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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

I dont think Rick Knabb has seen the latest GFS. He is talking about ridging all across the ATL when the ridge is replaced with a trof off the coast. Also, he just said the models are showing this latest rain and trof over the SE is the last and the pattern is going to change. However, the 18Z GFS shows a repeat of the pattern with yet another trof-low over the SE with lots of rain.

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JB says it. Watch the eastern GOM. Very often when a major cane threatens the US a weak storm forms ahead of it


That's like saying during peak hurricane season, of all times of the year for this to happen, that a tropical storm is followed by a hurricane that's followed by another tropical storm that is once again followed by a major hurricane with only one of them making landfall.
 
0Z UK has it again and it’s stronger (TS) though it’s further N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.0N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 132 22.0N 54.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.3N 57.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 156 25.5N 59.1W 1007 41
0000UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.8N 61.6W 1006 44
 
945mb lurking east of the Bahamas at 240. Last few frames it was turning NNW but looks like the ridge is starting to build back in over the east coast so wonder if we will see a move back towards the SE coastline
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945ish heading into Morehead City. Still 11-12 days away but obviously this would be bad
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0Z Euro: MH passes 150 miles E of NC 8/21 and then hits Cape Cod/E ME 8/22-3 as weakening H.
 
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