spc has outlined a D4 outlook in western parts of the region. Farther east moisture return becomes a question
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Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How does it look our way?
Doesn’t look favorable for my backyard similar to past several events. Good news for most in NC/VA.
Psalm 148:8
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We still on page 1. Hoping that means this is a non event for the southeast!
Sounding in NC on the LR NAM (can’t be trusted) kinda getting over high shear setups
It’s contaminated but I couldnt get a clear one
Looking at globals the idea of a low topped QLCS isn’t crazy, although a rain shield with embedded thunder seems more likely
It’s contaminated but I couldnt get a clear one
Looking at globals the idea of a low topped QLCS isn’t crazy, although a rain shield with embedded thunder seems more likely
According to CIPS we basically have a good 8 days of severe weather threats.
looks like a high-shear-low-cape QLCS setup for areas east of the MS River
One of these days we're not going to have low-cape to save us. Especially as we warm up going into May.
Yeah even with the lack of cape, thats quite a favorable look for a low topped QLCS at H5, and that’s a very strong LLvL jet aswell, with that strength of a LLvL jet and the AN gulf temps, you almost worry if globals are underdoing cape, especially for eastern areas of the SE given that it looks like it’ll come thru during peak heating, but that’s the type of low level shear to get you by with even 250jkgs of CAPE, interesting setup, but I think we’ve all have had enough, at least this thing isn’t digging out further west to pump in more warm sector
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Fortunately severe weather tends to decrease a lot in May as it shifts further north and west.
Very true. But we have had some big tornado outbreaks in May in the Carolina's. Plus, given how warm the Gulf is, I could see us having a bit of an extended severe weather season. Anyway, I don't want to clutter this thread with May discussions, so I will stop. Lol.
Shaggy
Member
My biggest severe day last year was the moderate risk at the end of may. Had 2 hail storms and it ruined a concert we were going to. Missed the barenaked ladies and hootie and the blowfish behind that day.
tennessee storm
Member
One our biggest tornado ? outbreaks west tennessee was in May. Violent ef4 with 20 fatalities... late May when things tend to head tonthr plains
JHS
Member
The biggest outbreak I can remember in the GSP CWA area took place on May 5 1989. Several EF4's that day.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Tornadoes are a very common occurrence in May in the Carolina's and TN Valley. For Dixie Alley, theirs is in March and April. By the end of May. the threat quickly diminishes and moves NW towards the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Then comes derecho and MCS season. Probably my favorite time of year!
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Brick Tamland
Guest
So, is this threat still viable? Seems kind of quiet here for a threat just two days out.
Dawgdaze22
Member
NAM still has a highly sheared low topped and highly forced QLCS, soundings out ahead have very shallow cape, but in all honesty, could support convection with adequate shear (HSLC) also notice inverted Vs with a lot of soundings which enhances Storm downdrafts, damaging winds could be a issue and the main threat with this one 
Euro shows the same 
SWB
Member
Shaggy
Member
Mhx starting to mention a later timing and slightly better chances for storms.
As for the severe
weather threat, the later timing increases chances for
destabilization during the day Thursday, and given the strong
shear expected, would qualify the threat as increasing. Modeled
reflectivity is resolving a slow moving squall line with
possible intensification over the area during the day which
seems plausible.
As for the severe
weather threat, the later timing increases chances for
destabilization during the day Thursday, and given the strong
shear expected, would qualify the threat as increasing. Modeled
reflectivity is resolving a slow moving squall line with
possible intensification over the area during the day which
seems plausible.
Pretty good potential for a MCS to get going from OK east into west Tn that moves south and east before dying off overnight. East of that moisture return is still the big question mark, with the amount of forcing aloft at least a narrow band of storms looks likely.
BMX says slight risk for Wednesday
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NAM 3km has quite a nasty QLCS with even a meso low look, lol 
LMBO. the NAM and 3KM NAM being crazy as always. Actually showing some PDS TOR soundings toward the end of the day WED.
In between 21z and 00z nam showing PDS TOR (on cod site) I don't know how much I believe all this, they sucked the last 2 events so......take with big grain of salt.
In between 21z and 00z nam showing PDS TOR (on cod site) I don't know how much I believe all this, they sucked the last 2 events so......take with big grain of salt.
Not a lot of CAPE which is good, but I have a hard time believing the NAM as of late. It wouldn't take much to get some of that higher CAPE values up this area...
Not going to need a lot of cape with this forcing is through the roof. Really hard to see this as anything but a forced line though
Yeah the feb event that produced tors around CLT is somewhat a good example of copious amounts out forcing but barely any cape, all this setup really needs is 100-200jkg of cape and its game on, although the tor threat looks lower from inverted V soundings appearing out ahead
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So what do you do with 1000-2000 SBCAPE? Lol
BufordWX
Member
What in the world is the goofy Nam up to this time?
Yay, another event, more backed surface winds.. 
I'm guessing that's for the Charlotte region?