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Severe 4/4-4/6 Severe Threat

Based on the swath of wind reports (right now extending from just south of Dallas to Monroe, LA) last night's squall line meets the distance criteria for a derecho.

However, I'm not seeing any high wind reports (75+ MPH gusts) within that swath, the other criteria.
 
Seems like it’s moving faster than modeled? Wasn’t supposed to start raining here til noon and it’s pouring now
 
Very nasty storm south of Montgomery with a strong rotation
 
Not much is blocking inflow from the south. This could be an intense tornado developing SE of Fort Deposit.
 
Both cells have impressive couplets south one has wide open inflow. Screenshot_20220405-102736.png
 
mcd0406.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern/central GA and the FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 051515Z - 051715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for several tornadoes and numerous damaging winds
will spread eastward this afternoon. Some of the tornadoes could be
strong. Tornado Watch issuance will be needed.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing complex with a history of producing
damaging winds and embedded tornadoes is moving eastward across
southern AL this morning. A couple of low-topped supercells are also
present ahead of the line. Recent visible satellite trends show a
fair amount of mid and high-level cloudiness downstream of this
activity across much of GA and parts of the FL Panhandle. Even so,
the airmass across this region is expected to destabilize enough to
support surface-based storms this afternoon. 15Z surface
observations show temperatures rising into the upper 60s and 70s,
with dewpoints gradually increasing into the 60s. MLCAPE should
increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range as this occurs, even though
mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly modest.

A 40-50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will spread eastward
over GA this afternoon. A strongly veering and strengthening wind
profile with height through mid levels will likely support updraft
rotation both within the line and with any cells that can remain
discrete ahead of it. Given the enhanced low-level shear, a threat
for tornadoes will likely exist, especially with any supercells that
can remain at least semi-discrete. A strong tornado will remain a
possibility with favorably enhanced low-level hodographs. The bowing
line of convection should also remain capable of producing numerous
damaging winds. Based on recent radar trends, Tornado Watch issuance
across parts of southern/central GA and vicinity appears
increasingly likely by 16-17Z (12-1 PM EDT).
 
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