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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

ryan1234 said:
NWS ATL did. I think it's kinda premature, but that's my opinion. Not that they are wrong, given current modeling. But so much can and will change.
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I think they are trying to get the attention of the +7mm people who live in their CWA and are only paying attention to Covid-19 stories right now. Plus what’s historic for NGA is a lot different than what’s historic for MS/AL. They have a high bar to clear for that!
 
Something to also keep in mind besides the Tornado threat. Most areas will probably see 1-2 inches of rain during the day Sunday. Which will saturate the ground enough. With some of these models bringing 50-60+ mph wind gusts even without thunderstorms. We could see thousands of power outages across a wide spread area of the southeast.


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Ron Burgundy said:
I think they are trying to get the attention of the +7mm people who live in their CWA and are only paying attention to Covid-19 stories right now. Plus what’s historic for NGA is a lot different than what’s historic for MS/AL. They have a high bar to clear for that!
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Hmm... that's actually a great observation. And if that's the case, some of the other NWS offices are doing other area's a disservice.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just for some perspective again, here's the distributions of supercell & sig tor composite parameters, effective helicity, effective shear, & LCL for about 20 strong (EF2+) tornado cases in central NC.

There's no denying that this setup is towards the upper end of the parameter space even for those cases.



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Curious looking at that map. Has there never been an EF5 in that state?
 
Jessy89 said:
Something to also keep in mind besides the Tornado threat. Most areas will probably see 1-2 inches of rain during the day Sunday. Which will saturate the ground enough. With some of these models bringing 50-60+ mph wind gusts even without thunderstorms. We could see thousands of power outages across a wide spread area of the southeast.


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Hopefully any power outages won’t last to long because a lot of people have freezers and fridges full of food from stocking up while on shelter in place.
 
Cadi40 said:
Models still continue to enhance STP and activity in general in and around the Charlotte region, should I be concerned?
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Yes. We ALL need to be weather aware. And since we a lot of us lack any outdoor warning systems, we need to make sure our phones are charged and that we have other ways to get warnings.
 
ryan1234 said:
THANK YOU! I was just about to post that. Like, what is SPC thinking? Even Brad P. who normally leans conservative is worried about the increasing tornado threat. I have a feeling that the warm front will add even more energy and the possibility of some sig tornadoes. If we are still in the slight risk come tomorrow, I will lose some respect for SPC. Need to get people prepared.
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You are right about Brad P. I just had a chance to watch his Vlog from this morning and he is very concerned about this. I honestly haven’t seen him this certain of something since right before the flooding from Hurricane Florence
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm sorry but keeping the Carolinas in the slight risk is a complete joke at this point. No meteorologist in their right mind that's actually looking at the type of environment that's being consistently forecasted over the Carolinas Sunday night into early Monday would conclude there's only a low/slight risk of straight line wind damage and tornadoes. I get the whole ordeal wrt their forecasts ending near 12z but, I think the SPC is really out to lunch on the overall threat level in the Carolinas.
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Good call. Their new wording is a little worrisome for eastern NC

Trend has been for a slower progression of broken line of storms
that should extend from western VA southward through the central
Carolinas by 12Z Monday. This should allow greater downstream
destabilization across the eastern Carolinas as upper 60s F
dewpoints advect inland from the Gulf stream, along with possibility
of modest diabatic heating of the boundary layer supporting up to
1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Wind profiles with 50+ kt effective bulk shear and
large 0-1 km hodographs will support embedded supercells and bowing
linear segments with damaging wind and tornadoes the main threats
from morning into early afternoon.
 
Matthew70 said:
Curious looking at that map. Has there never been an EF5 in that state?
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Unless revisions downgraded, there was an operationally categorized F5 that intensified in NC from the F4 that struck Bennettsville, SC causing major casualties and damage on March 28th, 1984. One of the most violent and deadly outbreaks in Carolinas history
 
Just saw NWS post this on their FB page... umm, why do they have a picture of hail and lightning when tornadoes and damaging winds are the main threats? I understand it's probably something that they post during any outbreak, but you would think they might be a little more willing to make a new, updated checklist highlighting what is most likey. Just seems kinda silly.


nws.png
 
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Stormsfury said:
Unless revisions downgraded, there was an operationally categorized F5 that intensified in NC from the F4 that struck Bennettsville, SC causing major casualties and damage on March 28th, 1984. One of the most violent and deadly outbreaks in Carolinas history
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Pitt county tornado on that day had winds at 205mph I believe.
 
ryan1234 said:
Just saw NWS post this on their FB page... umm, why do they have a picture of hail and lightning when tornadoes and damaging winds are the main threats? I understand it's probably something that they post during any outbreak, but you would think they might be a little more willing to make a new, updated checklist highlighting what is most likey. Just seems kinda silly.


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That is a premade graphic they release commonly, it doesn't have anything to do with the expected threats.
 
ryan1234 said:
Just saw NWS post this on their FB page... umm, why do they have a picture of hail and lightning when tornadoes and damaging winds are the main threats? I understand it's probably something that they post during any outbreak, but you would think they might be a little more willing to make a new, updated checklist highlighting what is most likey. Just seems kinda silly.


View attachment 39016
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Looks like it might could be a spinner chasing that lighting ... ?
 
The 3km NAM's CAPE and thermo profiles busted horribly today in Texas (on the low side), makes me cringe to think about the possibility that it's underselling the CAPE & low-level lapse rates here in NC. Also, the amount of crapvection forecast by the CAMs has been severely oversold thus far.
 
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