NoSnowATL
Member
A good 3-4 week drought is needed! No water source = dead MFers
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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yep sitting by the pond hearing the spring peepers and frogs and got bit by like 3-4, I don’t really mind them tho , typically their bites around here aren’t that problematic, Honduras is a much different case tho
I got wasps and bees out and about on the back porch ... always making me watch my back while I’m tryna enjoy the low humidity ... they love the semi new wood our deck is made out of ... wouldn’t be surprised if they try setting up headquarters somewhere near .. @Myfrotho704_ is probably the leader of them all?
If it stayed like this forever .. life would be simpler around here
Long exposure shot of the ISS 
Let’s freaking go 
cd2play
Member
I think we still have a cool snap or two yet to go through at some point before summer sets in.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I don't get the name of this thread.
Convective available potential energy (Cape) + April.
Cape is commonly associated with springtime thunderstorms. April is spring.
Become a severe wx weenie plzzzzzz some average H5 maps for severe would be awesome
I actually made an MSLP anomaly map for the April 1974 storm today. Then I did SBCAPE but haven't got a good color pallet. I might post it.
Dude if you could do some past severe wx events and post on twitter you’d go ?
Wxtwitter is 90% severe weenies
Yeah, I had somebody tell me the exact same thing yesterday. You'd need to tell me what storms to plot because the only one I'm really familiar with is April 2011.
I got you with a list of several severe weather events tomorrow
Holy doodoo balls, I just noticed something. Are we headed to the trifecta of -NAO, -AO, and +PNA in 7-10 days? The GEFS sure seems to think so. If so, that is not exactly favorable for any strong and long lasting warmth in the SE US. I was assuming we're done with the stupid/historic cold (by April standards), but this has me wondering if we still have a decent BN period still to come midmonth, which @SD has been honking about. I said yesterday that I felt the chilly map being shown was likely fake or at least overdone due to cold bias, but after seeing these indices I'm not as confident about that. Check these out:
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GEFS: remember those runs from just 4 days ago for midmonth that were solidly cold in the SE due largely to a -NAO? Then they disappeared as @Myfrotho704_ Fro was correctly and enthusiastically pointing out. Now, my turn for enthusiasm as it seems they're back as this one (0Z) is the coldest one since those cold runs of Thu with not much time slippage:
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Check out his comparison of last Thursday's 12Z GEFS and the brand new one for the same period showing the BN showing up again with only slight time slippage albeit with a somewhat different pattern where -NAO is still there but +PNA is more prominent: I bet @NickyBGuarantee would be jumping up and down with excitement if he saw this:
Thu 12Z run:
Brand new 0Z run:
WARNING: THESE ARE JUST MODELED CARTOONS AND THUS SHOULD BE USED WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS THEY MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR FORECASTING HEALTH!
Thu 12Z run:
Brand new 0Z run:
WARNING: THESE ARE JUST MODELED CARTOONS AND THUS SHOULD BE USED WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS THEY MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR FORECASTING HEALTH!
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Thank you @GaWx for sharing the enthusiasm ... let me a get a little weenie on everyone since like you pointed they did the same ... FEAST YOUR EYES ON THIS *simulation run very far out will be wrong but in general with this type of pattern look for late cool downs like this* .. who wants late season chilly air .. bet we see some frosts out of this if it were allowed to go forward .. this is LATE April .. good lord it’s beautiful .. ski resorts will love this! ??
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Not one EPS member is sub 40 here but that is likely going to be too high given the look with a potential for low dewpoints coming in and good radiational cooling nights.
As long as we can avoid a hard freeze we should be ok. I actually think the more impressive Cold potential is in the 10-14 day range when the Nao breaks and the pna becomes a little taller and the main driver. The good news is every day that we go forward its a little harder to get a freeze even with a cold H5 setup
smast16
Member
As far as the grass is concerned, soil temps are the biggest driver, and one night shot in the low 40's upper 30's will hardly be noticed by turf. The thermal mass of soil is too great. Given the recent 70's and upcoming 80's, I think a brief cool spell will help to slow the rise of soil temps and keep them in the 60's, which is prime cool season grass growth... (unless you have bermuda... #stillsleeping)
@SD Correct me if I'm wrong...
You are correct. It'll be good weather if you have fescue or overseeded rye. The warm season stuff should green up again and a few nights in the upper 30s will stress it but not kill it.
smast16
Member
cd2play
Member
Almost 70 already looks like we set the bar for warmest day so far in 2021 today then raise it tomorrow
The MJO seems to be driving the pattern more than the teleconnections.
Right now it is in phase 6, which would suggest a continued warm pattern for the central / eastern US. But if it manages to get into phase 7, then yeah, it's going to cool off.
Right now it is in phase 6, which would suggest a continued warm pattern for the central / eastern US. But if it manages to get into phase 7, then yeah, it's going to cool off.
Well done
This is straight depressing why can’t we keep the weather we have now , 
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76F back home and 73F here lol
Because change is perfectly normal for wx outside of summer. That's good because changes make wx more interesting for this wx hobbyist. I could ask the same question you did about the recent cold, but that also wouldn't be realistic as my liking of it is irrelevant.
I think changes are bound to happen especially with such a large block .. we remember how all models basically sucked outside of 3 days I bet we see wild changes for next couple days
Bring it on. I love to follow wild model changes as they struggle to discover what is already determined. If they hardly changed from run to run, who would be following them with this much enjoyment? Not I!
The 12Z GEFS early maps are already confirming that it, too, will likely be warmer toward midmonth.
These warmer changes are related to a westward shift at H5.
Worth noting that wavelengths are shortened so a +PNA could mean something trying to go the central US vs the eastern US, especially initially