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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Atlanta tv mets on ANF(cbs station) showing potential half an inch of ice on their models for downtown Atlanta on Friday. Can only imagine the grocery stores tonight and the next few days.
 
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Back end snow for SE AL/SW GA Even a little part of the panhandle


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Rain Cold said:
I think there is a good deal of merit to the point made by others upthread about the nature of this non-reinforcing, shallow CAD. An amped up system would, in fact, scour it out pretty effectively.

That said, I have seen models do what the GFS is attempting, only to correct south and east as we close in. It may be that the CAD trends a little stronger in time. That is not uncommon, even when there is no reinforcing HP. It may be that the system does really wind up.

It is possible, even likely, that such a system would run inland. That scenario is certainly not something to take off the table. However, I feel that the GFS, trying track the storm between GSO and RDU, is out to lunch. Up through the coastal plain? Yeah, ok, I'll bite on that.
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Would the CAD be reinforced or strengthened by the snow on the ground to our north or does one not affect the other? If it can strengthen it, do models pick up on that kind of stuff?
 
EastNcHeel said:
Would the CAD be reinforced or strengthened by the snow on the ground to our north or does one not affect the other? If it can strengthen it, do models pick up on that kind of stuff?
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If the low level feed is from the north, and there is snow on the ground to the north, it would help. What you want to see is strong HP in a good spot, ideally moving in in tandem with the storm, along with a cold source region. We don't really have a good HP here. That's a problem. How big of a problem is TBD.
 
Ok this may sounds really weenie-ish and I think I saw someone mention it earlier but I’ve been noticing and wondering too. Models have been increasing in the west more and more as we get closer to go time. Over the last few model runs totals keep increasing and extending farther east and continues to do so. Are we likely to see this trend continue?
 
Ethan80963 said:
Ok this may sounds really weenie-ish and I think I saw someone mention it earlier but I’ve been noticing and wondering too. Models have been increasing in the west more and more as we get closer to go time. Over the last few model runs totals keep increasing and extending farther east and continues to do so. Are we likely to see this trend continue?
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I alluded to the same earlier but feel like it's wishcasting to say it will increase as it goes east more. That being said, there is valid support on some ensemble members for a situation like that but it could correct itself soon.
 
jimmy said:
As I’ve been saying over the past few days, I still believe the models are underestimating the potential for winter weather. With snowpack, colder ground temperatures, and increasing model agreement, it’s just my opinion, but I feel this setup is only going to trend colder and snowier with each successive model run.
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Some of us are about to eat, and eat well.
 
Hey yall before it gets too crazy just wanna chime in with another voice of appreciation to the mets, mods, and knowledgeable members for the awesome discussions - makes this an awesome place to hang out and learn, so thank all yall!

Special shout out to the long time weenies who somehow sound the e x a c t same despite years and years of knowledge bouncing off yalls brains - true posters, much respect 🫡
 
poptones said:
Hey yall before it gets too crazy just wanna chime in with another voice of appreciation to the mets, mods, and knowledgeable members for the awesome discussions - makes this an awesome place to hang out and learn, so thank all yall!

Special shout out to the long time weenies who somehow sound the e x a c t same despite years and years of knowledge bouncing off yalls brains - true posters, much respect 🫡
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I love seeing another person in the neighborhood! Make sure you add yourself to the member map
 
Hard to argue against the NWS even though like most Meteorologists, I feel the have gone really conservative, rightly so. I’m not trying to argue amounts or types of precip but the models are showing a mid day start but their forecasts are 6-7 hours later on precip. Probably due to wanting to see more agreement. What makes them adjust forecasts? Never had an opportunity to talk to anyone associated.
 
Broken024 said:
When is your first call map being released to the public?
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ugh been holding off cause I’m gonna have a lot of angry people at me if they live in Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh and expect snow. I currently have less than <1” for them.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
ugh been holding off cause I’m gonna have a lot of angry people at me if they live in Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh and expect snow. I currently have less than QUOTE]

It’s your opinion they can get mad all they want


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