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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

NAM threat decreasing here.

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BHS1975 said:
NAM threat decreasing here.

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Curious to see how the 0z HRRR looks because the NAM's thermals have absolutely sucked in TX/OK and it's been way too overzealous with crapvection thus far.

Nearly every short-range, high resolution model forecast convection to have already fired in the lower Rio Grande Valley last night and nothing happened. Strongly suspect they vastly underestimated the mid-level capping inversion, which is probably to be expected when you have a roaring subtropical jet like this that advects elevated mixed layers (EMLs) like no tomorrow. The lack of crapvection there moves the needle a bit in favor of boom over bust tomorrow in MS/AL, still a lot left to resolve however.

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Reality:

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I'm worried some models and parameters will actually bust low in the Carolina's, however I hope that's far from the case. Given the situation, it doesn't really matter at this point what the exact numerical parameters are showing, we need to prepare for a severe outbreak across the Southeast.
 
ryan1234 said:
Part of them leaning this way, and this is pure speculation at this point, is that it has been a LONG time since we had a threat of a tornado outbreak in the western Carolina's. Eastern NC had one in 2011, but besides that, there are only a few more that come to mind in our area. 1989 and I wan to say 1994? It was a Palm Sunday one, I believe. I just think they are waiting before they pull the "historic card" from fear of busting. But I just don't see how we bust tomorrow. I don't see the wedge holding on during the whole event, and that's normally been our saving grace in the past. Timing is also irrelevant given this setup. And like you said, I think this area might end more primed than GA, to some degree.
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May 5 1989 was a rough day in what is now the GSP county warning area. The 1994 system was basically a couple of supercells that came out of GA and AL and crossed the GSP CWA from Habersham county GA to northeast of Charlotte NC. Parts of Oconee county got hit very hard that day. Another tornado from those same cells touched down near Charlotte. On to this system, I wonder if the wedge will really leave this area. I know this one if forecast to and the wind field favors it eroding but I have saw the wedge hang on too many times over the last 30 years. IF it stay in the area the threat of tornadoes will be very high near it.
 
BHS1975 said:
NAM threat decreasing here.

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Sadly, it's not significant enough to really make a difference. Plus, I try to rely on short term modeling at this point. And the fact that it's one run. I am not letting my guard down yet. And I still feel like the I-77 is still going to be a hotspot. It's all about the warm front.
 
April is typically not favorable for my backyard (Fall months are prime) but I think some tornadoes are possible Davie County NC East to Fayetteville. Not a lot and prob not a big outbreak IMO. This is just for NC given poor timing, widespread rains, etc.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
April is typically not favorable for my backyard (Fall months are prime) but I think some tornadoes are possible Davie County NC East to Fayetteville. Not a lot and prob not a big outbreak IMO. This is just for NC given poor timing, widespread rains, etc.
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Timing don’t matter much when you have a 60kt+ low level jet coinciding with 1000+jkg SBcape and over 100 jkgs of low level instability, sure daytime adds more heating into the mix and would likely make things muchhh worse, but those parameters alone are insane, and it’s starting to look like areas around CLT-East May see storms around 9-10am, which allows a few hours of further destabilization,
I’m not saying there’s gonna be tornadoes everywhere, but timing in this general setup does not matter as much as it would normally would, the thing that could throw a wrench in things tbh is messy storm modes, and even with that the wind damage threat would be significant, these parameters are worse than the soundings out that moderate last year in NC, so in my opinion a slight risk (even rn) Is way to low
 
BHS1975 said:
NAM threat decreasing here.

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The 18z run pushed an outflow boundary out in front of the main convection but yeah as a whole it was a step back from the ridiculous numbers previously

I still wouldn't sleep on Monday afternoon/ evening slong the front itself. Any updraft that can get going an survive the dry air aloft has decent hail/wind potential
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