Yikes, and what’s your insight on tomorrow’s threat ? Just wanted to see your thoughts
Yikes, and what’s your insight on tomorrow’s threat ? Just wanted to see your thoughts
Yikes, and what’s your insight on tomorrow’s threat ? Just wanted to see your thoughts
I do not trust the HRRRv3 here whatsoever, strong local mixing schemes in the model tend to scour out CAD way too quickly. Tomorrow is a day that favors elevated convection w/ large hail being basically the only threat.
HRRRv4's depiction of tomorrow is more in line w/ the 3km NAM.
HRRRv3
View attachment 40930
View attachment 40931
The main limiting factor to tomorrow will be MUCAPE, all of which is elevated in NC and upstate SC. The primary forcing(s) for ascent are warm advection and isentropic upglide up & over the CAD dome. This coupled w/ strong, deep layer unidirectional shear and you're gonna get end up w/ a very messy storm mode w/ elevated bases, and of course a large hail threat. I don't envision a realistic scenario where we end up w/ more surface-based CAPE than forecast in a setup like this, low-mid level cloud cover and pre-frontal showers &/or crapvection usually overperforms in these cases.
View attachment 40932
View attachment 40933