lexxnchloe
Member
Yea, looks like another dead peak season. Amazing that Erin managed to sneak thru.
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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Followup: this looks like an AEW preceding the one the last two UKMET runs had:
12Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 16.4N 58.4W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 16.4N 58.4W 1009 32
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Invest 98L up to 40% from 20%: recon in there now
Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS has a follow up storm
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And it is a potent storm at that sitting over the Bahamas! If this happens, this will have plenty of people along the Southeast coast paying attention. This would also be the F storm on the name list. I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for this to happen for two reasons: 1. It is the GFS forecast model showing this. 2. This is more than ten days away.
18z GFS had a rare Georgia hurricane landfall! If this ever happened it would be insane
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS Probably wont either, or it will be much weaker