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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Latest from WRAL.

UPDATE: Parts of North Carolina have a Level 3 (Enhanced) Risk for Severe Weather Monday. The latest thoughts are that the line of storms is arriving later than originally thought and will move through Monday morning through midday.

We still could see Severe Storms late Sunday night through early Monday morning before that strong line gets in.

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DustinWx said:
Where would you guys chase?
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Daylight being a requirement for tomorrow, Jackson MS, likely I55 north from there. On Monday, I95 in SE NC. Overnight and looking for wholesale straight line wind, NE AL, NW GA, SE TN for what will likely be an epic bowing segment.
 
JHS said:
May 5 1989 was a rough day in what is now the GSP county warning area. The 1994 system was basically a couple of supercells that came out of GA and AL and crossed the GSP CWA from Habersham county GA to northeast of Charlotte NC. Parts of Oconee county got hit very hard that day. Another tornado from those same cells touched down near Charlotte. On to this system, I wonder if the wedge will really leave this area. I know this one if forecast to and the wind field favors it eroding but I have saw the wedge hang on too many times over the last 30 years. IF it stay in the area the threat of tornadoes will be very high near it.
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That was a very rough night and I remember it well. There was a lot of heavy rain during the day with 2-4 inches across the Charlotte area. Then after it got dark, I remember all heck breaking loose. I remember Ray Boylan being on air for over 3 hours as those storms were bearing down. We actually lost part of an oak tree in my parents yard and Hugo took the rest 4 months later
 
Was wanting to stay in Alabama. Think Mississippi will arrest you for breaking lockdown


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Interestingly enough the local met at TWC news doesn't really mention anything other than lightning being a threat Monday morning for the greater Charlotte area.
 
Had a friend of mine in Metro Atlanta text me and say it’s all BS and that “today has shown there is no threat for us” wtf??


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ryan1234 said:
For the love of humanity, I hope that was a mistake on the teleprompter...
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When going over their radar model for Monday morning and it showed the line of storms, all she mentioned was lightning though they did show the severe risk map that had Eastern NC under enhanced.
 
In my opinion it’s a mistake on behalf of the SPC to not issue at least an Enhanced risk for the entire state of NC. Are we missing something they’re seeing?
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Had a friend of mine in Metro Atlanta text me and say it’s all BS and that “today has shown there is no threat for us” wtf??


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Don't know what he/she is looking at. In fact, most ATL mets have been pretty serious about the threat tomorrow, as they should be. Kirk Mellish mentions bust potential in his blog but that it's not worth anticipating and letting your guard down
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Had a friend of mine in Metro Atlanta text me and say it’s all BS and that “today has shown there is no threat for us” wtf??


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It could bust. We have seen it before. Let’s hope this one is a dud too!


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Dawgdaze22 said:
Had a friend of mine in Metro Atlanta text me and say it’s all BS and that “today has shown there is no threat for us” wtf??


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SimeonNC said:
When going over their radar model for Monday morning and it showed the line of storms, all she mentioned was lightning though they did show the severe risk map that had Eastern NC under enhanced.
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See, this is EXACTLY why I worry. This setup has been advertised on modeling for over a week. Yet, the closer we get to this event. modeling has been constantly persistent with a significant outbreak.

That's just irresponsible. And she should be fired. I am so tired of Met's not getting the respect they deserve. Media is so scared of negative ratings, that they will literally downplay weather until the last minute from fear of being scrutinized and trashed. But I have no respect for any channel or legitimate met who says "lightning is our biggest problem."
 
mbway091 said:
That’s entirely possible. These folks are the best of the best. It’s also still a bit early for NC. I imagine if they did expand the threat they would do it with tomorrow’s updates.
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This. Look, nobody is above screwing up or missing something, but the SPC is as good as it gets and they get it right A LOT when idiots like us are over here chirping about what we "think" they ought to be doing. Sure, forums exist for weenies like us to play armchair meteorologist and HOPE for things to be terrible, lament when things aren't terrible, and no one cares what we think about anything, nor should they. SPC? Not so much. There's a lot riding on every update during a system like this and those dudes know what they're doing.
 
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