Pattern Caperil 2021

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow the Gfs really just pinwheels systems around a broad area of low pressure that can’t move cause of the -NAO ... so crazy .. probably wave upon wave of cool to cold air with warmer air as each system departs and some southerly winds can try to warm things up for a day .. -NAO set ups are still unpredictable even at this time of year lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah and it's not going to do much to the bugs at all. The eggs are larvae probably won't freeze off so they will be right back as soon as it's warm. I'm trying to decide if I want to run my sprinklers tomorrow night or just say screw it and hope for the best

There’s mayflies out already, no joke, and I’ve already been bitten by mosquitoes (which I don’t care to be real), moths are out, tent web caterpillars are out

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

if this happens I’m going to a lake because I guess this isn’t happening anytime soon after next week, fuckthenegativenao View attachment 81062

Both of our sides have resorted to the worst models to prove our case haha ... I got GFS (v16 too lmao) and you got ole gramps CMC ... what have we become

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Both of our sides have resorted to the worst models to prove our case haha ... I got GFS (v16 too lmao) and you got ole gramps CMC ... what have we become

At least what I showed is closer tho, which gives it more validation

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We’re gonna have to get rid of the -NAO to see warmth last, when does the -NAO go ? I don’t know

 

[SD]

We’re gonna have to get rid of the -NAO to see warmth last, when does the -NAO go ? I don’t know

Realistically we may be fighting this ---- bag for probably 3 weeks. I'd hedge my bets on some ? ? ? late April into early May

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Realistically we may be fighting this ---- bag for probably 3 weeks. I'd hedge my bets on some ? ? ? late April into early May

lol imagine if the -NAO ridge retrogrades to us and that’s how it ends

 

[SD]

lol imagine if the -NAO ridge retrogrades to us and that’s how it ends

Ha that would probably end up as wedge town. I'd rather just retrograde it across Canada then off the west coast and pop the SER. As much as I like cold and snow it's April I want 70s and 80s

 

[cd2play]

We’re gonna have to get rid of the -NAO to see warmth last, when does the -NAO go ? I don’t know

Late November

 

[GaWx]

I'm not saying I'm buying it yet since it is over 10 days out and also it could easily be overdone since there is a cold bias, but there is hope as at least the last 4 GFS runs have shown widespread BN during the 11-15 along with decent backing from the ensemble means and this is somewhat believable with the -NAO:

 

[LickWx]

Ha that would probably end up as wedge town. I'd rather just retrograde it across Canada then off the west coast and pop the SER. As much as I like cold and snow it's April I want 70s and 80s

Last few runs of the GFS pushed the cold more to the west and southwest. Chances we west trend this enough to be cold air dammed in like February?

 

[JakkelWx]

The sad part is that's not an exaggeration, scorch the leaves, cold april. Mid May at the earliest. Poor farmers. Well, at least no severe right, and no bugs right...

Lol. It's probably a higher likelihood that the -NAO ends up falling apart sooner due to the polar vortex being strong for this time of year. Check this out:

 

[SD]

Last few runs of the GFS pushed the cold more to the west and southwest. Chances we west trend this enough to be cold air dammed in like February?

I hope not but the more west/sw we trend the more we will try to sneak in a wedge. I feel like this ends up as a decaying low over the lakes where we are cool with random chances at some low topped convection and decently below normal temps.

 

[LickWx]

What about the Euro? Looked at its control run and it looks about the same as the CMC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is the unluckiest wavebreak ever, as @JakkelWx said the PV state isn’t even supportive of blocking

 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS is beautiful to me and is the coldest run yet!

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Weather today is PURE AWESOME! ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What a disaster

 

[CraggyRider]

We’re gonna have to get rid of the -NAO to see warmth last, when does the -NAO go ? I don’t know

Last year it went to mid-May, high country was getting snow on May 9. For years now -NAO has set in either March or April. Hate to see it yet again Totally agree with you about it, F -NAO in the Spring

 

[LickWx]

What a disaster View attachment 81071

Let it happen, let’s sacrifice spring for a torch summer . Let’s get massive high latitude blocking to bring the lowest sea ice extent ever = less cold air than ever before next winter . See how those weenies like that! Go ahead play with fire weenies I dare you! Won’t be nothing but open ocean between North America and Eurasia . No more ice ! See how y’all like that !