Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies have Sept week 3 (9/15-21) for the first time. It’s near the very active 2005-24 avg. Regarding progged ACE in Sept: after a well BN 1st week and a moderately BN week 2, week 3 is significantly more active and actually has the most ACE of any of the 4 weeks by a good margin starting with the final week of August.

This is giving me flashbacks to 2024 as this is at least hinting at a Sept resembling last Sept, which had a much more active 2nd half than first half. I’m guessing that this prog of relative quiet in week 1 transitioning to normal active in week 3 is MJO related.

Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts:
8/25-31: 9-10
9/1-7: 5-6
9/8-14: 8-10
9/15-21: 13-15

 

[jrips27]

The Atlantic SST configuration has turned quite favorable-looking (for TC development) over the last couple weeks, in large part driven by reduced trades over the Caribbean.In fact, 2025 now ranks #7 in terms of MDR SST anomaly (with the tropics mean anomaly removed to bias correct for climate trends).2010 0.996250992023 0.749654292024 0.64659561995 0.621191562005 0.594340621998 0.518180192025 0.49122003 0.4752881999 0.410415562017 0.35969672All the other years in the Top 10 on this date reached "hyperactive" activity levels in terms of ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). The Atlantic definitely has done some catching up after a slow start (thanks to #Erin), but TBD what the back half of the season holds after a potentially quiet couple weeks ahead.

Feels like it’s only a matter of time before something is going to take advantage of the Caribbean

 

[lexxnchloe]

Feels like it’s only a matter of time before something is going to take advantage of the Caribbean

Maybe OCT. Will be really hard with a deep trof in the east.

 

[Brent]

Feels like it’s only a matter of time before something is going to take advantage of the Caribbean

I'm really feeling like that's our best chance to get a legit threat

It's gonna be very hard from the east with all these big troughs which are only gonna get more likely as the weeks go on