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Misc Cold Season Complaining

superjames1992 said:
Catching up now, it looks like it’s trended towards there being a storm but it’s quite suppressed and I may end up being too far north / west? I’ll take that over battling (and losing to) sleet and freezing rain like last week. It would be nice to not have to sweat P-types for once and just hope the precip shield is more expansive than modeled.
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I think I’d rather sweat p types than just hope the models are wrong about shield
 
I feel like the whole "believe the model that shows the least snow" bias is clouding judgement.

People have continuously crapped on the GFS for being bad yet are willing to take it's solution tonight over the CMC/UKmet, both models that have higher verification scores. I said in my post in my main thread but I don't think the Canadian solution should be completely thrown out considering it's been consistent on showing a major storm in some way or form, ignoring the ludicrous amounts of course, it shouldn't be tossed.

If the Euro goes towards the GFS then I'd give it more credence.
 
Looks like it’s about time to wave the white flag for the northern tier? Am I wrong but it’s basically the CMC on an island by itself for us? Frustrating that it’s been since 2015 that we’ve had a decent snow here. Misses to the north and south, now it seems another miss south. That’s tough.
 
RobertRath said:
Looks like it’s about time to wave the white flag for the northern tier? Am I wrong but it’s basically the CMC on an island by itself for us? Frustrating that it’s been since 2015 that we’ve had a decent snow here. Misses to the north and south, now it seems another miss south. That’s tough.
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Did you not get a few inches of snow recently ?
 
jackendrickwx said:
The Canadian being right is maybe the last thing I’d worry about honestly
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Looks like the UKMET has a strong storm that we are on the northern edge of as well (for once, the Wake County snow gradient works in the other direction, LOL). Of course the Canadian is clearly a little off its rockers, hah!
 
well, i mean. the gfs gefs euro and eps are unbeatable no matter what anyone says.

thats why the wpc even moved the higher chances down to the coast and removed them from inland.
thats also why they mention how the canadian is "on the other end of the spectrum" vs what they prefer with more suppression.

kgsp are smart. kcae are smart. they don't emotionally invest in bad model runs that give false hope to amateurs.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nights 5-3 are usually pretty bad. Nights 2-0 are bangers
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ya i said it at some point today i think that this one will prolly be annoying in that i doubt we can stick a fork in it anytime soon so we end up tracking thru Sunday or Monday at least regardless.
 
at least we have a consensus of most reliable modeling now going away from a big storm across the whole se. it'd suck worse if it rug pulled just a day or so out instead.

the euro was the first to show a big storm many days ago. it got rid of it immediately and never brought it back as intense.
 
people are also failing to realize that half the ensemble members have been empty on both major suites and skewed by big ones. nws also noted that.

there was always the possibility they'd be right and with how rare big time storms are in the se, it makes sense they would be this time.
 
Its Over Basketball GIF by NBA
 
WidreMann 2.0 said:
okay well everyone can cling to that Canadian model. the only major one that still shows a boardwide storm and we'll see how that goes.
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That’s not what I mean. I’ve said the Canadian is almost certainly wrong. I’m saying there’s time for positive changes or negative changes. Or, the euro and gfs at day 5 will be exactly right. Entirely possible
 
WidreMann 2.0 said:
people are also failing to realize that half the ensemble members have been empty on both major suites and skewed by big ones. nws also noted that.

there was always the possibility they'd be right and with how rare big time storms are in the se, it makes sense they would be this time.
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You're saying we've still got a 50/50 chance.
I love it.
 
jackendrickwx said:
That’s not what I mean. I’ve said the Canadian is almost certainly wrong. I’m saying there’s time for positive changes or negative changes. Or, the euro and gfs at day 5 will be exactly right. Entirely possible
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The UKMET is a pretty big hit for a lot of board members, too.
 
so what do we have.

the icon gone.
gfs gone.
gefs gone.
euro gone.

candian on.
euro aifs on.
graphcast on.
ukmet on.

eps? waiting
 
WidreMann 2.0 said:
people are also failing to realize that half the ensemble members have been empty on both major suites and skewed by big ones. nws also noted that.

there was always the possibility they'd be right and with how rare big time storms are in the se, it makes sense they would be this time.
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Brad P has entered the chat
 
WidreMann 2.0 said:
so what do we have.

the icon gone.
gfs gone.
gefs gone.
euro gone.

candian on.
euro aifs on.
graphcast on.
ukmet on.

eps? waiting
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Looking at this list and idk what to think😂😂😂oh no we don’t have the euro but hey we have the afis, graphcast, uk, uk and cmc ensembles😃
 
yep. brad wins again too haha. all the naysayers of him and kgsp.. kinda funny really
 
No offense but the biggest annoyance to me is how absolutely stupid and unnatural these maps look. Like I’m sorry it simply shouldn’t snow in Tallahassee and Savannah GA…. That is simply stupid and can’t be explained


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
No offense but the biggest annoyance to me is how absolutely stupid and unnatural these maps look. Like I’m sorry it simply shouldn’t snow in Tallahassee and Savannah GA…. That is simply stupid and can’t be explained


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While rare events do happen, there is an argument that we should take climo into account which would suggest some of the Deep South solutions are less likely and could argue for a N/W correction given what historically has happened most of the time. But there are exceptions and this time could be different. The FL panhandle got snow in January 2018, after all. It can happen, though 6” in Tallahassee as the Euro showed seems quite far-fetched given climo.

I also may be wishcasting.
 
Dunno about y’all, but losing because it’s TOO cold is just plain rude.

But, guess it beats a crippling “lights out” ice storm. I’ll find the gratitude and move on.

Still some time on the clock, but it ain’t looking good.
 
superjames1992 said:
While rare events do happen, there is an argument that we should take climo into account which would suggest some of the Deep South solutions are less likely and could argue for a N/W correction given what historically has happened most of the time. But there are exceptions and this time could be different. The FL panhandle got snow in January 2018, after all. It can happen, though 6” in Tallahassee as the Euro showed seems quite far-fetched given climo.

I also may be wishcasting.
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Wishcasting.

Also you aren’t alone in doing it. I’m still holding out for old reliable to show up. But this would be the one time it is a no show. Because of course.
 
I don't understand how many of you say you can't just talk in absolutes,
Then talk in absolutes about the NW trend as 💯 as death & taxes.
I always knew suppression was a real possibility!
I wasn't alone based upon some of the other posters I've seen make comments or just emojis!
If your NW of 85, 40 or West of 77 and your in your 40's or older we have seen these scenarios happen!
It's not just an outlier of 89 & 73.
It happened in the last 3-5 years.
I can't remember the year exactly but there was a storm after we had a decent snow north of 85,
Was followed by a smaller storm that hit areas South of 85.
I got snow for about 15 mins out of that.
Carolina crusher,
Snowed at my house for 30 mins maybe!
It's not common but it's also not a once in a century type thing.
I hope the ppl South & East of me get a blizzard.
You guys deserve it!

I hate to waste this pattern up my way but I guess I broke the snowless drought with my 1.3 inches last week!
It hurts to miss them.
It kills me to miss them to my South!

Btw I'd love to be proven wrong here,
I haven't given up hope completely but if I lived east of 77 I'd be stoked !
 
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