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Pattern Ablazing August

SouthGarnerSleet said:
I know it's beating a dead horse... this is from the AFD this morning from Raleigh NWS

"E NC will see even lower convection potential,
protected by even warmer mid levels closer to the heart of the W
Atlantic ridge. Will trend pops up to scattered in the far NW,
trending to isolated storms closer to Hwy 1 with little to no
activity expected E of Hwy 1"

Yet, areas E of US1 are the only ones who have seen storms today.... smh
Click to expand...
When we hug the HrrrRrRR, the forecast generator runs in low quality mode.
 
metwannabe said:
Looking juicy, especially out west with upslope enhanced precip rates

View attachment 87877
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72 hours from the FL panhandle to DC that's problematic. Even at 216 we would still have some effects. I would guess that the precip totals are too low along and east of 95 given the potential for banded convection in a high pwat atmosphere.
 
NAM sucks! Missed this878D9D17-A81D-423E-9A66-48DE054020BE.png
 
Looks like medium to long range is very interesting weather wise around here … almost looks like a massive Gyre of moisture and storm activity enters the Caribbean and gulf regions… multiple spin ups could easily happen close to home but pin pointing exactly where they form and how they approach us is still beyond our capabilities .. it almost looks as if our storm chances and daily pop up storms could end up going from east to west with how the flow sets up .. very odd but it happens sometimes
 
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