Pattern Ablazing August

[NickyBGuarantee]

Decent training and a solid pivot point = some localized big time totals tomorrow .. HRRR has wanted it to be somewhere in central NC .. but we all know exact location won’t be known until we nowcast .. regardless someone is seeing a flash flood warning

 

[LickWx]

Decent training and a solid pivot point = some localized big time totals tomorrow .. HRRR has wanted it to be somewhere in central NC .. but we all know exact location won’t be known until we nowcast .. regardless someone is seeing a flash flood warningView attachment 87708

That precip max looks perfectly placed over Jordan lake and apex ... don’t tell @Avalanche

 

[weatherfide]

So far, August is not ablazing.

 

[Metwannabe]

Dang Rah NWS going all in on tomorrow (this was from the morning update)

Rainfall totals for late tonight and Saturday will also likely need
a (possibly significant) upward adjustment with the afternoon
forecast package, with a narrow swath of 2-3" probable, locally
around 4", along and on the immediate cool side of the retreating
coastal front and frontal wave during that time.

 

[Metwannabe]

HRRR has some 3-4 inch totals NW piedmont (don't show @smast16 though)

 

[Rain Cold]

HRRR has some 3-4 inch totals NW piedmont (don't show @smast16 though)

View attachment 87728

Going to be in Burlington tomorrow woo hoo

 

[JHS]

HRRR has some 3-4 inch totals NW piedmont (don't show @smast16 though)

View attachment 87728

Mostly a big miss back west. I can not imagine that little blob off by itself in upstate SC being right because i would get around 4 inches of rain if it was. The band from CLT and northeast is probably legit though.

 

[Bannerdude]

2" radar estimates east of Chapel Hill near Jordan Lake already and its been pouring here too. Jordan Lake sink zone cancel.

 

[Shaggy]

No surprise here but its pouring in Pitt County again

 

[Shaggy]

Flood advisory now up as 1-3 have already fallen and an additional 1-2 more is possible. Looks like that 0z run of the hrrr that had widespread 2-4 with a 5.5 inch lollipop over the county was pretty spot on.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

2" radar estimates east of Chapel Hill near Jordan Lake already and its been pouring here too. Jordan Lake sink zone cancel.

View attachment 87736

And this is before all the rain coming tonight and tomorrow .. there will be flash flooding I believe for some areas in the next 24 hours

 

[Shaggy]

Heaviest totals missed the airport and official station again. This area of southern Pitt just southeast of my house has been getting crushed this summer. Pgv is a surplus of +15 and this area is several inches ahead of that. Just crazy how much rain we've been getting.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

My area aka the rain forest

 

[Rain Cold]

Not confidence-inspiring.

 

[LickWx]

My area aka the rain forest View attachment 87741

Any lightning yet or just plain rain so far ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Any lightning yet or just plain rain so far ?

Just rain but the short range models don’t show any real/more robust convection until 3am and past that

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Someone is getting a flash flood that’s for sure … I can’t wait to see the radar blossom and hear the heavy rain falling outside my window and if we’re really lucky we can maybe stay in the 70s tomorrow.. i dont know about The whole severe threat I would assume a severe gusts will be very few and far between

 

[LickWx]

Just rain but the short range models don’t show any real/more robust convection until 3am and past that

Gl you staying up or waking up early ?

 

[JHS]

The same places over and over with the rain. We need rain west of I-77, not EAST of there again. Central and eastern NC has had enough.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gl you staying up or waking up early ?

Gonna be Waking up early