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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Would be interesting to see how BRAD reacts if this becomes even something half as great as the RAP is showing
 
I’m not seeing it??
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
15z RAP..not my model of choice but here it is
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My hot take fwiw (and trust not much), while those insane accum totals on the RAP are well just that insane, I do believe the idea here is this, there will be one localized spot that jackpots. The heaviest precip with cold 850's, marginal bl temps and last just long enough to get a nice paste job.... how big will that locale be? And where exactly will that be? TBD, but someone going to get an isolated nice spring snow.... I wish it was me but hey it is what it is Lol
 
metwannabe said:
My hot take fwiw (and trust not much), while those insane accum totals on the RAP are well just that insane, I do believe the idea here is this, there will be one localized spot that jackpots. The heaviest precip with cold 850's, marginal bl temps and last just long enough to get a nice paste job.... how big will that locale be? And where exactly will that be? TBD, but someone going to get an isolated nice spring snow.... I wish it was me but hey it is what it is Lol
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lol RAP says 45+ dbz's with snow on top of areas for hours, its definetly smoking crack lol
 
Game Set Match north-east of Charlotte. Any chasers need to look around Concord to Midland. Not sure how Far East it will extend maybe a county or two. 1-3” is a SAFE bet.
 
It is hard to believe that there will be one little bubble of snow along the NC/W-Central SC line and no snow anywhere else...sort of like the RAP is depicting above. Not expecting the RAP to verify, but many models show a similar outcome in terms of snowfall distribution.
 
Rain Cold said:
It is hard to believe that there will be one little bubble of snow along the NC/W-Central SC line and no snow anywhere else...sort of like the RAP is depicting above. Not expecting the RAP to verify, but many models show a similar outcome in terms of snowfall distribution.
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Well what do you expect, it's wedged between two of the most prominent snow shields in the SE so it's going to squeeze snow lollipop right out of those clouds....
 
I would do Winter Weather Advisory for Charlotte and the few counties that borders to the north. Just a small swath for 1-3”. More may actually fall but with melting I think 1-3”. Special weather statements elsewhere for grassy accumulations up to 1”.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I would do Winter Weather Advisory for Charlotte and the few counties that borders to the north. Just a small swath for 1-3”. More may actually fall but with melting I think 1-3”. Special weather statements elsewhere for grassy accumulations up to 1”.
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Thanks DUDE. Please be careful out there.
 
Before anyone gets excited, you never want to be on the southern extent of a euro snow map. That will likely fall as rain.
 
A friendly reminder to everyone: With an impending late-season winter storm, there will likely be an elevated level of excitement and anticipation as the event draws near. Some may even experience an increase in heart rate, sweaty palms, and also blurred vision, making it difficult to accurately examine both the content and intensity of the precipitation that may soon be falling. Whether you see any snowflakes or just think that you do, please -- PLEASE -- resist the urge to call 911. This channel should be used for actual emergencies. We do not want to tie up resources with road reports, snowflake size, or storm bust laments. Thank you for your cooperation.
 
I would imagine if that 4-6” rain underperforms on the OBX then a sig. winter storm would occur for the Charlotte metro and surrounding areas. With the EURO showing warning criteria for the Hickory area I think more surprises could come down to the wire with little to no warning.
 
Euro 5 run trend from TOS.
kZnMgKn.gif
 
Take about a third of this and you get the general idea, using globals and high res models while the former is not properly dispersed for this range gives you roughly the same idea for this storm (because amts will probably be small in any case). Up to a slushy inch (maybe 2 at the very most) possible in isolated areas near the I-85 corridor between the GA state line & Greensboro/Winston-Salem. 0z high resolution runs later this evening will be worth looking at to modify smaller-scale details

download - 2019-04-01T151829.409.png
 
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