lexxnchloe
Member
Yea, looks like another dead peak season. Amazing that Erin managed to sneak thru.Sinking air = no hurricanes
Yea, looks like another dead peak season. Amazing that Erin managed to sneak thru.Sinking air = no hurricanes
Followup to above:
0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run with a TD forming 200 miles E of Guadalupe:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29
And it is a potent storm at that sitting over the Bahamas! If this happens, this will have plenty of people along the Southeast coast paying attention. This would also be the F storm on the name list. I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for this to happen for two reasons: 1. It is the GFS forecast model showing this. 2. This is more than ten days away.
GFS Probably wont either, or it will be much weaker0Z UKMET, which goes out to 168, has no followup TC to Erin unlike the prior runs.
I remember well 1996 when Bertha and Fran paid North Carolina a visit. Me and a buddy of mine who is also a storm spotter went to the coast to greet Bertha as she arrived. Going down there was not bad and once we hunkered down near Atlantic Beach, the hurricane itself was quite the experience especially when the eye passed overhead. Getting home at night was sketchy with all of the large limbs and debris that covered some of the back roads.-Just for the record fwiw, the 6Z GFS hits Daytona on Aug 29 (way out at 2 weeks)
-Much more statistically significant than just a fantasyland op run, its ensemble is unsettlingly pretty active in/near the SE US during Aug 26-30. Here’s a snapshot as of hour 294 (12Z on 8/27):
View attachment 174275
-During this active period, GEFS has the MJO in/near phase 5. It’s not either of the 2 most active phases for H hits per day during Jul-Sep since 1975 (phases 2 and 8), but phase 5 has had the 3rd highest ratio of hits/day.
- During phase 5, these 10 Hs hit the Conus: Francine (2024), Ike (2008), Humberto (2007), Ophelia (2005), Isabel (2003), Bertha (1996), Fran (1996), Bob (1991), Elena (1985), and Babe (1977). Two areas were most impacted by these 10: NC (Ophelia, Isabel, Bertha, Fran, and Bob) and upper TX to FL panhandle (Francine, Ike, Humberto, Elena, and Babe).
EPS launching a few flares as well.-Just for the record fwiw, the 6Z GFS hits Daytona on Aug 29 (way out at 2 weeks)
-Much more statistically significant than just a fantasyland op run, its ensemble is unsettlingly pretty active in/near the SE US during Aug 26-30. Here’s a snapshot as of hour 294 (12Z on 8/27):
View attachment 174275
-During this active period, GEFS has the MJO in/near phase 5. It’s not either of the 2 most active phases for H hits per day during Jul-Sep since 1975 (phases 2 and 8), but phase 5 has had the 3rd highest ratio of hits/day.
- During phase 5, these 10 Hs hit the Conus: Francine (2024), Ike (2008), Humberto (2007), Ophelia (2005), Isabel (2003), Bertha (1996), Fran (1996), Bob (1991), Elena (1985), and Babe (1977). Two areas were most impacted by these 10: NC (Ophelia, Isabel, Bertha, Fran, and Bob) and upper TX to FL panhandle (Francine, Ike, Humberto, Elena, and Babe).
Followup: this looks like an AEW preceding the one the last two UKMET runs had:
12Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 16.4N 58.4W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 16.4N 58.4W 1009 32
EURO, GFS, UK in loose agreementUnlike the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET is back (similar to yesterday’s 12Z that I’m quoting) with a followup AEW to Erin becoming a TD at 162 and nearly to a TS at 168 just N of the Virgin Islands moving WNW. This looks like the same AEW that the 12Z GFS has but is ~500 miles further WNW than the GFS at 168, which is then only near 16N, 58W. This is the AEW causing the commotion in the SE US on the 6Z GEFS during 8/26-30:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 18.9N 62.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2025 168 19.4N 64.7W 1005 33
Wont develop unless GFS and EURO agree on development.Regarding the followup to Erin that GEFS remains pretty active with, the Euro ensemble is much quieter for the same time:
View attachment 174286
We just went through this with Erin. You didn't think she would form either but she did.Wont develop unless GFS and EURO agree on development.
We will see. When they both agree then its likely. Right now with EURO showing nada its not happening.We just went through this with Erin. You didn't think she would form either but she did.
Patience
GAWX has a dilemma. GFS says 100+winds, tornados and storm surge
View attachment 174288
Euro says partly cloudy with an isolated shower
View attachment 174289
AI has nada. Phantom storm.
Woof, the GFS showed this possibility again?
I'll believe it when we're within 144 and there's a track straight at Georgia, but I swear it'd be just my luck lol for me to shrug at waves coming off Africa...only to be rudely greeted with a rare GA landfall that may end up being just as problematic as the "homegrown" was in late September last year.
Really, if anything develops, I suspect it won't head straight towards Georgia though and will probably turn into a problem as the "F storm" in the Gulf or involving the Carolinas.
GAWX has a dilemma. GFS says 100+winds, tornados and storm surge
View attachment 174288
Lex, you are a clown. One post its "Right now with EURO showing nada its not happening" or, "Wont develop unless GFS and EURO agree on development" then the next is "AI has nada". Models have no idea whats going on 96 hours from now. I am so thankful you do not post 720 hr or 384 hr maps as often anymore. Now you need to stop with dismissing model runs you do not like because a hurricane does not hit your back yard.AI has nada. Phantom storm
Unlike the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET is back (similar to yesterday’s 12Z that I’m quoting) with a followup AEW to Erin becoming a TD at 162 and nearly to a TS at 168 just N of the Virgin Islands moving WNW. This looks like the same AEW that the 12Z GFS has but is ~500 miles further WNW than the GFS at 168, which is then only near 16N, 58W. This is the AEW causing the commotion in the SE US on the 6Z GEFS during 8/26-30:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 18.9N 62.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2025 168 19.4N 64.7W 1005 33
There's a cat 4 in the Atlantic on August 16th. If you're still complaining about how bad the season is I give up
There's been many seasons the entire year had none so stop complaining
Surprised no one posted the 6z GFS. Insane weenie run. Category 4 into Galveston. Imagine the surge. On the 20th anniversary of Katrina no less
View attachment 174315