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Pattern Anaphylactic August

Tarheel1 said:
Last weeks drought index had me in dry or abnormally dry! Anxiously awaiting tomorrows good news!
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Probably won't change the big rain that some areas got this week will probably be widespread enough for an expansion of any dry conditions.

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SD said:
I doubt it. The spc mesoanalysis says there is a good amount of mlcape left over the area but any updraft that has tried to get going behind this lead wave and outflow boundary has died. Its going to take another strong wave to provide enough lift to overcome some subsidence and get things to fire up. Watch the I85 corridor over the next 1-2 hours to see what gets going there, if storms fire and start rolling east maybe we have a chance but I think the more likely scenario is a few isolated storms after dark with the best chance of that being along and south of the outflow from the early day storms

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HRRR brings the stuff near CLT this way later.


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SD said:
I doubt it. The spc mesoanalysis says there is a good amount of mlcape left over the area but any updraft that has tried to get going behind this lead wave and outflow boundary has died. Its going to take another strong wave to provide enough lift to overcome some subsidence and get things to fire up. Watch the I85 corridor over the next 1-2 hours to see what gets going there, if storms fire and start rolling east maybe we have a chance but I think the more likely scenario is a few isolated storms after dark with the best chance of that being along and south of the outflow from the early day storms

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A picture to go along with this. The yellow x is the disturbance from earlier the green is the outflow and the 2 red xs are possible areas to develop and move into our area later. You can see the black area in much of central nc where the updrafts and clouds have been limited
61b8f11004baa023699244de0c68d099.jpg


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Looks like the watch for Wake has already been cancelled, though. I think this ends up being a bust for most.
 
I would not be shocked if this area goes the rest of this month without another drop of rain.
 
JHS said:
I would not be shocked if this area goes the rest of this month without another drop of rain.
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Nah even my bitter ass knows better than that. I don't think that the mid and long range look terribly bad for rainfall

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Brent said:
2nd 100 degree day here... probably starting a streak of 5 or 6 the heat index is still 90 right now :confused:

But on the bright side usually by now we have at least 10 or 15(some years way more) and the days are getting shorter!
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You probably jinxed it earlier with your bragging.
 
SD said:
Looks like some of us will have a shot at 100 by mid next week. Thanks Brent

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Fortunately, it doesn't look to become a static pattern, if you believe the GFS. It brings a trough back into the east.

By the way, I hate August. It is my least favorite month of the year.
 
I live 1 mile east of the I-59/20 and I-459 Interchange in McCalla AL and have only had .2" of rain in the past 6 weeks. Even these recent mesos dropping from North to South have died entering northern Jefferson County and never made it too us. You can see us on the drought monitor with the circle on Southwest Jefferson and Northern Shelby County in AL. I have never posted in the "whamby" thread but I'm about to start. The "scattered" storms just don't get it for our area. Poopers Mac Poopy, Poop!
 
Right now we got the ring of fire pattern for my area in Arkansas with the big high pressure in central Texas. Good to see some rain in my area since its August.
 
Shocked/not shocked!?D7C20C12-7735-4F94-B7E8-1B46B3F3EB81.png
 
Marginal risk up this way tomorrow, if a mcs can get going in Va might be a quick wind threat here but most likely just to my NE.... outflows could have good gust however. Derecho'esque maybe

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metwannabe said:
Marginal risk up this way tomorrow, if a mcs can get going in Va might be a quick wind threat here but most likely just to my NE.... outflows could have good gust however. Derecho'esque maybe

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I do truly hope y'all get some rain, but you know it's boring when we're left to posting marginal risk factors in August (which, BTW, I'm very happy about since marginal doesn't scream horror) ... ;)
 
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