lexxnchloe
Member
Yea, looks like another dead peak season. Amazing that Erin managed to sneak thru.
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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Followup: this looks like an AEW preceding the one the last two UKMET runs had:
12Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 16.4N 58.4W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 16.4N 58.4W 1009 32
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Invest 98L up to 40% from 20%: recon in there now
Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS has a follow up storm
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And it is a potent storm at that sitting over the Bahamas! If this happens, this will have plenty of people along the Southeast coast paying attention. This would also be the F storm on the name list. I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for this to happen for two reasons: 1. It is the GFS forecast model showing this. 2. This is more than ten days away.
18z GFS had a rare Georgia hurricane landfall! If this ever happened it would be insane
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS Probably wont either, or it will be much weaker
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS has follow-ups again
-Just for the record fwiw, the 6Z GFS hits Daytona on Aug 29 (way out at 2 weeks)
-Much more statistically significant than just a fantasyland op run, its ensemble is unsettlingly pretty active in/near the SE US during Aug 26-30. Here’s a snapshot as of hour 294 (12Z on 8/27):
-During this active period, GEFS has the MJO in/near phase 5. It’s not either of the 2 most active phases for H hits per day during Jul-Sep since 1975 (phases 2 and 8), but phase 5 has had the 3rd highest ratio of hits/day.
- During phase 5, these 10 Hs hit the Conus: Francine (2024), Ike (2008), Humberto (2007), Ophelia (2005), Isabel (2003), Bertha (1996), Fran (1996), Bob (1991), Elena (1985), and Babe (1977). Two areas were most impacted by these 10: NC (Ophelia, Isabel, Bertha, Fran, and Bob) and upper TX to FL panhandle (Francine, Ike, Humberto, Elena, and Babe).
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
GFS with the Shetley droughtbuster
I remember well 1996 when Bertha and Fran paid North Carolina a visit. Me and a buddy of mine who is also a storm spotter went to the coast to greet Bertha as she arrived. Going down there was not bad and once we hunkered down near Atlantic Beach, the hurricane itself was quite the experience especially when the eye passed overhead. Getting home at night was sketchy with all of the large limbs and debris that covered some of the back roads.
Fran was a different story. We were headed to the coast and when we saw what was already happening about halfway down I-40 between Raleigh and Wilmington we called no joy and turned around and went home. Looking back and considering that we were amateurs at hurricane chasing, that may have been a prudent decision.
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EPS launching a few flares as well.
lexxnchloe
Member
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Unlike the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET is back (similar to yesterday’s 12Z that I’m quoting) with a followup AEW to Erin becoming a TD at 162 and nearly to a TS at 168 just N of the Virgin Islands moving WNW. This looks like the same AEW that the 12Z GFS has but is ~500 miles further WNW than the GFS at 168, which is then only near 16N, 58W. This is the AEW causing the commotion in the SE US on the 6Z GEFS during 8/26-30:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 18.9N 62.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2025 168 19.4N 64.7W 1005 33
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro at 144
lexxnchloe
Member
EURO, GFS, UK in loose agreement
lexxnchloe
Member
I count 8 of 30 (27%) of 12Z GFS ensemble members landfalling on the Conus from TX to ME within 8/27-9. GEFS suggests the MJO will most likely then be in phase 5, a rather active phase for Conus though not as active as phases 2 and 8. This is keeping me with a moderate concern for now:
But good news is that 12Z Euro like the 0Z Euro has no TC. Also, it isn’t on the 12Z CMC. So, we’ll see. I already noted the 12Z UKMET having it.
But good news is that 12Z Euro like the 0Z Euro has no TC. Also, it isn’t on the 12Z CMC. So, we’ll see. I already noted the 12Z UKMET having it.
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lexxnchloe
Member
Wont develop unless GFS and EURO agree on development.
Shaggy
Member
We just went through this with Erin. You didn't think she would form either but she did.
Patience
lexxnchloe
Member
We will see. When they both agree then its likely. Right now with EURO showing nada its not happening.
lexxnchloe
Member
GAWX has a dilemma. GFS says 100+winds, tornados and storm surge
Euro says partly cloudy with an isolated shower
Euro says partly cloudy with an isolated shower
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Woof, the GFS showed this possibility again?
I'll believe it when we're within 144 and there's a track straight at Georgia, but I swear it'd be just my luck lol for me to shrug at waves coming off Africa...only to be rudely greeted with a rare GA landfall that may end up being just as problematic as the "homegrown" was in late September last year.
Really, if anything develops, I suspect it won't head straight towards Georgia though and will probably turn into a problem as the "F storm" in the Gulf or involving the Carolinas.
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lexxnchloe
Member
AI has nada. Phantom storm
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Speaking of that storm, the GEFS is "extremely" active in this run at day 10:
That's two happy hour OP runs in a row though with a landfall that would be very rare...
That's two happy hour OP runs in a row though with a landfall that would be very rare...
Also 8” of rainfall leading to widespread freshwater flooding on top of 12” I’ve already gotten this month.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
What the GFS is showing isn't from a phantom wave, it's just that the Euro hasn't been developing it. There's enough information here imo for the NHC to probably put a lemon on the next wave from Africa in a few days, but hopefully it ends up not developing because I imagine that if it does, it's going to be an issue in 2 weeks time for "someone."
Lex, you are a clown. One post its "Right now with EURO showing nada its not happening" or, "Wont develop unless GFS and EURO agree on development" then the next is "AI has nada". Models have no idea whats going on 96 hours from now. I am so thankful you do not post 720 hr or 384 hr maps as often anymore. Now you need to stop with dismissing model runs you do not like because a hurricane does not hit your back yard.
0Z UK is similar to the 12Z with a TS N of the Leewards moving WNW:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.6N 56.6W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 132 15.6N 56.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 22.08.2025 144 16.3N 58.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 22.08.2025 156 18.1N 60.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 23.08.2025 168 19.4N 63.3W 1005 38
Brent
Member
There's a cat 4 in the Atlantic on August 16th. If you're still complaining about how bad the season is I give up
There's been many seasons the entire year had none so stop complaining
There's been many seasons the entire year had none so stop complaining
NWMSGuy
Member
Will be interesting to watch this second storm for us further west in what the GFS has been showing for the past several runs. Showing solutions from the East Coast to potentially Texas if a storm was to develop. It’s that time of year. 
Of course, her idea of “bad” isn’t the same as most people’s.
Due to Erin ACE is now rapidly rising with 2025 about to cross median (of last 75) and should cross mean tomorrow. 2025 could reach top 20 by Mon and top 15 by Tue or Wed.
Brent
Member
It's gonna be hard to top this one I think on satellite appearance
1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep.
2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.
3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.
4. 2020 (180) 8/26
5. 2019 (132) 8/30
6. 2018 (133) 9/10
7. 2017 (225) 8/25
8. 2016 (141) 8/30
———
2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).
2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.
3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.
4. 2020 (180) 8/26
5. 2019 (132) 8/30
6. 2018 (133) 9/10
7. 2017 (225) 8/25
8. 2016 (141) 8/30
———
2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).
Surprised no one posted the 6z GFS. Insane weenie run. Category 4 into Galveston. Imagine the surge. On the 20th anniversary of Katrina no less
Brent
Member
There's been a pretty considerable signal for a threat in that timeframe on the ensembles
Maybe unrelated but people keep talking about some big front here at the same time
GeorgiaGirl
Member
So far in the 12z GFS, the potential next threat takes a big hit from Hispaniola, which at least should be a saving grace for the US.
Edit: nvm, it somehow ends up missing land involving Cuba and is rebuilding right now. I'll post the end finish.
Edit: nvm, it somehow ends up missing land involving Cuba and is rebuilding right now. I'll post the end finish.
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