Although Humberto is now a former shadow of itself, it looks quite likely that Humberto was even stronger than the 160mph operarionally assessed. Pressure probably got into the 910s range or lower during absolute peak. If I were to guess, Humberto peaked at 180mph sustained.We'll never even know how strong Humberto was this weekend because they kept sending recon into Imelda but it was definitely a higher end 5 probably
It's really been historic just a few hundred miles off the east coast. A lot of years never even have one cat 5 and there's been two this year
And neither will hit the USYeah we may never see this againView attachment 175304
been a tough 2020s so far, don't mind a breatherAnd neither will hit the US
Mjo gets back into p8/1 with some amplitude so this probably tracks
Even the fantasy runs troll the US.
All season long.Gfs is just relentless in kicking out fantasy land threats
I mean it went from a WSW motion across the gulf into the BoC to a Maine landfall in like 2 runs.All season long.
Euro in fantasy land
View attachment 175335
Models went from getting into the Gulf to it riding up east of the Bermuda so I would go with the writing up east of Bermuda just because of the seasonal trend
Once again it seems the east coast is dodging a threat because of a low that forms off the coast and breaks the ridge down and allows the early turn. It would likely still miss but be a closer threat if it wasn't for that lead storm popping off SCIt would almost certainly be a miss of the Conus if it were to be a TC E of 55W per history. There hasn’t been on record even one TC existing E of 55W after October 4th that made it all of the way to the Conus! (I’ve checked all of the years.) That doesn’t mean it’s impossible and that it won’t eventually happen. But that does mean the chance is tiny.
OTOH, it is were to be very slow to develop into a TD and wait, say, til near the Lesser Antilles or further W, then there would no longer be the near certainty of a Conus miss. It might then still be a likelihood but not a near certainty looking from this far out.
Gfs is staying active and doesn't want to give up on the season.MJO is forecasted to continue to traverse mainly favorable phases meaning a resumption of activity fairly soon wouldn’t be surprising, especially with it being La Niña:
View attachment 175348View attachment 175349
Gfs is staying active and doesn't want to give up on the season.
1954 would still have Hazel later in the month and 1985 would still have Kate that hit the Florida panhandle as a strong category 2 just a few days before ThanksgivingYeah, there’s no reason for models to give up this early in the late active season, especially in La Niña:
As of 10/3:
2024 still had 46% of ACE left
2020, 2016 still had 40%
2005 still had 29%
1999 24%
1998 27%
1996 19%
1985 35%
1966 31%
1954 42%
1950 23%
Yeah as much as I want it to be over at this point October still has a bad history
Including the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic and yeah Hazel is still one of the worst hurricanes ever on the east coast
And yeah the icon is busy at the end of the run too
Best hurricane model around.
It's a great winter model too because it's the most pessimistic.Best hurricane model around.