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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

Shaggy said:
It just came off the coast we will have plenty of runs to sort through over the next 10-12 days
Click to expand...

Yeah I do think odds favor OTS but I also remember when Irma was going OTS too

image-36.png

Watch and see the trends around Puerto Rico. If it's going OTS it should be way north of there. Notice how Irma went southwest for awhile

Florence is another one that should have went OTS. Notice how far north it was

Florence_2018_path.png
 
Last edited:
12Z UK: still has a TS but delayed vs 0Z and not as far N moving WNW at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.5N 51.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 120 21.1N 53.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 132 22.3N 56.9W 1011 27
1200UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.4N 59.6W 1009 30
0000UTC 16.08.2025 156 24.7N 62.1W 1008 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.0N 64.3W 1006 42
 
Euro op/ai are very reminiscent to 96 with the Initial strong system getting pulled out by a trough but the trailer having opportunity to get west as ridging rebuilds
 
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