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Pattern Ablazing August

Chazwin said:
I’ve actually been following the source regions very closely lately and those areas are actually having the coolest summer since 2013. Nothing like the consistent record warmth they’ve seen the last several years… they should start building up cold air much sooner than they have lately
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Fairbanks set a new record warmest mean temp yesterday with an 89/64 temp combo I believe. Not sure if that's daily only though.
 
Lickwx said:
Fairbanks set a new record warmest mean temp yesterday with an 89/64 temp combo I believe. Not sure if that's daily only though.
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I’m talking more about the north slope and over into the northern Yukon… those areas the last several years were actually seeing record warmth as well…. This year has been quite cool
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve actually been following the source regions very closely lately and those areas are actually having the coolest summer since 2013. Nothing like the consistent record warmth they’ve seen the last several years… they should start building up cold air much sooner than they have lately
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I hope you're right about the correlation of our winters based on those regions. I've given up on the early Siberian/Yakutsk cold train.

Heck, I'm seeing things like Brick now. "It just doesn't work like it use to." I'll give it one, maybe two more years then I'm throwing my hands up at patterns. Interior mountains of Maine will be my new spot to ensure I see snow........while they can still get it.

Some sarcasm there yes, but halfway serious at this point.
 
Avalanche said:
I hope you're right about the correlation of our winters based on those regions. I've given up on the early Siberian/Yakutsk cold train.

Heck, I'm seeing things like Brick now. "It just doesn't work like it use to." I'll give it one, maybe two more years then I'm throwing my hands up at patterns. Interior mountains of Maine will be my new spot to ensure I see snow........while they can still get it.

Some sarcasm there yes, but halfway serious at this point.
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The thing that is often forgotten when looking at patterns and set ups for winter weather is that for every time that particular set up produced there was probably 10 times or more that it didn’t… we do live in the south after all. Keep in mind that this snow drought that we are in right now was preceded by some pretty good years and individual storms for a lot of us, and it’s definitely not the worst many of us has seen in the past… CLT went from December 1989 to March 1993 without recording anything more than trace of snow, and there simply was just not that many opportunities for it as well. As far the correlation on the summer temps in the cold air source regions… I’m simply trying to see if cold air can build up quicker this year without have record warmth there most of the summer. The fact is the cold air didn’t get built up until very late in the fall last year, and that was to me what ultimately ruined winter weather chances in the first half of met winter… if the cold had built up sooner to go along with the pattern that was predominant over that 6-7 weeks, I think most of the southeast from I-20 corridor north would have had at least one decent storm.
 
Chazwin said:
The thing that is often forgotten when looking at patterns and set ups for winter weather is that for every time that particular set up produced there was probably 10 times or more that it didn’t… we do live in the south after all. Keep in mind that this snow drought that we are in right now was preceded by some pretty good years and individual storms for a lot of us, and it’s definitely not the worst many of us has seen in the past… CLT went from December 1989 to March 1993 without recording anything more than trace of snow, and there simply was just not that many opportunities for it as well. As far the correlation on the summer temps in the cold air source regions… I’m simply trying to see if cold air can build up quicker this year without have record warmth there most of the summer. The fact is the cold air didn’t get built up until very late in the fall last year, and that was to me what ultimately ruined winter weather chances in the first half of met winter… if the cold had built up sooner to go along with the pattern that was predominant over that 6-7 weeks, I think most of the southeast from I-20 corridor north would have had at least one decent storm.
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The rapidly warming Arctic isn't going to be good for winter regardless.


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Not SE weather, but have headed west on a trip. Flew into Reno and headed to Tahoe … temps there were great highs upper 70s lows upper 40s or so. Currently I am In Yosemite Valley. Current high reading per NWS is 101, DP can’t be much more than 30 or so. Still hot … low will drop to low 60s upper 50s.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Luckily for our benefit here .. average summer heat turns slightly below average ??? I’ll take a bon existent ridge out East for the heart of summer
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I'm interested in what's going on after the 15th eps continues to show us cooling into the mid 80s on the mean there are some really cool members there too. Next week looks like a snoozer no evidence it can get really hot and not much to keep it cool zzzz
 
SD said:
I'm interested in what's going on after the 15th eps continues to show us cooling into the mid 80s on the mean there are some really cool members there too. Next week looks like a snoozer no evidence it can get really hot and not much to keep it cool zzzz
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Yeah next week looks about as average temp-wise as you can get. It certainly wouldn’t be unheard of to see a cool shot after the 15th… I think we CLT got down into the upper 50s a couple times last year in late August or first week of September
 
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Chazwin said:
The thing that is often forgotten when looking at patterns and set ups for winter weather is that for every time that particular set up produced there was probably 10 times or more that it didn’t… we do live in the south after all. Keep in mind that this snow drought that we are in right now was preceded by some pretty good years and individual storms for a lot of us, and it’s definitely not the worst many of us has seen in the past… CLT went from December 1989 to March 1993 without recording anything more than trace of snow, and there simply was just not that many opportunities for it as well. As far the correlation on the summer temps in the cold air source regions… I’m simply trying to see if cold air can build up quicker this year without have record warmth there most of the summer. The fact is the cold air didn’t get built up until very late in the fall last year, and that was to me what ultimately ruined winter weather chances in the first half of met winter… if the cold had built up sooner to go along with the pattern that was predominant over that 6-7 weeks, I think most of the southeast from I-20 corridor north would have had at least one decent storm.
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That makes me feel better that this has happened before and chances are good Charlotte's going to get something this year.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
For NC maybe. But in TN it will be brutally hot.
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I checked Nashville and the averages there next week are still around around 70 for lows and 90 for highs… right now their highest is forecasted to be 93 Monday and then 88-90 after that so still pretty much average.
 
-- in Charlotte Is honking on heavy rain on Saturday. Haven’t checked models … is he using a blend or leaning on one model ?


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Chazwin said:
I checked Nashville and the averages there next week are still around around 70 for lows and 90 for highs… right now their highest is forecasted to be 93 Monday and then 88-90 after that so still pretty much average.
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Chattanooga could hit 95
 
Bham 99 said:
That makes me feel better that this has happened before and chances are good Charlotte's going to get something this year.
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Yeah… history says that CLT has never gone snowless an entire winter and it has never gone more than two consecutive winters without having at least one 1”+ snowfall….’90-‘91, ‘91-‘92 and now ‘19-20, ‘20-‘21 are the two most recent times that it has happened two consecutive years. ‘92-‘93 very nearly made it 3 winters in a row, but the airport got 2 inches from the March 1993 superstorm.
 
SD said:
Something tells me the euro is too widespread and it ends up as just a couple rounds of scattered storms. We will see
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Yeah I said a couple months ago that I just don’t put a lot of stock in modeled rainfall amount maps during the summer because so much of our rainfall from June-August is convection based. Unless it’s coming from a TC I just assume the rainfall will be scattered
 
Chazwin said:
The thing that is often forgotten when looking at patterns and set ups for winter weather is that for every time that particular set up produced there was probably 10 times or more that it didn’t… we do live in the south after all. Keep in mind that this snow drought that we are in right now was preceded by some pretty good years and individual storms for a lot of us, and it’s definitely not the worst many of us has seen in the past… CLT went from December 1989 to March 1993 without recording anything more than trace of snow, and there simply was just not that many opportunities for it as well. As far the correlation on the summer temps in the cold air source regions… I’m simply trying to see if cold air can build up quicker this year without have record warmth there most of the summer. The fact is the cold air didn’t get built up until very late in the fall last year, and that was to me what ultimately ruined winter weather chances in the first half of met winter… if the cold had built up sooner to go along with the pattern that was predominant over that 6-7 weeks, I think most of the southeast from I-20 corridor north would have had at least one decent storm.
Click to expand...
Its def something to watch. I use to think early Khatanga and Siberian snowfall would lead to colder opportunities, though it seems hit and miss. Oddly enough, I never have paid attention to NW North America, which is probably more relevant to us in the SE. So I will join you at oberving those come mid to late October.
 
Avalanche said:
Its def something to watch. I use to think early Khatanga and Siberian snowfall would lead to colder opportunities, though it seems hit and miss. Oddly enough, I never have paid attention to NW North America, which is probably more relevant to us in the SE. So I will join you at oberving those come mid to late October.
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Yeah I’m not saying that the Siberian cold isn’t important, but to tap into it you gotta have a cross polar flow. I think that’s a bigger deal for areas south of the I-20 corridor. For us in northern SC,and all of NC it’s very doable for us to get winter storms with a cold air mass that’s has an origin in North America…. Whether that be through a high pressure dropping out of NW Canada or a CAD, provided that you have just enough blocking or absolutely perfect timing. We definitely had the blocking during the first half of last winter and even though the PNA was only around neutral during that time, it would have been good enough to deliver cold enough air.. the problem of course is that the source regions just took too much time to build cold after coming out of record warmth
 
There have been almost as many posts about fall and winter ITT as the posts actually about August lol. This is the time for bikinis, sand, sun, and treadmills...enjoy!

To make this an August post, here is the Arctic temperature anomaly graph update for today:

meanT_2021.png
 
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