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Pattern Ablazing August

Assuming the forecast verifies pretty well, which is highly likely this close based on GEFS PNA forecasts having done quite well, the upcoming +PNA peak would be highly anomalous though not really all that extraordinary because ASO strongly + peaks occur much more often for some reason than during other months as you'll see below. And that's nothing new. I'd love to know the reason!

The GEFS is suggesting a high chance at a peak of 2.8+ in early Aug. Since 1950, there have been only 6 peaks of 2.8+:

- 3.397 09/24/08

- 3.328 07/02/82

- 3.160 08/01/09

- 3.142 09/28/79

- 3.112 09/30/59

- 2.965 09/26/02

So, the last one was 12 years ago. Note that all 6 occurred during JAS meaning the upcoming early Aug peak fits in fairly well with this climo. Interestingly though, 4 of the 6 were within the tiny interval of the last week of Sep!



Since 1950, there have been this many peaks by month of 2+ adding to a total of 59 peaks or ~once per year:

Jan 0

Feb 2

Mar 0

Apr 2

May 2

Jun 7

Jul 7

Aug 12

Sep 16

Oct 10

Nov 1

Dec 0



So, since 1950, there were only 7 peaks of 2+ during Nov-May or once every 10 years with the highest being only 2.353! Only 2 of the 72 DJFs had one and they were both in very late Feb: 2/29/68 and 2/28/83. OTOH, a whopping 38 of the 59 (~2/3) occurred during ASO with all 10 in Oct during Oct 1-12!

Source for daily PNA: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

7/29/21 GEFS PNA forecast:
PNAgefs072921.gif

Edit: It may be a coincidence, but note that the strong +PNA frequency peaks with the peak of SSTs.
 
Last edited:
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah they’re starting to come down to earth now … the morning looks like crapvection though and then some thunderstorms get going later but develop around me and you then move SE .. it’s screaming bust potential for me
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Little bit different given we are in summer with a LLJ with summer thermodynamics vs spring, that early morning stuff might set down a boundary somewhere 8C1BAEF5-CE22-47E7-B5DC-6800752BC842.pngEBA68DB4-6861-4377-86C5-D62B59272722.png
 
3k has Mlcapes around 3500 and dcape around 1500 the wind threat Sunday afternoon is quite high. Given that we are likely to see organization into line segments if not a full on qlcs type look we are probably going to see a high number of wind reports
 
SD said:
3k has Mlcapes around 3500 and dcape around 1500 the wind threat Sunday afternoon is quite high. Given that we are likely to see organization into line segments if not a full on qlcs type look we are probably going to see a high number of wind reports
Click to expand...
Solid-impressive for august standards 8D0674C8-3442-46CB-A7BA-D47ACD00915A.png
 
GaWx said:
Assuming the forecast verifies pretty well, which is highly likely this close based on GEFS PNA forecasts having done quite well, the upcoming +PNA peak would be highly anomalous though not really all that extraordinary because ASO strongly + peaks occur much more often for some reason than during other months as you'll see below. And that's nothing new. I'd love to know the reason!

The GEFS is suggesting a high chance at a peak of 2.8+ in early Aug. Since 1950, there have been only 6 peaks of 2.8+:

- 3.397 09/24/08

- 3.328 07/02/82

- 3.160 08/01/09

- 3.142 09/28/79

- 3.112 09/30/59

- 2.965 09/26/02

So, the last one was 12 years ago. Note that all 6 occurred during JAS meaning the upcoming early Aug peak fits in fairly well with this climo. Interestingly though, 4 of the 6 were within the tiny interval of the last week of Sep!



Since 1950, there have been this many peaks by month of 2+ adding to a total of 59 peaks or ~once per year:

Jan 0

Feb 2

Mar 0

Apr 2

May 2

Jun 7

Jul 7

Aug 12

Sep 16

Oct 10

Nov 1

Dec 0



So, since 1950, there were only 7 peaks of 2+ during Nov-May or once every 10 years with the highest being only 2.353! Only 2 of the 72 DJFs had one and they were both in very late Feb: 2/29/68 and 2/28/83. OTOH, a whopping 38 of the 59 (~2/3) occurred during ASO with all 10 in Oct during Oct 1-12!

Source for daily PNA: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

7/29/21 GEFS PNA forecast:
View attachment 87426

Edit: It may be a coincidence, but note that the strong +PNA frequency peaks with the peak of SSTs.
Click to expand...

Followup: here’s today’s GEFS PNA forecast, which is very similarly suggesting a near +3 within the first few days of August:

D8EB1AA9-AE31-4873-B06C-90500113F617.jpeg
 
Nam still wants to spirt out a few supercells on Sunday .. still tho I’m quite skeptical we get this lucky but never say never I guess .. also longer range NAM looked a bit bet from 60-84 so that was nice to see59600D60-6157-413B-A788-7D5AA686E2AC.png
 
Downeastnc said:
View attachment 87483
Click to expand...
Think this could be expanded a bit more west if the NAM is correct .. continues to show supercells cranking from around Raleigh Charlotte south and East … latest king range HRRR showed more coverage but is still a mainly i-95 east type of deal and some action along the SC/NC border past Charlotte .. we will see
 
Tornadocane said:
I had no idea there was an uncontrollable drought in NC. It's as bad as ya'll are saying. The US Drought Monitor painted 17% of the state in yellow, indicating that people in the area should start collecting urine and converting it into drinkable water.

View attachment 87491
Click to expand...
Hahahaha yes definitely just a tease from me.. some people believe we are in some crazy drought but reality states otherwise.. I like this idea of urine collection though that may help our western NC folks
 
Short Range HRRR No dice=FAIL,, One lone T-Storm, (On the beach)..
 
SD said:
Yep hrrr has the disturbance by pretty early and the sfc trough is here by around 18z. US1 will likely be the initiation point but if things keep speeding up we likely miss out tomorrow and it's 95 and east
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Nam 3km 18z finally agrees .. we will be on the initiation point .. beat.. but it’s also showing a large scale rain in a few days that will almost guarantee temps stay in the 70s and maybe 60s depending on how lucky we get .. this will be welcomed 10 fold
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Nam 3km 18z finally agrees .. we will be on the initiation point .. beat.. but it’s also showing a large scale rain in a few days that will almost guarantee temps stay in the 70s and maybe 60s depending on how lucky we get .. this will be welcomed 10 fold
Click to expand...
Tuesday looks like a nice break from the heat maybe Wednesday as well if we get lucky
 
SD said:
Tuesday looks like a nice break from the heat maybe Wednesday as well if we get lucky
Click to expand...
Yup, from Tuesday on, low to mid-80s...maybe even some 70s. Monday may even stop short of 90. High rain chances each day. Hard to really dislike this summer so far. And, we can go ahead and knock out the first week of August. That leaves about 5 more weeks of potential big heat to happen...and right now that doesn't look likely. A+ summer so far!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Hahahaha yes definitely just a tease from me.. some people believe we are in some crazy drought but reality states otherwise.. I like this idea of urine collection though that may help our western NC folks
Click to expand...

Yeah... you definitely had me going. I haven't been paying attention to many US weather events other the Monsoon Rains in the SW.

I'm thinking drought? That's pretty bold. I'm not sure I believe in a serious NC drought, but let me check out this dudes complaint.

And if you like the idea of urine collection, let's take this to next level. I'm think we start charity taking in urine donations (samples?) for thirsty people of Asheville. We'll call our organization the 'Yellow Cross'.
 
GSP has really come down on on highs here this week. 76 on Tuesday, 80 Wednesday, and 77 Thursday… that’s a solid 10-15 below normal. Definitely not something you see in the first week of August too often
 
Chazwin said:
GSP has really come down on on highs here this week. 76 on Tuesday, 80 Wednesday, and 77 Thursday… that’s a solid 10-15 below normal. Definitely not something you see in the first week of August too often
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Yeah , models seem to want to warm it back up towards normal by end of the week though, maybe even hot again as plains heat builds back up. Random unseasonably cool days has been the theme this year since April.
 
Lickwx said:
Yeah , models seem to want to warm it back up towards normal by end of the week though, maybe even hot again as plains heat builds back up. Random unseasonably cool days has been the theme this year since April.
Click to expand...

Last year too.


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Yeah, 100*F isn't going to happen today. Convective debris and an outflow boundary are hauling ass towards the Metroplex.
 
Full on air you can wear outside this morning, no clouds, strong sun, timing of storms is perfect mid to late afternoon....

MHX update this AM says we look to be primed for some nasty storms later.....

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 925 AM Sunday...Sct to bkn convection conts from central
OBX south to off the srn coast with another cluster near the VA
border. Appears bulk of the region will see limited precip thru
the morn with sct to numerous shra/tsra developing this aftn
during max heating. Still looks like decent potential for some
severe convection with moderate shear ahead of upr trf. High res
guidance suggests init strong convection will develop nrn tier
then spread S thru late aftn/early evening poss merging to a
band driven by outflow.
 
Downeastnc said:
Full on air you can wear outside this morning, no clouds, strong sun, timing of storms is perfect mid to late afternoon....

MHX update this AM says we look to be primed for some nasty storms later.....

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 925 AM Sunday...Sct to bkn convection conts from central
OBX south to off the srn coast with another cluster near the VA
border. Appears bulk of the region will see limited precip thru
the morn with sct to numerous shra/tsra developing this aftn
during max heating. Still looks like decent potential for some
severe convection with moderate shear ahead of upr trf. High res
guidance suggests init strong convection will develop nrn tier
then spread S thru late aftn/early evening poss merging to a
band driven by outflow.
Click to expand...
At least the sun is getting much lower now that we are in August. Fall is just 30 days away !
 
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