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Pattern Ablazing August

SD said:
Eh the nam is coming back toward the rest of the models tbh. I'd still put high rain chances late Friday through Saturday.

I'd much rather have today's weather on Saturday
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I honestly gave up on trusting model rain outputs anymore. As long as Saturday is not like yesterday I’ll be ok. Does maxar track precipitation bias ? @GaWx
 
SD said:
Yeah if we get a moisture plume like the Nam and euro have we should have a decent amount of convection and rain. Have to watch how far NW the higher dews get but we could offset lower dews with a sfc low and reasonably strong trough
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Yeah, it looks that way now. However, this summer has been an I95 East deluge so I am certainly not counting on it. I'm starting to trust the models in the summer about as much as I do in the winter, lol.
 
That setup the nam shows isn’t quite far off from we had last weekend it seems, for rain and thunderstorms
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Good gosh. I was looking back at the last two severe seasons across the southeast. And I forgot all about the almost 2 1/2 mile ef4 that hit soso Mississippi. And the talk on how it could have been rated a ef5. Yeesh. I thought the El Reno ef5 was in its own class on how big it was

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Myfrotho704_ said:
That setup the nam shows isn’t quite far off from we had last weekend it seems, for rain and thunderstorms
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Yeah Saturday honestly looks to have a fairly decent shot at being more of a washout than any other day this week has been .. at least for people west of I-95. And the orientation of the low makes it seem like this isn’t a mirage like the past couple days were .. I want something exciting like some close encounter lightning strikes or something ??‍♂️
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah Saturday honestly looks to have a fairly decent shot at being more of a washout than any other day this week has been .. at least for people west of I-95. And the orientation of the low makes it seem like this isn’t a mirage like the past couple days were .. I want something exciting like some close encounter lightning strikes or something ??‍♂️
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I’m ready for fall severe weather season … ready for a good tornado chase .
 
Even well after the rain there was still.flooding over the road at noon and we really missed the bigger totals and underperformed quite a bit. We've just had so much rain there's nowhere for it to go
 

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Avalanche said:
Absolutely zero continental blue. Cold source regions be warm.
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I’ve actually been following the source regions very closely lately and those areas are actually having the coolest summer since 2013. Nothing like the consistent record warmth they’ve seen the last several years… they should start building up cold air much sooner than they have lately
 
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