Shaggy
Member
It just came off the coast we will have plenty of runs to sort through over the next 10-12 days
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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Yeah I do think odds favor OTS but I also remember when Irma was going OTS too
Watch and see the trends around Puerto Rico. If it's going OTS it should be way north of there. Notice how Irma went southwest for awhile
Florence is another one that should have went OTS. Notice how far north it was
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12Z UK: still has a TS but delayed vs 0Z and not as far N moving WNW at 168:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.5N 51.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 120 21.1N 53.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 132 22.3N 56.9W 1011 27
1200UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.4N 59.6W 1009 30
0000UTC 16.08.2025 156 24.7N 62.1W 1008 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.0N 64.3W 1006 42
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.5N 51.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 120 21.1N 53.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 132 22.3N 56.9W 1011 27
1200UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.4N 59.6W 1009 30
0000UTC 16.08.2025 156 24.7N 62.1W 1008 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.0N 64.3W 1006 42
NOAA still on track regarding the initial May outlook.
lexxnchloe
Member
After 97
lexxnchloe
Member
Shaggy
Member
At this rate the way it looks on satellite we shouldn't have to go too many days wondering if the models are tracking a true center.
Euro op/ai are very reminiscent to 96 with the Initial strong system getting pulled out by a trough but the trailer having opportunity to get west as ridging rebuilds
Anyone else surprised that the HNC hasn't painted a lemon on the trough that is now in the eastern GOM?
The high-resolution models do develop a surface LP and move it onshore near SE La. in a couple of days.
The high-resolution models do develop a surface LP and move it onshore near SE La. in a couple of days.
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
0Z UKMET for what may be first AEW behind 97L:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 16.0N 49.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 17.0N 51.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 18.4N 53.9W 1011 24
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 16.0N 49.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 17.0N 51.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 18.4N 53.9W 1011 24
lexxnchloe
Member
Too far north already
NCSNOW
Member
Always Fear the F and H named storms in the Carolina's. Over my years observing wx as a hobby, it just seems they give us the most stomach ulcers.
lexxnchloe
Member
A mirage or something of interest? GFS has nada
For the 1st time the gfs shows something similar to the euro
For the 1st time the gfs shows something similar to the euro
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lexxnchloe
Member
AI
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro has another way way east recurve
I appreciate you!
New
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Inland track may be similar, but Helene was a homegrown tho and is why I'm #allout on homegrowns.
The latest Euro Weeklies are showing only 80% of ACE for 9/1-14, a big drop from the progged 400% for 8/18-24 due to Erin to ~1/2 the ACE of its 8/18-24 prog for each of those two weeks (likely MJO related).
But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024.
But then again, it’s 80% of the very active 2005-24 climo for near peak season. So, even if the 80% were to verify well, that would still mean an active period (even though not to the degree of the Erin week) and would end up way more active than for that period in 2024. Sep 1-14 of 2024 had only ~5-6 ACE, which is a mere <20% of the ~31 ACE avg for Sep 1-14 of 2005-24. Compare that to the EW’s 80% prog, which would be ~25 ACE for Sep 1-14 of 2025 or 4-5 times as high as 2024.
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Watch the Bay of Campeche for a possible TC late this week as they often overperform: these percentages look too low
1. Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the
Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in
organization. Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the
system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
1. Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the
Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in
organization. Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the
system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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lexxnchloe
Member
Gosh Darn!! All my hoping and hoping isnt working. This is the opposite of what you want to see for a hurricane season of interest.
lexxnchloe
Member
GAWX posted about the cool weather in AUG 76/92. It seems likely we will have a cane season similar to those, minus Andrew.
12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28
1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28
1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32
The EPS has the same potential storm in its forecasts. It had this feature going out to sea as a minimal hurricane later in the forecast period.
lexxnchloe
Member
Followup to above:
0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro and GFS have dropped anything after Erin.
NCSNOW
Member
Watch the ens for Tropical Genesis Clues.
lexxnchloe
Member
JB was talking about another dead period coming. This seems to be why the EURO and GFS show nothing after Erin
Follow-up: The SW Gulf system, now Invest 98L, is rather convectively active this morning. This area often overperforms and won’t be inland til late tomorrow. It’s currently still only at 20%.
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS tries to keep the wave train going
NoSnowATL
Member
Sinking air = no hurricanes
MJO climo to keep in mind regarding Invest 98L:
Hurricanes since 1975 in Jul-Sep that hit S or C coast of TX in MJO phase 2:
-Hanna of 2020
-Harvey of 2017
-Claudette of 2003
-Bret of 1999
All S or C coast of TX H landfalls Jul-Sep since 1975 by MJO phase:
-1: Allen 1980
-2: Hanna, Harvey, Claudette, Bret
-3: Beryl 2024, Dolly 2008
-4-8: none
So, of the 7 Hs to landfall on S or C TX Jul-Sep since 1975, 4 (57%) hit during phase 2 and 6 (86%) hit during either phase 2 or 3!
The MJO is in phase 2 today and is progged to likely be in phase 2 tomorrow though phase 3 is a slight possibility. Just some climo for thought.
Hurricanes since 1975 in Jul-Sep that hit S or C coast of TX in MJO phase 2:
-Hanna of 2020
-Harvey of 2017
-Claudette of 2003
-Bret of 1999
All S or C coast of TX H landfalls Jul-Sep since 1975 by MJO phase:
-1: Allen 1980
-2: Hanna, Harvey, Claudette, Bret
-3: Beryl 2024, Dolly 2008
-4-8: none
So, of the 7 Hs to landfall on S or C TX Jul-Sep since 1975, 4 (57%) hit during phase 2 and 6 (86%) hit during either phase 2 or 3!
The MJO is in phase 2 today and is progged to likely be in phase 2 tomorrow though phase 3 is a slight possibility. Just some climo for thought.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's likely going to run out of time, but if it had another day or so over water, it could have potentially been very problematic.
Still will be a big rainfall event though.