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Misc Cold Season Complaining

JHS said:
Only reality. We really only have the Icon and Canadian showing great solutions right now. The Euro AI is too but I do not trust it. I can see this being another rainstorm for most of US. Kentucky and Virginia win again.
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The reality is that the 00z GFS improved at the h5 levels, and the AIFS has been the most consistent model this storm with the other models trending to a solution similar to it lol.
 
Roswellian said:
Just need someone to explain to me why people treat the GFS like gospel truth when it shows a less than ideal solution but also trash the model as goofy and unreliable at other times. Very confusing
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Because it has an ensemble suite that is actually okay.
 
Roswellian said:
Just need someone to explain to me why people treat the GFS like gospel truth when it shows a less than ideal solution but also trash the model as goofy and unreliable at other times. Very confusing
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It’s a defense mechanism. You have to take the worst model and assume that’s what is going to happen. It’s from years and years and years of abuse
 
Oh, yeah, CAE will not stay snow unless the track stays at North Central Florida. That solution screws a lot of people for the most part.

In other words, we get a sloppy mess. Personally, I am holding out hope for all rain here if it's not going to be snow.
 
Shawn said:
It's actually the sign of a much larger mental health problem. Sometimes, we refer to people as being grouchy or "bah humbug", but it's really a deep rooted self loathing and selfish way of expression something along the lines of :

"I am not happy in my life, snow would make me feel a little bit happier, but I see other people getting more, so I am going to feel less important and happy than them, so I hope they don't get anything."

When people act this way, it's really just the effect of depression and failure to feel any sense of importance in life, so they need to try and bring others down to their own level so they feel something other than despair and anger.

In other words, it's a mental illness. It's best to give no response or credit to feed it.
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If people would put down their phones and think about how they can serve someone else a couple of times a day, they'd begin to feel a lot better. It's N easy formula that few people follow these days.

We've become a pretty selfish and narcissistic culture on the whole. That leads to cynicism, malaise, and a general down in the dumps feeling. Getting off our butts and away from the screen and finding somebody to help would have tremendously beneficial effects.
 
Rain Cold said:
If people would put down their phones and think about how they can serve someone else a couple of times a day, they'd begin to feel a lot better. It's N easy formula that few people follow these days.

We've become a pretty selfish and narcissistic culture on the whole. That leads to cynicism, malaise, and a general down in the dumps feeling. Getting off our butts and away from the screen and finding somebody to help would have tremendously beneficial effects.
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Yeah, well when people are too far gone, they stay recluse and never interact with people IRL to do so. The last thought in their mind, if they can even get out of bed is to "go be chipper and help a stranger".

It can get pretty darn bad.
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, well when people are too far gone, they stay recluse and never interact with people IRL to do so. The last thought in their mind, if they can even get out of bed is to "go be chipper and help a stranger".

It can get pretty darn bad.
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I understand that. But at the end of the day, everyone has free will to make a choice. It doesn't mean every choice is always easy. Turning the gaze outward is not the easiest thing to do. But it becomes a rewarding, self-reinforcing positive force if one can muster the will to do it. And one can if one so chooses.

And believe me, I'm not trying to minimize the struggle. Sometimes people need help. In fact, we all need help at times. But ultimately, it's up to us. We're made to be resilient. Society and culture sometimes has a way of warping our perspective.
 
Rain Cold said:
I understand that. But at the end of the day, everyone has free will to make a choice. It doesn't mean every choice is always easy. Turning the gaze outward is not the easiest thing to do. But it becomes a rewarding, self-reinforcing positive force if one can muster the will to do it. And one can if one so chooses.

And believe me, I'm not trying to minimize the struggle. Sometimes people need help. In fact, we all need help at times. But ultimately, it's up to us. We're made to be resilient. Society and culture sometimes has a way of warping our perspective.
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We are the most resilient humans on planet Earth. Look @ the adult daycare we manage to run here!
 
Also, how trustworthy are these AI models? I’ve been a little out of the loop and these seem new, so I’m curious how reliable people have found them versus the normal NWP models? I’m guessing the AI models are the future, but are they ready for prime time now?
 
superjames1992 said:
Also, how trustworthy are these AI models? I’ve been a little out of the loop and these seem new, so I’m curious how reliable people have found them versus the normal NWP models? I’m guessing the AI models are the future, but are they ready for prime time now?
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verification scores are apparently rock solid
 
lol, we haven’t even gotten to the full-on short range model sweat-out-each-run stage. Things will change for better or worse in all likelihood, even until that range. Buckle UP
 
My friend in Dallas has never believed January snow btw... He always says it's February

If you look at the climo there's been very few snowy January's

Way more February and even December
 
Brent said:
My friend in Dallas has never believed January snow btw... He always says it's February

If you look at the climo there's been very few snowy January's

Way more February and even December
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That's how it is here, Feb around CAE.. And it's part of why I can't get too excited about us actually having something nice here until then.
 
Brent said:
My friend in Dallas has never believed January snow btw... He always says it's February

If you look at the climo there's been very few snowy January's

Way more February and even December
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Hey Brent. How much snow did you see out in Missouri? Was it a all time great storm where you were at. Your like me, I would drive 6-7 hours just to see some snow I love it so much.
 
Here we go, its starting to happen. Winter Storm Watches for parts of OK and AR with plenty more to come over the next few days. One of the best parts about the lead up to a winter storm is watching this map light up with alerts as they get closer and closer to you. Gonna be a fun next few days.IMG_0367.jpeg
 
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