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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

GaWx said:
Followup to above:
0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run with a TD forming 200 miles E of Guadalupe:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29
Click to expand...

Followup: this looks like an AEW preceding the one the last two UKMET runs had:

12Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 16.4N 58.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 16.4N 58.4W 1009 32
 
Last edited:
Invest 98L up to 40% from 20%: recon in there now

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
 
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