B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Was just getting ready to post this. RAH said the first round could keep the second round from being worse east of US 1. I wonder if that's still the case. Or maybe we'll just get one round now.
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Pattern Anaphylactic August
- Thread starter Tarheel1
- Start date
Was just getting ready to post this. RAH said the first round could keep the second round from being worse east of US 1. I wonder if that's still the case. Or maybe we'll just get one round now.
Yeah that line is really putting itself together. Im concerned that im a little too far south.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
RAH updated their discussion. Sounds like they think there will still be two rounds of storms, with the second round being worse.
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1248 PM Wednesday...
The increasingly negatively tilted upper trough continues to buckle
as a series of mid level disturbances progress around its base,
further ejecting across the southern Middle Atlantic States. The
first of which, now sliding east through the foothills and western
Piedmont counties of NC, has begun to ignite convection via an old
MCS outflow boundary now sliding east across the eastern portions of
the Triad region as of 16z/12pm. With good mid to upper forcing now
accompanying this feature into a better destabilized environment
(characterized by 3500+ SB CAPE and 1500 - 2500 J/KG ML CAPE)
expecting this convection to increase in coverage and intensity as
it pushes east with time. With the presence of 30 - 35kt effective
bulk shear and high composite indices via the most recent
mesoanalysis, thinking the severe threat will increase quickly this
afternoon, especially as the storms approach and push east of the
Triangle region into the better DCAPE environment. With this batch,
damaging wind gusts from multicell clusters, embedded weak
supercells, and associated wet microbursts along with hail will
remain the primary hazard this afternoon/early evening. Secondary
threats include an isolated Tornado (primarily east of the Triangle
toward the VA border) along with pockets of heavy rainfall which
could lead to urban and small stream flooding. Luckily, the storms
should have some movement to them, keeping the Flash Flood threat
more isolated.
This evening/tonight, a secondary and more intense shortwave will
reach the apex of the trough, potentially spurring additional strong
to severe thunderstorms across central NC lasting well into the
overnight hours. Some uncertainty remains here, especially in
regards to how much instability remains after the first batch of
storms slide through the region. CAMs continue to do a poor job with
initiation this afternoon, so have little faith in their (likely
underdone) outcomes this evening. Thinking the best chance of some
strong lingering storms will be across the southern and western
zones, which to this point, seems that they may be spared from the
most widespread coverage from the first round of convection.
Convection should begin to diminish from west to east during the
overnight hours tonight as the true front enters in from the west.
Expect slowly clearing skies, some patchy fog formation, and
overnight temperatures to cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1248 PM Wednesday...
The increasingly negatively tilted upper trough continues to buckle
as a series of mid level disturbances progress around its base,
further ejecting across the southern Middle Atlantic States. The
first of which, now sliding east through the foothills and western
Piedmont counties of NC, has begun to ignite convection via an old
MCS outflow boundary now sliding east across the eastern portions of
the Triad region as of 16z/12pm. With good mid to upper forcing now
accompanying this feature into a better destabilized environment
(characterized by 3500+ SB CAPE and 1500 - 2500 J/KG ML CAPE)
expecting this convection to increase in coverage and intensity as
it pushes east with time. With the presence of 30 - 35kt effective
bulk shear and high composite indices via the most recent
mesoanalysis, thinking the severe threat will increase quickly this
afternoon, especially as the storms approach and push east of the
Triangle region into the better DCAPE environment. With this batch,
damaging wind gusts from multicell clusters, embedded weak
supercells, and associated wet microbursts along with hail will
remain the primary hazard this afternoon/early evening. Secondary
threats include an isolated Tornado (primarily east of the Triangle
toward the VA border) along with pockets of heavy rainfall which
could lead to urban and small stream flooding. Luckily, the storms
should have some movement to them, keeping the Flash Flood threat
more isolated.
This evening/tonight, a secondary and more intense shortwave will
reach the apex of the trough, potentially spurring additional strong
to severe thunderstorms across central NC lasting well into the
overnight hours. Some uncertainty remains here, especially in
regards to how much instability remains after the first batch of
storms slide through the region. CAMs continue to do a poor job with
initiation this afternoon, so have little faith in their (likely
underdone) outcomes this evening. Thinking the best chance of some
strong lingering storms will be across the southern and western
zones, which to this point, seems that they may be spared from the
most widespread coverage from the first round of convection.
Convection should begin to diminish from west to east during the
overnight hours tonight as the true front enters in from the west.
Expect slowly clearing skies, some patchy fog formation, and
overnight temperatures to cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
I'm not entirely sure that this initial band will have a huge negative impact on a second band. There is a good amount of lift and forcing approaching, we will only need a few hundred jkg of Cape
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Here comes the watch shortly
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Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 071650Z - 071815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected through the afternoon
and evening. A watch is possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form along a surface cold front
in central North Carolina. The airmass ahead of these storms is
already very unstable with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
and temperatures approaching 90 yielding MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500
J/kg. Mid-level flow around 40 knots will provide sufficient shear
for storm organization. Expect one or more multicell clusters/line
segments to move across eastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia through the afternoon and early evening. While mid-level
lapse rates are quite weak (~ 6 C/km), expect storms to have some
hail threat given the expected storm organization in a very unstable
environment. Low-level flow will be a limiting factor to wind
damage, but internal thermodynamic processes in the hot and unstable
airmass will support downdrafts that will be capable of damaging
winds.
----. This will be a wake county specialWell, there goes my shot at getting a storm at the house.
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The southern end is wasting its time lol. Looks like I'll be in a meeting when this rolls through
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Thundering at the office in north Raleigh.
And here we gooooo......
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NCC069-083-127-181-185-072000-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0171.190807T1840Z-190807T2000Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Nash County in central North Carolina...
Warren County in central North Carolina...
Southeastern Vance County in central North Carolina...
Halifax County in central North Carolina...
Franklin County in central North Carolina...
* Until 400 PM EDT
* At 239 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Littleton to 12 miles south of Warrenton to
Franklinton, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Louisburg, Warrenton, Halifax,
Franklinton, Dortches, Littleton, Kittrell and Red Oak.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NCC069-083-127-181-185-072000-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0171.190807T1840Z-190807T2000Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Nash County in central North Carolina...
Warren County in central North Carolina...
Southeastern Vance County in central North Carolina...
Halifax County in central North Carolina...
Franklin County in central North Carolina...
* Until 400 PM EDT
* At 239 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Littleton to 12 miles south of Warrenton to
Franklinton, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Louisburg, Warrenton, Halifax,
Franklinton, Dortches, Littleton, Kittrell and Red Oak.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Heavy rain here.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Storm came through pretty fast. Wonder if that's it until later on, and if the second round comes will it be stronger.
Not seeing what people are talking about this second round? No model support really
Missed again. Not sure why I expect anything different
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