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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

They should have just used the same plane and hit the center of Imelda on the way to Humberto lmao. Crazy scenes

1759184051571.png
 
Brent said:
We'll never even know how strong Humberto was this weekend because they kept sending recon into Imelda but it was definitely a higher end 5 probably

It's really been historic just a few hundred miles off the east coast. A lot of years never even have one cat 5 and there's been two this year
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Although Humberto is now a former shadow of itself, it looks quite likely that Humberto was even stronger than the 160mph operarionally assessed. Pressure probably got into the 910s range or lower during absolute peak. If I were to guess, Humberto peaked at 180mph sustained.
 
Shaggy said:
I mean why not

View attachment 175315
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Climo for Oct 11-20 formations says that the most dangerous ones (especially for C America, C and S FL, Caymans, Cuba, Bahamas, and Jamaica) as well as highest concentration by a good margin form S of Cuba (some on your map are in that area):

IMG_4699.png
 
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Maybe something near Florida this weekend. GFS tries to spin up a tropical storm that crosses the Peninsula and then goes towards the Panhandle

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form near the northwestern Bahamas and
southern Florida by Saturday. Any additional development is
expected to be slow to occur as the system moves northwestward
across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 pe
rcent.
 
Michael 2018 Vibes
Big H over the middle guessing this would turn after shooting the gap and head straight to the panhandle

Hopefully this stays out in fantasy land
 
There have been two lemons in the last few TWOs. Here’s the 2AM for the one in the MDR:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Jelsema
——————-

Pertaining to this lemon:

I didn’t post it. But the 12Z UKMET had a TC form from this at 162 hours and it was already recurving/moving NW to 23.7N, 57.2W at 168.

The new UKMET (0Z) forms it 18 hours earlier and it moves WNW instead of NW meaning it ends up much further S than the 12Z run had it at the end of the run (~150 miles NE of the Leewards):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2025 132 15.7N 53.2W 1009 40
0000UTC 09.10.2025 144 17.5N 56.5W 1009 39
1200UTC 09.10.2025 156 18.8N 59.3W 1009 34
0000UTC 10.10.2025 168 19.7N 61.4W 1008 31
 
Shaggy said:
Models went from getting into the Gulf to it riding up east of the Bermuda so I would go with the writing up east of Bermuda just because of the seasonal trend
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It would almost certainly be a miss of the Conus if it were to be a TC E of 55W per history. There hasn’t been on record even one TC existing E of 55W after October 4th that made it all of the way to the Conus! (I’ve checked all of the years.) That doesn’t mean it’s impossible and that it won’t eventually happen. But that does mean the chance is tiny.

OTOH, it is were to be very slow to develop into a TD and wait, say, til near the Lesser Antilles or further W, then there would no longer be the near certainty of a Conus miss. It might then still be a likelihood but not a near certainty looking from this far out.
 
GaWx said:
It would almost certainly be a miss of the Conus if it were to be a TC E of 55W per history. There hasn’t been on record even one TC existing E of 55W after October 4th that made it all of the way to the Conus! (I’ve checked all of the years.) That doesn’t mean it’s impossible and that it won’t eventually happen. But that does mean the chance is tiny.

OTOH, it is were to be very slow to develop into a TD and wait, say, til near the Lesser Antilles or further W, then there would no longer be the near certainty of a Conus miss. It might then still be a likelihood but not a near certainty looking from this far out.
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Once again it seems the east coast is dodging a threat because of a low that forms off the coast and breaks the ridge down and allows the early turn. It would likely still miss but be a closer threat if it wasn't for that lead storm popping off SC
 
Regarding this “pumpkin” (as someone else called it) just coming into the far E MDR that we’re discussing:

12Z UKMET: 3rd in a row with TCG from this; similar TCG to prior run but moves NW instead of WNW and thus ends up further N than prior run although not quite as far N as two runs ago; Also this one has it become declassified at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.6N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 132 17.8N 56.3W 1009 36
1200UTC 09.10.2025 144 19.9N 59.3W 1010 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 156 21.8N 61.2W 1009 29
1200UTC 10.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING
 
Downeastnc said:
Euro seems bullish

View attachment 175345
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The 12Z Euro for the “pumpkin”:

no TC til ~192 hours when it’s 1005 mb that’s ~125 miles N of PR. But it’s already recurving sharply then and never gets stronger than 1005 mb til it gets to 30N way out in the middle of the ocean.

————
2 PM TWO up to 0/50:

2. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave
is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern
tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some
slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical
depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Berg
 
12Z GEFS: one of 30 hits Conus (hits S FL as a hurricane) and that’s because it’s the furthest SW member (at Barbados) as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. The rest are at that time from PR to the Leewards (~50%) with ~50% at that time well NE of the Leewards:

Here’s when that one member hits S FL. The one at the Outer Banks is from a NW Caribbean system:
IMG_4725.png

I don’t think any 12Z EPS are hitting the CONUS. If there are any, I can’t tell.
 
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