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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Cadi40 said:
Would a QLCS entering the Charlotte region with that amount of instability be conducive for Tornadoes?
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A few hundred j/kg of CAPE would be enough instability to legitimately produce tornadoes in that kind of environment, any non-zero CAPE really could do it, but typically want to see at least something in the ballpark of 200-250 j/kg ish but again general rule of thumb based on personal experience and other big outbreaks. Some NWP models are forecasting anywhere from 500 to 1500 j/kg+
 
Anyone really believe there’s gonna be active tornado warnings at 5-7am?


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Jessy89 said:
Anyone really believe there’s gonna be active tornado warnings at 5-7am?


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I believe there will be especially with the parameters in place. It’s not like the tornado threat just vanishes because it’s the middle of the night. Last year I was under a tornado warning at 5:00 AM.
 
Interesting to see the STP range below 5 and CAPE not too extreme ~ 1000 to 1500. What stands out is the effective helicity and shear.

Webberweather53 said:
Just for some perspective again, here's the distributions of supercell & sig tor composite parameters, effective helicity, effective shear, & LCL for about 20 strong (EF2+) tornado cases in central NC.

There's no denying that this setup is towards the upper end of the parameter space even for those cases.



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Not that this compares, but I believe it was the Enigma outbreak that was thought to one of the largest outbreaks ever. Tornadoes were reported at all times during that outbreak.
 
I wonder if theres ever been an F5/EF5 tornado at night. I imagine a storm of that intensity would have a hard time forming during the night.
 
Hardly any other way to describe the HREF ensemble mean forecast parameter space in the Carolinas monday morning, other than it's insanely favorable for tornadoes & damaging straight line winds, especially given that these values are probably dampened by increasing model spread wrt range.

srh01_mean.ma.f04400.png

mucape_mean.ma.f04700.png

850mb_mean.ma.f04700.pngstpfixed_mean.ma.f04600.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hardly any other way to describe the HREF ensemble mean forecast parameter space in the Carolinas monday morning, other than it's insanely favorable for tornadoes & damaging straight line winds, especially given that these values are probably dampened by increasing model spread wrt range.

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Good Lord. That's all I have to say... I have never seen values that high here or in GA. Each model run continues to show this too. It's a trend that I doubt is going to just perish. GSP and mets here need to be discussing this. And I mean, like right now.
 
Things are starting to fire up in Texas now. And things continue to look bad for the southeast tomorrow and Monday. Hope to see the threat decreasing, but doesn't look that is going to happen.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Never thought I’d have to worry in Metro Atlanta


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I've been through some tornadoes growing up in Woodstock. I was young, but distinctly remember a few that were pretty serious. This could be my first major outbreak here, in the Charlotte area, since I moved here. In fact, it will be. And I normally don't worry too much, but I am very worried about this setup. There is nothing to prevent this from coming to fruition. Normally we have that wedge and that has saved our butts multiple times. This won't be the case. Local mets and GSP need to get on this NOW!
 
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