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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

NWTENN said:
This. Look, nobody is above screwing up or missing something, but the SPC is as good as it gets and they get it right A LOT when idiots like us are over here chirping about what we "think" they ought to be doing. Sure, forums exist for weenies like us to play armchair meteorologist and HOPE for things to be terrible, lament when things aren't terrible, and no one cares what we think about anything, nor should they. SPC? Not so much. There's a lot riding on every update during a system like this and those dudes know what they're doing.
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See, no one wants things to be terrible. Not sure where or why you think that. We are just reading the data as it comes in. SPC does it twice on a 2-day outlook. There are a lot of people who don't play. "armchair meteorologists" and who actually have knowledge and experience with weather in their area. SPC has busted multiple times. Think before you insult a whole board who, for the most part, are very knowledgable.
 
If I were chasing tomorrow would probably start out on the MS/AL border due west of Birmingham. That should provide time to see how things develop through the early afternoon and adjust accordingly. Would probably be a good spot for any early supercells if we get those.

On another note, it’s good to see lots of activity on here. Let’s make sure friends and family are aware of the potential tomorrow/Monday. Even though there is a lot of uncertainty about how exactly it will play out, there’s no denying the potential. Make sure the people you care about are aware and prepared.
 
Hey Webb what are your thoughts so far on how this is performing in Texas?? Seems like there are a few Supercells getting out but staying pretty much at the Severe Thunderstorm level since far??
 
NoSnowATL said:
I still think it’s low for my area. Alabama and West Georgia it’s pretty high. I’ll still set my alarm and track it overnight. Better to be safe then sorry.


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You think the chance to bust is higher in Alabama and W Georgia?


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ryan1234 said:
See, no one wants things to be terrible. Not sure where or why you think that. We are just reading the data as it comes in. SPC does it twice on a 2-day outlook. There are a lot of people who don't play. "armchair meteorologists" and who actually have knowledge and experience with weather in their area. SPC has busted multiple times. Think before you insult a whole board who, for the most part, are very knowledgable.
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Points taken... partially; especially about there being legitimately knowledgeable here... there are and I've learned a ton from being part of this forum, a ton! BUT... every time there's a potential winter storm, we all want it to be epic, and shot the whole south down, and be a repeat of 1993. When there's a SVR threat, there's a massive sense of disappointment when early major threats decrease as the events get closer... ie, "we'll be lucky if we even get thunder here," kind of posts. It's not bad or wrong, it's just what it is. And, I'm just saying the SPC gets it right A WHOLE FREAKIN' LOT. That's all. And I'm done; I don't want to get thrown in off topic jail.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Always, this system has had a lot of hype, if we don’t see some large tornadoes some people will say bust bla bla. . I hope it craps out so I can get some sleep.


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Interesting. Metro Atlanta still in the threat area pretty good?


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This will be the area to watch over the next few hours. Most CAMs have storms developing across the border and moving into Texas during the overnight hours tonight and pushing to the northeast. Already got one supercell moving in now.FDB7C22B-A60C-4D16-9D1F-969510DA5CA1.png
 
NWTENN said:
Points taken... partially; especially about there being legitimately knowledgeable here... there are and I've learned a ton from being part of this forum, a ton! BUT... every time there's a potential winter storm, we all want it to be epic, and shot the whole south down, and be a repeat of 1993. When there's a SVR threat, there's a massive sense of disappointment when early major threats decrease as the events get closer... ie, "we'll be lucky if we even get thunder here," kind of posts. It's not bad or wrong, it's just what it is. And, I'm just saying the SPC gets it right A WHOLE FREAKIN' LOT. That's all. And I'm done; I don't want to get thrown in off topic jail.
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Nah, you're good. Weather is a science and it's almost impossible to get right 100% of the time. I am merely an amateur myself. But I joined this board so I could get different opinions, and not just one station or met.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Interesting. Metro Atlanta still in the threat area pretty good?


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Atlanta is on the line but they always are. I’ve just not seen too many tornado outbreaks at that timeframe so I’ll lean to past history experience in this area and say it won’t be as bad as the models show. I hope I’m right. If the wording changes tomorrow I might change my mind.


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NoSnowATL said:
Atlanta is on the line but they always are. I’ve just not seen too many tornado outbreaks at that timeframe so I’ll lean to past history experience in this area and say it won’t be as bad as the models show. I hope I’m right. If the wording changes tomorrow I might change my mind.


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If the wording of NWS?


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To be honest I'll probably be asleep tomorrow night lol. Hopefully that won't be an issue, I remember there was one case where I was asleep and was awoken by a loud thunderstorm, eventually decided to roll over and check my tablet to make sure there wasn't a tornado warning, it wasn't, but there was a severe warning.

If there is an issue, I just hope I wake up. I know, and have been told that I have slept straight through loud thunderstorms. There's no guarantee that I do.

But I will be tracking along some during the day. I actually watched livestormchasing a little tonight. Yep, they're still chasing despite the lockdown. I'm guessing some people are going to be sleeping in trucks today.
 
NoSnowATL said:
That’s 1st in my book. That was also a multiple day outbreak.


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It concerns me some that some of the worst ATL has had were late night/ predawn events... March 74 QLCS, 03/24/75 "Governors Tornado" March 1990 QLCS..... and the "Airport Tornado that hit Hartsfield in late night come to mind right now
 
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