories. According to NWS, GSP last saw below 10 with a 7 recorded on Christmas eve 2022, and the high that day was 28. That is well below anything forecast for this week and that was at the airport; meaning many outlying areas were likely colder. I think I was 5 or 6 that morning. Heck, just last Jan, GSP made it own to 11 with a high of 32 on the 20th. Many surrounding areas would have been upper single digits. Upper single digits for the upstate are not unusual at all and occur more years than not for areas outside the heat islands. GSP also recorded multiple mornings below 10 in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 with the fronts we had those years, as well as highs below freezing. I remember it getting at least down to 5 at the airport but, again, many outlying areas were lower single digits. I think in 2018 the offical low at the airport was 10 but most areas made single digits on multiple nights. Below zero is obviously a lot more rare around here; though Cearser's Head get there occasionally; know they got to -5 in 2014 and may have in 2018.

I will say that, to be fair, I guess the wide area of cold for much of the country combined with the unusual snow along the gulf makes this one stand out more, but at least more locally, there is nothing historic or particularly unusual about this front. I think the media loves to hype these more now because they get clicks and views that way.
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I hit 0 in Rural Western Rowan County in 2014 Jan.
Hit 4 in Mooresville two years ago on Christmas eve. Lows UNDER 10 and Highs UNDER 30 are a cold wave imo. The rest just a cold day
 
rburrel2 said:
It's not as far as you think. We just need the Euro/GFS to be right with flakes reaching the ground to get our dusting. We don't need the back edge of the precip to trend 100's of miles West... we just need the back edge of the precip to trend strong enough to reach the ground. (It's already progged to go over our backyards)... by our, I mean Upstate/Central Carolina's.
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I hope you can get a little something out of it because it may be a good while before we have another chance! Good luck!!
 
Bham 99 said:
Please tell us what the property tax would be? I'm sure any savings in the home would be made up by the taxes.
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Would it? Furthermore, property taxes in the south are not far from getting to similar rates. All the sprawl is expensive. Municipal services are expensive. Eventually the bills will come due and property taxes will be raised to similar rates…

You get decent public services up there that you just don’t get here… and schools perform better generally .
 
A non zero chance for just south of me.
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LickWx said:
Would it? Furthermore, property taxes in the south are not far from getting to similar rates. All the sprawl is expensive. Municipal services are expensive. Eventually the bills will come due and property taxes will be raised to similar rates…

You get decent public services up there that you just don’t get here… and schools perform better generally .
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The Sun Belt would not be growing as much as it is if it was such a good deal up north.
 
Bham 99 said:
The Sun Belt would not be growing as much as it is if it was such a good deal up north.
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For now, but as I have posted the Triangle areas, and all the metros around here have pretty much caught up and are now more expensive than every metro outside of the traditional old metros of the NE, West coast. COL is rising the fastest in the sun belt metros as well.
 
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