GeorgiaGirl
Member
Hour 270 is still not WAY out there though, but it'll be 500+ miles east or west of this at 18Z. Or as likely as not, completely gone.If this weren't essentially kicks and giggles land, I would be full on loathing where this run seems to be headed...
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Yes this is true. Guess I’ll wait and see how this plays out.EURO and AI still have nothing
0Z UK is similar to the 12Z with a TS N of the Leewards moving WNW:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.6N 56.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 132 15.6N 56.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 22.08.2025 144 16.3N 58.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 22.08.2025 156 18.1N 60.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 23.08.2025 168 19.4N 63.3W 1005 38
Starting to take off in the BahamasGFS haha all the other runs were a head fake. It makes a late attempt but much weaker than 18Z
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Starting to take off in the Bahamas
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I will say upfront that some of the EPS members either follow Erin out or struggle to develop behind it(shear from it?) but there's definitely more support for a threat than I thought
ICON is also picking up on the threat.I will say upfront that some of the EPS members either follow Erin out or struggle to develop behind it(shear from it?) but there's definitely more support for a threat than I thought