Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Another important observation for Saturday, in addition to less synoptic scale forcing for ascent...
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4/24/20-4/26/20 possible severe weather
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Given this ^, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if the warm sector managed to creep up into the southern mid-Atlantic (i.e. Virginia) Saturday night
Gfs still shows impressive soundings, heres one near CLT, once again, nice large hail sounding given the hodo (very straight from 3-11km given the strong SR winds, and solid thermodynamics, but these soundings are also pretty solid for damaging winds given the dry subcloud layer and dry air aloft along with large DCAPE 
NAM literally wants to hold back the system until Sunday morning all the sudden, these models lately have been a pain in the ass
Gfs holding Steady, who wants hail ? Lol 
NAM is a classic @Webberweather53 
NAM shows More than enough CAPE
Also shows storms arriving at or just right after peak heating, soundings are supportive of some very large hail given the large amounts of cape coinciding with solid 0-6km bulk shear and elongated mid/upper level hodos, also solid soundings for damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes, SPC put that marginal out due to uncertainty but I wanna bet there’s going to be a upgrade if things hold
NAM shows More than enough CAPE
Also shows storms arriving at or just right after peak heating, soundings are supportive of some very large hail given the large amounts of cape coinciding with solid 0-6km bulk shear and elongated mid/upper level hodos, also solid soundings for damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes, SPC put that marginal out due to uncertainty but I wanna bet there’s going to be a upgrade if things hold
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, given there are actually storms, this area averaged environmental sounding on the 6z GFS can support "gorilla" hail.
Yo Fro and Webb
Jessy89
Member
This Saturday event seems to be the one to watch. Seems like no blanket will limit severe weather. At least a hail and damaging wind event
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yummy little UH streaks as well, might chase locally ? soundings are good for structure 
I just realized looking at temps/SBcape the 3km nam sets up a backdoor front, hmmm
Yup hell of a boundary
Turning is quite impressive along that boundary, backed surface winds 
CIPS analog points to the main threat being hail
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that's exactly what I expected to see.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a classic Great Plains dry line big hail sounding minus the fact that environmental CAPE is <500 j/kg. If we can get more CAPE than forecast by the 12z NAM, we're going to be in big trouble
Well considering that how bad the NAM was with this system and how it did with Easter, CAPE was higher, I have a hard time trusting the NAM, at times. I'm guessing an increase in CAPE would cause a tornado concern?
I'm driving from Charlotte to Charleston and I'm going Thru the Midlands.. the winds are crazy I think I just went through a wake low.. it's not even raining that much but trees are down..
NAM went crazy this run (sounding right near CLT), impressive thermodynamics but also shows large amounts of shear with impressive low level hodos, don’t really buy it to Much and it’s later speed, think late evening/before midnight is the best window for storms and the main threat would likely be large hail, although it is worth noting that with that type of look at H5, soundings like this and wind profiles like this is at least possible 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In this case, the increase in CAPE would likely increase the hail threat even more although tor risk would also go up. The long, straight hodographs with little curvature above 1km in some of the NAM runs, High DCAPE, & potential for the storms to arrive after dark, and thus become elevated if sufficient surface based CAPE isn't realized, definitely makes me lean very heavily in the direction of hail over tors.
Looking at hodographs from the 3km nam and boy there favorable for large hail, once again you got decent low level hodo curvature from some rotation with right movers, then as you head upstairs winds get strong which relates to the long straight hodo past 3km, very favorable hodograph for large hail and some splitters, if you get sufficient cape with it then oof
Also keep seeing winds near that boundary backing significantly on the 3km around the surface, this would push the rain/hail away from any mesocyclone back into the storm, sucks it’ll likely be to dark to see anything good structure wise
SWB
Member
Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Not looking good during night hours. At this time shows to dissipate as it moves into Northern Mississippi.
HrrrV4 was about to go boom, sets up a boundary right along the piedmont with enhanced 0-3km cape and enhanced 1km SRH, this boundary needs to be watched for tornado potential IMO 
NAM basically takes a decent amount of NC out the threat from that backdoor front, really didn’t wanna chase... those backed low level winds tho
Jessy89
Member
The little line of storms that develop in Georgia moves across upstate sc is something to watch
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It's the NAM. We can pretty take it with a grain of salt. I don't even know what model has the most success and verified with severe weather, these past 2 weeks.
Hrrrv4 still looks interesting, fires supercells out ahead of the cold front and has that boundary aiding in SRH, even with the marginal still in place for tomorrow (due to uncertainty on low level moisture) this still has a bigger ceiling for NC, way bigger ceiling 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We seem to be generally zeroing in on extreme NE GA, upstate SC, and the southwestern piedmont of NC tomorrow.
HREF's first crack at this event argues for ~500-1000 j/kg MUCAPE coupled w/ ~60-70 knots of deep layer shear in areas like Charlotte & Greenville-Spartanburg
HREF's first crack at this event argues for ~500-1000 j/kg MUCAPE coupled w/ ~60-70 knots of deep layer shear in areas like Charlotte & Greenville-Spartanburg
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HREF fixed layer sig tor.
The backdoor front stalls near Charlotte and locally enhances the tor threat on this run.
The backdoor front stalls near Charlotte and locally enhances the tor threat on this run.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
CIPS analogs continue to insist that hail will be the primary severe threat tomorrow. The axis of most significant severe will probably be shifted east of where its shown here.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The WRF-ARW2, 3km NAM, & HRW-NSSL have a nasty semi-discrete complex of embedded supercells rolling through upstate SC tomorrow evening and attempt to create a mesolow.
Good maybe they weaken some since they still far enough away at 0z Sunday.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There may not be much in the way of surface based CAPE as you get closer to the VA border in the western piedmont
mbway091
Member
Will Greensboro skate through another significant severe event? Let's find out...
Jessy89
Member
I’m really surprised extreme Ne Georgia and upstate sc isn’t in a slight risk. Seems like good agreement for a area of storms moving through possibly hail makers to.
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mbway091
Member
The CIPS severe analogs are definitely shifting down that way. I keep forgetting that we're only one day out from this. There's really not a lot of chatter about it like there has been for the last few.