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Pattern August '22

I'd wager that the chances of me finishing the month where I currently sit at 0.75" are better than 50/50. If that were to happen, that would put my June-August rain totals at 7.62", or 54% of the average during that time period

Makes me wonder if my little corner of Durham County is one of the driest locations in the Triangle area.....
 
Bannerdude said:
I'd wager that the chances of me finishing the month where I currently sit at 0.75" are better than 50/50. If that were to happen, that would put my June-August rain totals at 7.62", or 54% of the average during that time period

Makes me wonder if my little corner of Durham County is one of the driest locations in the Triangle area.....
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We are in this together. Even with getting some decent rains this month im only around 8.5 for JJA sector_NC__network_WFO__src_mrms__opt_dep__usdm_no__ptype_g__sdate_2022-06-01__edate_2022-08-2...png
 
It's pretty disappointing that we have a nice disturbance rotating through nam3km_z500_vort_seus_fh4-16.gif
But pwats are mehpwtr (1).gif Thanks to the front/trough passage Monday so the net result is womp oofhrrr_apcpn_seus_15 (1).png

I've said it before I'll say it again summer front passages are doo doo and kill rain chances far longer on the back end than model forecasts
 
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SD said:
We are in this together. Even with getting some decent rains this month im only around 8.5 for JJA View attachment 120934
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Interesting map, look at that other dry corridor in NE NC. I had 1.6 in June and 1.6 so far this month but according to the Weather Flow, 8.6 in July, which puts me over 11" for JJA. However, I noticed yesterday where my brother had some water lines put it (dug down over 24"), there was little to no soil moisture below the surface and most creeks are still low, ponds too. So, not sure if my PWS was off that much in August or thanks to the bookend dry months it didn't do much.
 
metwannabe said:
Interesting map, look at that other dry corridor in NE NC. I had 1.6 in June and 1.6 so far this month but according to the Weather Flow, 8.6 in July, which puts me over 11" for JJA. However, I noticed yesterday where my brother had some water lines put it (dug down over 24"), there was little to no soil moisture below the surface and most creeks are still low, ponds too. So, not sure if my PWS was off that much in August or thanks to the bookend dry months it didn't do much.
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Probably just didn't do much. I've had a bunch of .33 .4 .6 type events and that's great to keep the grass green but it's not doing a lot for the water table when you are barely wetting through the root zone
 
SD said:
Probably just didn't do much. I've had a bunch of .33 .4 .6 type events and that's great to keep the grass green but it's not doing a lot for the water table when you are barely wetting through the root zone
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A local pond dropped so much the grass grew on the exposed dirt. Now newly exposed bottom is visible. Like you we get enough rain every 10 days or so to keep us from going full on desert but PGV is still running a 6.15 inch deficit.
 
Shaggy said:
A local pond dropped so much the grass grew on the exposed dirt. Now newly exposed bottom is visible. Like you we get enough rain every 10 days or so to keep us from going full on desert but PGV is still running a 6.15 inch deficit.
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Yeah I mean I guess the bright side is we have some low chances of rain through the next 7 days 10-20% but there's nothing coming along that's going to give decent pops (maybe if we get lucky Saturday over performs along the sea breezs, mountains and piemont troughs). We are about to the point where we need a tropical system to offset the dry. It sucks the trough axis moved through this week and pushed the higher pwat air into SC. We could have done very well if it stayed flatter
 
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SD said:
Probably just didn't do much. I've had a bunch of .33 .4 .6 type events and that's great to keep the grass green but it's not doing a lot for the water table when you are barely wetting through the root z
metwannabe said:
Interesting map, look at that other dry corridor in NE NC. I had 1.6 in June and 1.6 so far this month but according to the Weather Flow, 8.6 in July, which puts me over 11" for JJA. However, I noticed yesterday where my brother had some water lines put it (dug down over 24"), there was little to no soil moisture below the surface and most creeks are still low, ponds too. So, not sure if my PWS was off that much in August or thanks to the bookend dry months it didn't do much.
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I've had 3 rains since May that have totaled over 1". 2 of those were in brief thunderstorms lasting less than 45 minutes, so it just washed into the creeks.

But on a broader level, i think this is more how our yearly water cycle is. We typically dry out the subsurface moisture in the summer months, as intermittent rains like Summer thunderstorms dont have the ability to get water that deep. However, i believe we typically replensish the deeper moisture in the fall / Winter / Spring soaking rains. Repeated, slow, soaking rains during a time of low evapotranspiration is how we get moisture that deep.

I say that because this past fall / winter were dry at a time when we typically are rebuilding our water table.
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smast16 said:
I've had 3 rains since May that have totaled over 1". 2 of those were in brief thunderstorms lasting less than 45 minutes, so it just washed into the creeks.

But on a broader level, i think this is more how our yearly water cycle is. We typically dry out the subsurface moisture in the summer months, as intermittent rains like Summer thunderstorms dont have the ability to get water that deep. However, i believe we typically replensish the deeper moisture in the fall / Winter / Spring soaking rains. Repeated, slow, soaking rains during a time of low evapotranspiration is how we get moisture that deep.

I say that because this past fall / winter were dry at a time when we typically are rebuilding our water table.
View attachment 120940
View attachment 120941
View attachment 120942
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Indeed. Our water year is 10/1-9/30 so we should theoretically be near our min now and max around 4/1
 
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