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Pattern August '22

Winter storm Warning for NE Alaska.

1Weather

A Winter Storm warning is in place for northeastern parts of the Brooks Range, Alaska, through Sunday morning. A storm system, cool air and plenty of moisture will result in the region's first significant snowfall of the season. Over 8 inches of snowfall is likely at higher elevations and this could cause travel difficulties in the Dalton Highway.
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See no reason to think rain is realistic around here through day 16. Maybe a few storms today likely west of US1. Maybe a few storms on Wed Thursday with the front but based on history they usually under perform and its looking less impressive on the models to me. Once the front passes you can forget rain chances for 5-7 days. Think less than .5 of rain here for the month is a slam dunk. Really hoping for less than .13 to finish the summer at a pathetic 6
 
SD said:
See no reason to think rain is realistic around here through day 16. Maybe a few storms today likely west of US1. Maybe a few storms on Wed Thursday with the front but based on history they usually under perform and its looking less impressive on the models to me. Once the front passes you can forget rain chances for 5-7 days. Think less than .5 of rain here for the month is a slam dunk. Really hoping for less than .13 to finish the summer at a pathetic 6
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Me too. Not mowing has been awesome.

I think there will be a few days scattered in there with more convective activity due to factors that the models can't resolve well. But widespread soaking rains look unrealistic for the foreseeable future.
 
Rain Cold said:
Me too. Not mowing has been awesome.

I think there will be a few days scattered in there with more convective activity due to factors that the models can't resolve well. But widespread soaking rains look unrealistic for the foreseeable future.
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RAH is pumped about the drier forcast next weekend must be nice to live somewhere that gets rain and can say that.
 
SD said:
RAH is pumped about the drier forcast next weekend must be nice to live somewhere that gets rain and can say that.
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Given their record lately, I'd expect rain chances to ramp up as we head toward the weekend. Whenever they're bullish on rain, rain chances always ramp down as we move in.
 
I got VERY luck last night and got under a cell that gave us 3" in about an hour. Just to the east and north of me was nothing, I was right on the edge. Just west of me should have done even better.
 
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Although we have an unfortunately drier than average forecast I’ve r the next few days area wide.. I do see chances of rain not disappearing over the next couple weeks. In fact there seems to be many different pieces of energy moving in to keep rain chances up after this dry period which should help keep significant drought concerns at bay.. other than at @SD house where there will always be a perma drought.
 
looking good:

From RAH:
Wednesday appears likely to be the hottest day of the week, with
most locations rising into the low to mid 90s. Heat indices should
approach, but fall short of heat advisory criteria of 105. Thursday
should be a transition day with temperatures, but by the weekend,
high temperatures in the 90s should be very isolated with most
locations in the 80s. After one more night of lows in the 70s
Wednesday night, temperatures will be cooler Thursday night, and by
Saturday morning, locations near the Virginia border could drop into
the upper 50s with 60s elsewhere.

My Grid forecast:
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 82.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 85.

**Not cool and crisp, but this will still feel wonderful.
 
0z and 6z GFS and the 0z Euro both support heat and humidity through mid-week before a front moves through the area, bringing a greater chance for showers and storms and lower temps and humidity for late week. Both show a general troughing in the east through days 10-12 before hints of ridging returns (on the GFS) days 14-16. 6z also shows a couple of SE tropical threats, though the systems remain offshore.

All in all, we should get a nice taste of fall with highs on a couple of days maybe struggling to get to 80.

Looks
 
Rain Cold said:
0z and 6z GFS and the 0z Euro both support heat and humidity through mid-week before a front moves through the area, bringing a greater chance for showers and storms and lower temps and humidity for late week. Both show a general troughing in the east through days 10-12 before hints of ridging returns (on the GFS) days 14-16. 6z also shows a couple of SE tropical threats, though the systems remain offshore.

All in all, we should get a nice taste of fall with highs on a couple of days maybe struggling to get to 80.

Looks
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What a look.

1659961011536.png
 
FallsLake said:
6z GFS for Sunday the 21st. I'm supposed to leave for Hatteras the next day...:( Thank goodness this is still out in la la land.

View attachment 120525
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Bring it over my and @SD 's area. Although with our luck, we would just sit in the eye the whole time.
 
GFS is heat happy in the LR so that remains to be seen. And as we get deeper into the month it’s going to be harder and harder for big time heat to happen. Hot days by the end of August is usually the upper 80’s around here vs 100’s. And by the time you get into early September, those averages start to drop like a rock. Summer in my opinion really has only a couple weeks left to get big time heat this way and only about a month left of summer time type weather - 80’s and humidity.
 
iGRXY said:
GFS is heat happy in the LR so that remains to be seen. And as we get deeper into the month it’s going to be harder and harder for big time heat to happen. Hot days by the end of August is usually the upper 80’s around here vs 100’s. And by the time you get into early September, those averages start to drop like a rock. Summer in my opinion really has only a couple weeks left to get big time heat this way and only about a month left of summer time type weather - 80’s and humidity.
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It's been humid well into October the last several years making going to the state fair miserable. Dew points have also been in the mid 70s for months when that was usually more common near the coast.
 
BHS1975 said:
It's been humid well into October the last several years making going to the state fair miserable. Dew points have also been in the mid 70s for months when that was usually more common near the coast.
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It can certainly be humid in October, but the later in the year it gets, the more difficult it is to have consistent dewpoints in the 70s.
 
BHS1975 said:
It's been humid well into October the last several years making going to the state fair miserable. Dew points have also been in the mid 70s for months when that was usually more common near the coast.
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Sea ice is high and no records were broken . Sorry man. October looks about the same as it always has . There were some hot octobers in the 1940s.
 
12z gfs is trying to retrograde the heat ridge all the way to the 4 corners. Not entirely sure I'd buy pushing it that far west but I'd love to see it.

In the meantime a few things to look forward to. The front and trough axis look slow enough we have 2 days of decent storm chances this week, I'd favor Wednesday to be more widespread. It also seems more likely quite a few folks in NC will make a run at a sub 60 degree low this weekend. Finally early to mid next week gets a little messy with the ridge anchored to the west and a number of small disturbances and mcvs riding in the flow. I still think this trough cuts off at some point
 
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