You and I both overdue for a good one.Probably cuz we waste it on onset ice or dry air to much and not snow
You and I both overdue for a good one.Probably cuz we waste it on onset ice or dry air to much and not snow
Fairbanks set a new record warmest mean temp yesterday with an 89/64 temp combo I believe. Not sure if that's daily only though.I’ve actually been following the source regions very closely lately and those areas are actually having the coolest summer since 2013. Nothing like the consistent record warmth they’ve seen the last several years… they should start building up cold air much sooner than they have lately
I’m talking more about the north slope and over into the northern Yukon… those areas the last several years were actually seeing record warmth as well…. This year has been quite coolFairbanks set a new record warmest mean temp yesterday with an 89/64 temp combo I believe. Not sure if that's daily only though.
Yup. It hasn't been nearly as good since they messed with it a couple years back.Lol Nam comes back to earthView attachment 87614
These days, we need a full global ridge over the top pulling down air from the Antarctic.Western ridges just don’t bring cold like they use to View attachment 87620
We takeThese days, we need a full global ridge over the top pulling down air from the Antarctic.
I hope you're right about the correlation of our winters based on those regions. I've given up on the early Siberian/Yakutsk cold train.I’ve actually been following the source regions very closely lately and those areas are actually having the coolest summer since 2013. Nothing like the consistent record warmth they’ve seen the last several years… they should start building up cold air much sooner than they have lately
We most certainly do.We take
You're good, I can't tell the difference between any of the threads anymoreCrap I thought I was in the summer whamby thread. Mods delete or move if needed.
The thing that is often forgotten when looking at patterns and set ups for winter weather is that for every time that particular set up produced there was probably 10 times or more that it didn’t… we do live in the south after all. Keep in mind that this snow drought that we are in right now was preceded by some pretty good years and individual storms for a lot of us, and it’s definitely not the worst many of us has seen in the past… CLT went from December 1989 to March 1993 without recording anything more than trace of snow, and there simply was just not that many opportunities for it as well. As far the correlation on the summer temps in the cold air source regions… I’m simply trying to see if cold air can build up quicker this year without have record warmth there most of the summer. The fact is the cold air didn’t get built up until very late in the fall last year, and that was to me what ultimately ruined winter weather chances in the first half of met winter… if the cold had built up sooner to go along with the pattern that was predominant over that 6-7 weeks, I think most of the southeast from I-20 corridor north would have had at least one decent storm.I hope you're right about the correlation of our winters based on those regions. I've given up on the early Siberian/Yakutsk cold train.
Heck, I'm seeing things like Brick now. "It just doesn't work like it use to." I'll give it one, maybe two more years then I'm throwing my hands up at patterns. Interior mountains of Maine will be my new spot to ensure I see snow........while they can still get it.
Some sarcasm there yes, but halfway serious at this point.
The thing that is often forgotten when looking at patterns and set ups for winter weather is that for every time that particular set up produced there was probably 10 times or more that it didn’t… we do live in the south after all. Keep in mind that this snow drought that we are in right now was preceded by some pretty good years and individual storms for a lot of us, and it’s definitely not the worst many of us has seen in the past… CLT went from December 1989 to March 1993 without recording anything more than trace of snow, and there simply was just not that many opportunities for it as well. As far the correlation on the summer temps in the cold air source regions… I’m simply trying to see if cold air can build up quicker this year without have record warmth there most of the summer. The fact is the cold air didn’t get built up until very late in the fall last year, and that was to me what ultimately ruined winter weather chances in the first half of met winter… if the cold had built up sooner to go along with the pattern that was predominant over that 6-7 weeks, I think most of the southeast from I-20 corridor north would have had at least one decent storm.
Luckily for our benefit here .. average summer heat turns slightly below average ??? I’ll take a bon existent ridge out East for the heart of summer
I'm interested in what's going on after the 15th eps continues to show us cooling into the mid 80s on the mean there are some really cool members there too. Next week looks like a snoozer no evidence it can get really hot and not much to keep it cool zzzzLuckily for our benefit here .. average summer heat turns slightly below average ??? I’ll take a bon existent ridge out East for the heart of summer
Yeah next week looks about as average temp-wise as you can get. It certainly wouldn’t be unheard of to see a cool shot after the 15th… I think we CLT got down into the upper 50s a couple times last year in late August or first week of SeptemberI'm interested in what's going on after the 15th eps continues to show us cooling into the mid 80s on the mean there are some really cool members there too. Next week looks like a snoozer no evidence it can get really hot and not much to keep it cool zzzz
That makes me feel better that this has happened before and chances are good Charlotte's going to get something this year.The thing that is often forgotten when looking at patterns and set ups for winter weather is that for every time that particular set up produced there was probably 10 times or more that it didn’t… we do live in the south after all. Keep in mind that this snow drought that we are in right now was preceded by some pretty good years and individual storms for a lot of us, and it’s definitely not the worst many of us has seen in the past… CLT went from December 1989 to March 1993 without recording anything more than trace of snow, and there simply was just not that many opportunities for it as well. As far the correlation on the summer temps in the cold air source regions… I’m simply trying to see if cold air can build up quicker this year without have record warmth there most of the summer. The fact is the cold air didn’t get built up until very late in the fall last year, and that was to me what ultimately ruined winter weather chances in the first half of met winter… if the cold had built up sooner to go along with the pattern that was predominant over that 6-7 weeks, I think most of the southeast from I-20 corridor north would have had at least one decent storm.
For NC maybe. But in TN it will be brutally hot.Yeah next week looks about as average temp-wise as you can get. It certainly wouldn’t be unheard of to see a cool shot after the 15th… I think we CLT got down into the upper 50s a couple times last year in late March
I checked Nashville and the averages there next week are still around around 70 for lows and 90 for highs… right now their highest is forecasted to be 93 Monday and then 88-90 after that so still pretty much average.For NC maybe. But in TN it will be brutally hot.
Chattanooga could hit 95I checked Nashville and the averages there next week are still around around 70 for lows and 90 for highs… right now their highest is forecasted to be 93 Monday and then 88-90 after that so still pretty much average.
Yeah… history says that CLT has never gone snowless an entire winter and it has never gone more than two consecutive winters without having at least one 1”+ snowfall….’90-‘91, ‘91-‘92 and now ‘19-20, ‘20-‘21 are the two most recent times that it has happened two consecutive years. ‘92-‘93 very nearly made it 3 winters in a row, but the airport got 2 inches from the March 1993 superstorm.That makes me feel better that this has happened before and chances are good Charlotte's going to get something this year.
The 12z euro was a widespread 1-2
View attachment 87629
Something tells me the euro is too widespread and it ends up as just a couple rounds of scattered storms. We will seeAhhh. There it is. Heading to upslope city on Friday - weekend
Leaning on the euro but he’s still hedging per usual
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah I said a couple months ago that I just don’t put a lot of stock in modeled rainfall amount maps during the summer because so much of our rainfall from June-August is convection based. Unless it’s coming from a TC I just assume the rainfall will be scatteredSomething tells me the euro is too widespread and it ends up as just a couple rounds of scattered storms. We will see
Its def something to watch. I use to think early Khatanga and Siberian snowfall would lead to colder opportunities, though it seems hit and miss. Oddly enough, I never have paid attention to NW North America, which is probably more relevant to us in the SE. So I will join you at oberving those come mid to late October.The thing that is often forgotten when looking at patterns and set ups for winter weather is that for every time that particular set up produced there was probably 10 times or more that it didn’t… we do live in the south after all. Keep in mind that this snow drought that we are in right now was preceded by some pretty good years and individual storms for a lot of us, and it’s definitely not the worst many of us has seen in the past… CLT went from December 1989 to March 1993 without recording anything more than trace of snow, and there simply was just not that many opportunities for it as well. As far the correlation on the summer temps in the cold air source regions… I’m simply trying to see if cold air can build up quicker this year without have record warmth there most of the summer. The fact is the cold air didn’t get built up until very late in the fall last year, and that was to me what ultimately ruined winter weather chances in the first half of met winter… if the cold had built up sooner to go along with the pattern that was predominant over that 6-7 weeks, I think most of the southeast from I-20 corridor north would have had at least one decent storm.
Yeah I’m not saying that the Siberian cold isn’t important, but to tap into it you gotta have a cross polar flow. I think that’s a bigger deal for areas south of the I-20 corridor. For us in northern SC,and all of NC it’s very doable for us to get winter storms with a cold air mass that’s has an origin in North America…. Whether that be through a high pressure dropping out of NW Canada or a CAD, provided that you have just enough blocking or absolutely perfect timing. We definitely had the blocking during the first half of last winter and even though the PNA was only around neutral during that time, it would have been good enough to deliver cold enough air.. the problem of course is that the source regions just took too much time to build cold after coming out of record warmthIts def something to watch. I use to think early Khatanga and Siberian snowfall would lead to colder opportunities, though it seems hit and miss. Oddly enough, I never have paid attention to NW North America, which is probably more relevant to us in the SE. So I will join you at oberving those come mid to late October.
Warming up for winter. Can't get an easy summer pattern right, it ain't got no shot in winter.