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5/4-6 possible severe wx

Is it true that the loss of daytime heating can affect the strength of these things?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yikes, and what’s your insight on tomorrow’s threat ? Just wanted to see your thoughts
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I do not trust the HRRRv3 here whatsoever, strong local mixing schemes in the model tend to scour out CAD way too quickly. Tomorrow is a day that favors elevated convection w/ large hail being basically the only threat.

HRRRv4's depiction of tomorrow is more in line w/ the 3km NAM.

HRRRv3

hrrr_2020-05-04-23Z_016_38.556_274.6_30.556_285.667_Temperature_Surface_highways_cities.png


hrrr4_2020-05-04-23Z_016_38.556_274.6_30.556_285.667_Temperature_Surface_highways_cities.png


The main limiting factor to tomorrow will be MUCAPE, all of which is elevated in NC and upstate SC. The primary forcing(s) for ascent are warm advection and isentropic upglide up & over the CAD dome. This coupled w/ strong, deep layer unidirectional shear and you're gonna get end up w/ a very messy storm mode w/ elevated bases, and of course a large hail threat. I don't envision a realistic scenario where we end up w/ more surface-based CAPE than forecast in a setup like this, low-mid level cloud cover and pre-frontal showers &/or crapvection usually overperforms in these cases.

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The MCS is about to push into Northern Alabama. Hoping that I can at least get some thunder out of it in a few hours. Most models have it going just north of me, but I feels like it’s just a little bit farther south then forecast right now.19CB3908-ED6C-45FD-B2EA-009B42CB9835.png
 
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Not a Tornado warning but does anyone else see the rotation in Tennessee


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Webberweather53 said:
I do not trust the HRRRv3 here whatsoever, strong local mixing schemes in the model tend to scour out CAD way too quickly. Tomorrow is a day that favors elevated convection w/ large hail being basically the only threat.

HRRRv4's depiction of tomorrow is more in line w/ the 3km NAM.

HRRRv3

View attachment 40930


View attachment 40931


The main limiting factor to tomorrow will be MUCAPE, all of which is elevated in NC and upstate SC. The primary forcing(s) for ascent are warm advection and isentropic upglide up & over the CAD dome. This coupled w/ strong, deep layer unidirectional shear and you're gonna get end up w/ a very messy storm mode w/ elevated bases, and of course a large hail threat. I don't envision a realistic scenario where we end up w/ more surface-based CAPE than forecast in a setup like this, low-mid level cloud cover and pre-frontal showers &/or crapvection usually overperforms in these cases.

View attachment 40932


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Yeah those elevated storms on the V4 look like no joke, quickly clutters up tho 1F21A663-5159-493B-AC50-890E145FF9AF.png
 
No hail or wind here, but got a lot of rain. Have not looked at the gauge yet but I'm thinking at least 2 inches of rain fall here tonight and more may be on the way from Spartanburg county. Had a storm with a ton of lightning go by just to my north with at least 40 flashes per minute for about 10 minutes.
 
Storms starting to form just a few miles south of Charlotte. We'll see if they can develop into something. Just heard some thunder.
 
Like clockwork...

Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1114 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

NCZ071-082-050345-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1114 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

At 1113 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Indian Land, or near Weddington, moving east at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, South Charlotte, Matthews, Indian Trail, Weddington,
Stallings, Pineville, Wesley Chapel, Lake Park and Hemby Bridge.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8081 3509 8091 3520 8055 3497 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 259DEG 17KT 3505 8076

$$

MOORE
 
It must be nice not to live in a climate that gets storms instead of one draped under oceanic NE winds. Temps dropping like a rock as winds blow in from the NE. Already down the to mid-50s at RDU. Looking forward to drizzle. What's with storms this year, eastern NC is the hotspot for storms in this state, but instead, it has become a 50-degree drizzle fest last couple of months. I thought CAD would theoretically be strongest in places by the mountains like Greenville but honestly seems strongest 150 miles away from the mountains in Raleigh.

33-60 degree drizzle is the weather equivalent of a 55-year-old man's erectile dysfunction.. it is the erectile dysfunction of weather.
 
Lickwx said:
It must be nice not to live in a climate that gets storms instead of one draped under oceanic NE winds. Temps dropping like a rock as winds blow in from the NE. Already down the to mid-50s at RDU. Looking forward to drizzle. What's with storms this year, eastern NC is the hotspot for storms in this state, but instead, it has become a 50-degree drizzle fest last couple of months. I thought CAD would theoretically be strongest in places by the mountains like Greenville but honestly seems strongest 150 miles away from the mountains in Raleigh.st

33-60 degree drizzle is the weather equivalent of a 55-year-old man's erectile dysfunction.. it is the erectile dysfunction of weather.
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LOL. That last sentence had me going! Never underestimate the Southern Piedmont as a storm hotspot though. It's that Lee trough and the fact we tend to tether boundaries more often than places to the NE.
 
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That activity in north Georgia blossoming well even at this time of night


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These returns showing up on the hrrr tomorrow just let’s you know these things could have huge hail, even the hrrrv4 which keeps things elevated basically shows the same 628F16C2-CCDF-4CB1-BF99-FEF9530C3482.png
 
Holy rain, wind, and thunder Batman
I didn’t even know things were going to get fun here in Columbia. Last 30 minutes have been active to say the least but it’s over now
Heading to work in an hour fully expect to see a downed tree as I leave my neighborhood
 
Gotta admit, my intuition last night wrt 3km NAM being right for today's setup and the convection being completely elevated might end up being dead wrong.

6z 3km NAM is too cold even vs 11z sfc obs, we're verifying much closer to the HRRR.

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overnight one of the worst thunderstorms I've experienced living in Upstate SC (off/on since 2003) - intense lightning and high straight-line winds (at one time I thought tornadic) - our portable basketball goal was picked up/pushed smashing our Toyota Sienna
oddly, we've seen numerous severe storms/even tornadoes this spring - reminds of the days when I lived in Birmingham/Tuscaloosa Alabama!
 
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