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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Only 5 pages over night in the storm thread , and GSP has no mention of precip in my forecast. Yep we’re cooked. Sigh. I give up.
 
Worth posting again lol

It’s almost a shame the long range GEM sucked last storm. I say almost as what it has shown all week is probably too much to handle imo. I’m gonna be a bit of a grouch and say the lighter looking events that seem possible is probably better (but I DO NOT want another Jan 2018, no thanks).

Anyway, back to trying to sleep for a little longer.
 
Billypg70 said:
I don't understand how many of you say you can't just talk in absolutes,
Then talk in absolutes about the NW trend as 💯 as death & taxes.
I always knew suppression was a real possibility!
I wasn't alone based upon some of the other posters I've seen make comments or just emojis!
If your NW of 85, 40 or West of 77 and your in your 40's or older we have seen these scenarios happen!
It's not just an outlier of 89 & 73.
It happened in the last 3-5 years.
I can't remember the year exactly but there was a storm after we had a decent snow north of 85,
Was followed by a smaller storm that hit areas South of 85.
I got snow for about 15 mins out of that.
Carolina crusher,
Snowed at my house for 30 mins maybe!
It's not common but it's also not a once in a century type thing.
I hope the ppl South & East of me get a blizzard.
You guys deserve it!

I hate to waste this pattern up my way but I guess I broke the snowless drought with my 1.3 inches last week!
It hurts to miss them.
It kills me to miss them to my South!

Btw I'd love to be proven wrong here,
I haven't given up hope completely but if I lived east of 77 I'd be stoked !
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I agree 💯. I’ve been around too long, seen too many storms pass to my south, looked out the window as a kid waiting on it to snow only for it to be too cold and dry. I hope all the people calling for suppression are happy because that looks like exactly what we’re going to get. The NW trend is never a guarantee. As a matter of fact it seems like once these models lock into a crazy, extremely southern solution they stay locked into it. Again I hope I’m wrong, I’m pulling for the NW trend but it doesn’t seem like that’s in the cards. I used to not care because I loved the extremes of the cold air, but the older I get the more I say if we can’t have winter weather then forget the cold. I’d rather risk a storm being too far N and end up getting a mixed bag.
 
The key to this whole kit and kabootle is to keep Shawn griping. I’ll make a long post here shortly about how this has absolutely no shot at happening and that our goose is cooked. SD can post a video of him doing the hokey pokey. Any other ideas? Brent can dress up as Kevin Martin?
 
No changes from me. I still wanna emphasize the threat of damaging ice is very real. QPF expansion further north west possible but not the main headline.
 
1/28/14 has been in my head for a while on this one. Everyone kept saying a NW trend wasn’t going to happen and the coast would be getting a historic storm. Well the 18z GFS on 1/26 jumped north and the rest was history. Think we started calling it Happy Hour after that. Areas that were suppose to get snow to the south all verified warm and got mostly rain.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
1/28/14 has been in my head for a while on this one. Everyone kept saying a NW trend wasn’t going to happen and the coast would be getting a historic storm. Well the 18z GFS on 1/26 jumped north and the rest was history. Think we started calling it Happy Hour after that. Areas that were suppose to get snow to the south all verified warm and got mostly rain.
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i've heard this storm thrown out some and while the modeled impacts are similar i don't remember this being that similar at all synoptically
 
Yeah, the deal with Jan 2014 was more that the upper end of the precip field busted. If it's going to be similar, who knows, a lot of Georgia is still in the game and North Florida will have a shot to see some snow at the same time, but nothing as crazy as depicted.

Anyway, I could use some positive vibes today here. I had a fender bender accident that really wasn't my fault and hit my mood.
 
First Guess since I’ve had early this week. Fire symbols playing with fire (critical icing levels over 0.5” ZR with some sleet and snow accumulations 2-6”+ in some areas. Hearts (chase-able locations 6-12”+ snow and sleet). Yellow line sharp gradient of dry snow but believe Charlotte and Raleigh can see 2” or more. Crying face near Mount Airy NC will be dry flurries and run the risk of frost bite and chapped lips. Obviously it’s too early to make this call and it will likely change some by Monday. IMG_4195.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
First Guess since I’ve had early this week. Fire symbols playing with fire (critical icing levels over 0.5” ZR with some sleet and snow accumulations 2-6”+ in some areas. Hearts (chase-able locations 6-12”+ snow and sleet). Yellow line sharp gradient of dry snow but believe Charlotte and Raleigh can see 2” or more. Crying face near Mount Airy NC will be dry flurries and run the risk of frost bite and chapped lips. Obviously it’s too early to make this call and it will likely change some by Monday. View attachment 164518
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The hearts are awfully close to the fire.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
First Guess since I’ve had early this week. Fire symbols playing with fire (critical icing levels over 0.5” ZR with some sleet and snow accumulations 2-6”+ in some areas. Hearts (chase-able locations 6-12”+ snow and sleet). Yellow line sharp gradient of dry snow but believe Charlotte and Raleigh can see 2” or more. Crying face near Mount Airy NC will be dry flurries and run the risk of frost bite and chapped lips. Obviously it’s too early to make this call and it will likely change some by Monday. View attachment 164518
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This is the type of analysis I became a member for. Thank you 🙏
 
Snowflowxxl said:
This is the type of analysis I became a member for. Thank you 🙏
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WPC has actually been spot on in my opinion. A lot of wish casting here but those guys have been consistent for days. It’s a low country storm and down east storm while Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh fight for table scraps. I would think Raleigh is more favored to be a wild card than the other two if wanting more than 2” snow.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
My fav saying…. “Would be Catastrophic For XYZ with this amount FRZN” knowing full well, FRZN output is 500% overdone most times more so than SN. Or “Lights Out If X model is right”


Idc what any of yall say…. My Dream is 8-12” of SN / 1-2” of Sleet / 1/2” FRZN …. If you’re gonna do something do it right man


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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My new favorite - there will be no NW trend this time because XYZ 😀
 
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