Pattern Caperil 2021

[GaWx]

The 12Z GFS will probably be colder than the last runs later, but that's not as important as the warmer changes in the earlier, more reliable part of the model. The later part is just cartoons.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I fear we go from a -NAO >> +PNA >>> straight into summer

 

[GaWx]

I fear we go from a -NAO >> +PNA >>> straight into summer

Fro, try to relax, man! No need to fear. It will be ok whether it happens as you stated or not. I promise. We'll get through this no matter what the wx (well, unless we're hit by a tornado). As JB loves to say, enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get.

12Z GEFS:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie

 

[GaWx]

Who doesn't love an entertaining cartoon?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenieView attachment 81361View attachment 81362View attachment 81360View attachment 81363

Lol 8C mid level lapse rates in the Carolinas is very rare in severe wx setups, this would arguably be supportive of humongous hail, especially given long straight Hodographs

 

[JakkelWx]

I fear we go from a -NAO >> +PNA >>> straight into summer

Yeah as the NAO retrogrades west, it should become a +PNA which leaves the trough in the east an opening for it to escape, so it gets replaced by a SER after the 20th. Last week of April should be pretty warm in the SE.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah as the NAO retrogrades west, it should become a +PNA which leaves the trough in the east an opening for it to escape, so it gets replaced by a SER after the 20th. Last week of April should be pretty warm in the SE.

Yep how it works almost everytime

 

[GaWx]

Unlike 12Z Goofy, 12Z Goofy ens mean isn't warmer than its 0Z version.

 

[SD]

Retrograde the NAO too fast and you get this mess

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Retrograde the NAO too fast and you get this mess
View attachment 81366

Wedges

 

[SD]

Solid troll by RAH


Pine pollen (yellow) has been increasing through the Sandhills and
eastern Piedmont in the last few days. Some light accumulation has
been noted on all surfaces (probably already more pollen has accumulated
than the total snowfall observed this past winter season for most
of us)!

 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS in a word: chilly!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pain. Low testosterone/low adrenaline weather incoming

 

[Myfrotho704_]

There’s honestly no way we avoid this, that cutoff in the pacific pretty much ensures we get a +PNA

 

[SD]

There’s honestly no way we avoid this, that cutoff in the pacific pretty much ensures we get a +PNA View attachment 81370View attachment 81371

We've basically had the same weather since Thanksgiving

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We've basically had the same weather since Thanksgiving

Yeah I’m so ready to get back the same backwards L BN height Anomaly pattern from the arctic to the west coast again with us ridged

 

[GaWx]

Chill out time?

 

[SD]

Yeah I’m so ready to get back the same backwards L BN height Anomaly pattern from the arctic to the west coast again with us ridged

We will start popping 85-90 regularly in May then it'll be wE wEnT sTrAiGhT tO sUmMeR, GlObAl WuRmInG

 

[Bham 99]

Pain. Low testosterone/low adrenaline weather incoming View attachment 81368View attachment 81369

At worst highs will be in the upper 50s.

 

[SD]

At worst highs will be in the upper 50s.

That sucks I have plenty of those in DJF

 

[JakkelWx]

Lack of snow depth in canada screams moderation in any long range cold as we get closer in time

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That sucks I have plenty of those in DJF

Had to much of those with the same pattern this Past winter

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Lack of snow depth in canada screams moderation in any long range cold as we get closer in time

View attachment 81373

Yeah i'm not sure the models take into account the lack of snow cover plus the high sun angle this time of year.

 

[SD]

Had to much of those with the same pattern this Past winter

Yeah I'm interested to see how the Euro goes at 12z

 

[Bham 99]

Just think when we head into May, the cold days will be in the 60s..

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah I'm interested to see how the Euro goes at 12z

Dunno but geez it mixes out all of our cape/dews on Friday ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just think when we head into May, the cold days will be in the 60s..

Yeah thank goodness

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol wut

 

[SD]

Dunno but geez it mixes out all of our cape/dews on Friday ?

Nam did the same. Oof city

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam did the same. Oof city

Nam still left over 1k CAPE tho, with big ol inverted Vs however, think I’m just ready to get this into HRRR range

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here comes trash but before hand

 

[SD]

Here comes trash but before hand View attachment 81380View attachment 81381

I wish we could just go ahead and block the upper low farther SW. Give me a bunch of rain

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I wish we could just go ahead and block the upper low farther SW. Give me a bunch of rain

Maybe if that S/W headed onto the west coast could speed up and sorta pull the ULL given flow is completely blocked

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SD]

View attachment 81383View attachment 81382

Just think if it was Feb we would find a way to pop a SER

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just think if it was Feb we would find a way to pop a SER

We literally had that same look in feb on model past hour 180 which is the crazy part

 

[LickWx]

We literally had that same look in feb on model past hour 180 which is the crazy part

It’s been the same pattern being recycled and tweaked slightly since December !

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why

 

[LickWx]

Why View attachment 81387

So that we can melt all the Arctic sea ice and change winter so dramatically it becomes unrecognizable . @GaWx we are playing with fire here !! Be careful for what you wish for !

Northern territories of Canada losing their snowpack very early in the game . Meaning less snow to insolate the already weak ice. This is literally the spring of 2012 lol.