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Misc Cold Season Complaining

These are great posts from last night in our other storm thread. You can click the up arrow in the circle to go to the posts.

NickyBGuarantee said:
Just now being able to get on my phone and update.

Never been through a real ice storm before. And I don’t think I ever really want to again. Although, there is apart of me that enjoys being able to see the power of Mother Nature in all her forms.

One of the worst winter storms I’ve experienced in my life. Here in southern Illinois it’s like the day after tomorrow. We saw probably .75 or so of ice accrual all day long. Freezing drizzle after that all night. Finally an hour or so ago switched to snow. Snow will continue all night. Temps continue to drop.

Trees down everywhere. If the wind blows the trees will follow. The roads that were somewhat cleared from ice are now covered with snow. Complete ice rinks everywhere that wasn’t pretreated.

Did live hits all across the area. Trees over power lines. Roads a mess. Getting this all cleaned up will be a nightmare. Simply because temps don’t get above freezing for another week and we have multiple nights in the single digits (maybe lower??). The main road called route 13 that takes people from each small town to the next is completely dark.

The erriest night of my life. No power. Mystery tree sounds falling at random points. Power flash here. Power flash there. Now I sit back at my home no power just some candles. Listening to the trees crack as old man winter dumps some snow over everything to cover the treachery he bestowed on us today.

A remarkably powerful winter storm that I’m sure will make this area remember it. I certainly will.

(Pics attached were from earlier today outside the station. Much more fell after this.) View attachment 160226View attachment 160227View attachment 160228
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NickyBGuarantee said:
Sometimes you take winter weather warnings for granted but they are warnings for a reason. I myself have been caught up in the illusion that they are more tame. Luckily I made all the precautions necessary to hold me over for several days.. and hopefully power can be restored quicker than I think. Thanks for the kind words. Take the alerts seriously! Especially ice storms.
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People north of I -85 for every storm... always.

GIF by ESPN College Football
 
How reliable are these from the nws? Because I would gladly take the 3in of snow it shows
IMG_2593.jpeg
 
Mitch West said:
People acting way to depressed in here for a storm system that is trending colder. Like I am in Columbia & will likely get a 33 degree rain & I am more excited than some of yall. lol
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I'm personally in rage mode, I'm looking forward to this storm lol. Even in the worst scenarios on the models I stay frozen for 90% of it and it just looks to be a good storm for the entire southern tier of the U.S
 
Mitch West said:
People acting way to depressed in here for a storm system that is trending colder. Like I am in Columbia & will likely get a 33 degree rain & I am more excited than some of yall. lol
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i think that, for me at least, uncertainty around the 500mb evolution and interplay between northern stream shortwave/baja low gives this event some extra tension and anxiety
 
Hardly ever post, a few comments here and there. But whoever said north Alabama has had a few winter storms the last few years couldn’t possibly live in Etowah county. I digress.
 
ILMRoss said:
i think that, for me at least, uncertainty around the 500mb evolution and interplay between northern stream shortwave/baja low gives this event some extra tension and anxiety
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Agreed. I'm posting snowmen and sad face emoji's every other model run. We've gone from no storm and missing any phase, to too much phasing/too much amp, to too much positive tilt and progressive weak sauce. Until we know what kind of storm is going to make it to the Mississippi, it's all guessing.
 
I'm calling it, there ain't no way that a storm that gives a foot of snow over Texas is just gonna die out like that in the east. There will be more qpf, it obviously won't be all snow for a lot of areas but ain't no way the storm is gonna fizzle like that
 
Mitch West said:
People acting way to depressed in here for a storm system that is trending colder. Like I am in Columbia & will likely get a 33 degree rain & I am more excited than some of yall. lol
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I think some people, at least me are kinda frustrated that Dallas may get a foot of snow while we get an ice storm at best. A little frustrating that it's the same thing every year
 
Bigedd09 said:
I think some people, at least me are kinda frustrated that Dallas may get a foot of snow while we get an ice storm at best. A little frustrating that it's the same thing every year
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I assure you no one is more pissed about that than I am. I made a comment about it a couple weeks ago. I can agree that it's incredibly annoying.
 
SnowNiner said:
Agreed. I'm posting snowmen and sad face emoji's every other model run. We've gone from no storm and missing any phase, to too much phasing/too much amp, to too much positive tilt and progressive weak sauce. Until we know what kind of storm is going to make it to the Mississippi, it's all guessing.
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to me there's 3 pieces that determine everything

1736187987604.png
1- baja low- say no more fam. discussed ad nauseum. seems to be stabilizing but still time for shifts

2. this diving shortwave either tones everything up or strings it out. when this and the baja low are stacked on top of eachother we get good solutions. when the second shortwave is ahead of the low, thats when we get our strung out, sheared solutions. baja low never had a chance to catch up

3. this is what we need to pay attention to on the east. this shortwave comes in and reinvigorates the forcing. kinda acts like popeyes spinach. how it ends up, determines if i get my bomb and augusta gets their half inch of zr and raleigh gets their 10 inch gradient over wake county.

typically there's less parts than this
 
ILMRoss said:
to me there's 3 pieces that determine everything

View attachment 160382
1- baja low- say no more fam. discussed ad nauseum. seems to be stabilizing but still time for shifts

2. this diving shortwave either tones everything up or strings it out. when this and the baja low are stacked on top of eachother we get good solutions. when the second shortwave is ahead of the low, thats when we get our strung out, sheared solutions. baja low never had a chance to catch up

3. this is what we need to pay attention to on the east. this shortwave comes in and reinvigorates the forcing. kinda acts like popeyes spinach. how it ends up, determines if i get my bomb and augusta gets their half inch of zr and raleigh gets their 10 inch gradient over wake county.

typically there's less parts than this
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wave 3 seems like the last one models are still jumping around wildly with. Per the ukmet/JMA outcomes... we want it to come down strong and deep... seems like doing that acts to keep things progressing east and not fizzling out... of course if it comes down strong and deep, hooks up with the southern junk, and turns the corner, then Warm nose issues galore for NC.

If it stays strong but neutral and doesn't hook up, it's a nice compromise that plasters most of the board with snow like the ukmet shows.

If it does neither, (stays farther north and weak).. then we get a Euro/ICON like solution with a fizzling precip shield and most people are hoping for .1-.2 inches of liquid while dallas is calling in the national guard.

That's my opinion on the situation anyways
 
ILMRoss said:
to me there's 3 pieces that determine everything

View attachment 160382or
1- baja low- say no more fam. discussed ad nauseum. seems to be stabilizing but still time for shifts

2. this diving shortwave either tones everything up or strings it out. when this and the baja low are stacked on top of eachother we get good solutions. when the second shortwave is ahead of the low, thats when we get our strung out, sheared solutions. baja low never had a chance to catch up

3. this is what we need to pay attention to on the east. this shortwave comes in and reinvigorates the forcing. kinda acts like popeyes spinach. how it ends up, determines if i get my bomb and augusta gets their half inch of zr and raleigh gets their 10 inch gradient over wake county.

typically there's less parts than this
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Thanks Ross, So looking at the 60hr on the 18z this evening will give us more insight or does the look need to remain as it is at 66hrs?
 
Shawn said:
It's an ice storm for a lot of people. Not back, we are f word'ed.
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I don't know about your area but here it seems the zr threats in the recent past were more of a sn/ip mix than anything else. Hopefully some colder runs will put some fears at ease.
 
You can always tell when there have been some 'positive' changes to the storm forecast when the main thread starts getting flooded with messages asking for maps or grids for specific locations😂.
 
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